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jstoesz
ParticipantHe is most certainly going to die.
Then again, Reinhold Messner didn’t die, but his brother sure did.
ParticipantCheck out this guy…he goes by the swiss machine
Now that is fitness.
ParticipantThis game has been going a long time in ca. My parents doubled their condo sales price in 1 year… That was the 70s. It bought them a nice home in mn with the proceeds. Why would this mentality change with one set back. We are talking a century of irrational exuberance. LA used to be a wasteland before the speculators and buerau of reclamation came in and remade the whole area. It’s in the cultural DNA.
ParticipantCrossfitt is legit…too legit to quit.
But set a goal. Run a marathon, climb Whitney in a day, or chop a cord in one sitting. Now that is exercise. I was blessed with bulky Norwegian genes, but I long to be able to go the distance long after it has gotten dark and cold and I have run out of food and water. look up Peter croft for inspiration, a freaking mountain machine.
I am thinking about entering the clidesdale division of the catalina marathon. We shall see.
With these giantitist genes I will be lucky to live to 60 without some St. Bernard affliction.
Participantmaybe I am more durable than some, but what is with Californians and weather. Every season has its highlights. Man I miss the bathwater summer lakes and the winter cross country skiing from your backdoor.
Freak…Christmas is approaching and it was 80 a couple days ago up here. I can’t get in the christmas spirit without some frigid temps…
November 2, 2011 at 11:30 PM in reply to: Buying again, 2 years after Short Sale – questions for you pros #732100Participantgreat post eaves. You have eloquently stated what I was thinking.
There is a certain lack of introspection, and learning from past mistakes in SMH’s posts that makes one a bit frustrated. Makes me think that we are doomed to repeat past indulgences if this is the attitude of most.
With that said, SMH, I am sympathetic to your points. Strategic default seems smart to me in general, and if I were caught in the trap of owing 6 figures, I would default too. My credit isn’t worth that much. You were operating as a rational being. You were still honoring the terms of your previous contract. You are not breaking the law, and if some lender is so stupid as to give you more money…well we are really screwed.
I, and probably many others here, are just really frustrated with the view many Californians (who are not alone) hold regarding home appreciation. I guess I can not blame them. This game of insane housing appreciation in CA has been going for a very long time. It didn’t start at the turn of the 21st century.
It is that irrational exuberance that is so stupid…that housing will make you money. And sadly this view point did not die in CA with the last bust. Only productive assets should make you money.
ParticipantI just bought a cord of firewood. That would take me an unimaginable amount of time to split and haul. A cord of wood is a lot of wood.
ParticipantI saw that house kicking around the market for the last 2 years at very low prices.
I always figured there was either something seriously wrong with it, or there were real shenanigans going on.
who knows…
ParticipantI love this article.
Democracy is scary to the elites…
Its power in the hands of the uncultured and self interested.
Democracy scares me too, but better to have democratic control of a ineffective entity than no control of an effective entity.
ParticipantCan I offer a suggestion.
I love the mountains and adventure, so I think in these terms. For me, when I am looking to kick my workouts into high gear, I think in terms of preparing for a goal. Looking pretty for me is not sufficient motivation, but kayaking a new river or climbing a new peak gets the job done.
Currently, I am hoping to climb epinephrine in Red Rocks over thanksgiving. Its and 18 pitch 2000 ft climb done in a day. Mostly filled with challenging and scary chimneys. There are many stories of people spending an unplanned night and drinking water from a stagnant pot hole. If I am to accomplish this goal, I need to get my butt in gear. My ankle is not helping the matter though.
So I know you love biking, so but your training regiment in those terms.
Dedicate yourself to riding a century, or completing an Olympic triathlon. If you have a goal in the not too distant future, you can motivate yourself to sticking with it.
For me at least, my exercise wains without that drive towards getting to the next step in my progression.
Kick some ass, and train twice daily if that is where your ambition leads.
Participantdeleted
Participant[quote=lifeizfunhuh][quote=jstoesz][quote=AN][quote=jstoesz]read up on how Argentina’s home prices fared through their last serious bout with hyper-inflation.
Things are far from a sure bet.[/quote]
Thanks for pointing me to Argentina’s experience w/ hyper-inflation. According to Wikipedia:[quote=wiki]Argentina
Argentina went through steady inflation from 1975 to 1991. At the beginning of 1975, the highest denomination was 1,000 pesos. In late 1976, the highest denomination was 5,000 pesos. In early 1979, the highest denomination was 10,000 pesos. By the end of 1981, the highest denomination was 1,000,000 pesos. In the 1983 currency reform, 1 Peso argentino was exchanged for 10,000 pesos. In the 1985 currency reform, 1 austral was exchanged for 1,000 pesos argentinos. In the 1992 currency reform, 1 new peso was exchanged for 10,000 australes. The overall impact of hyperinflation: 1 (1992) peso = 100,000,000,000 pre-1983 pesos.[/quote]
Even if housing price dip nominally, if the currency weaken at a much faster rate due to inflation, then you still come out ahead. Which, I think is what lifeizfunhuh is trying to say. A 1000 peso in 1975 is equivalent to 1M peso in 1983. If we see this kind of inflation, everything that have fixed rate interest will look dirt cheap in the future. Even if we don’t see hyper inflation like Argentina, if we see inflation like we experienced in the US in the 70s, it will still be dirt cheap to pay back with much weaker currency.[/quote]That was exactly the article I was referring to. I saw it on the Gonzolo Lira blog
My point was that it is not so simple. Lifeisfunhuh, was making the point that A leads to B. Except, it is far from that simple. There are many times when inflation has crushed peoples buying power, and ability to borrow. They now have less to spend on housing and interest so that they can keep eating.
This is economics we are talking here. If you are predicting the future, you are either stupid, delusional, or a combination of the two.
.[/quote]I respectfully disagree on the “predicting the future” remark. I agree that in free markets predicting the future is folly. However, markets for almost all things in finance are no longer free-flowing. To the contrary, it is a rigged casino. Case in point: nearly all major bank trading desks have near perfect trading records.
As someone famously said “I don’t care IF the markets are rigged, as long as I know HOW they are rigged so I can play along.” The House Rules of monetary policy REQUIRE significant inflation. It is both the only mathematical outcome, and also the only historical one as well.
The question is not IF, but when, and how much. While I’m not stupid or delusional enough to think I can predict the future of a particular stock, bond, or other asset class, I CAN be certain that the value of the cash I keep in the bank is, and will continue deteriorating at an unacceptable rate. From this premise I can make appropriate decisions on what assets to purchase with that cash. Whether those assets go “up” or “down” is not the issue, and is not something I am trying to predict.[/quote]
Seems to me commodities might be more inline with your thinking if you are hedging against inflation…its more liquid.
ParticipantI doubt I disagree with you AN, at least I am not trying too. Fun just said something that struck me as overly optomistic. Now might be a good time, but I sincerely doubt it’s a sure thing.
My statement was meant to convey self doubt. You can think something and be right about it, but still get clobbered. Timing…
Participant[quote=AN][quote=jstoesz]read up on how Argentina’s home prices fared through their last serious bout with hyper-inflation.
Things are far from a sure bet.[/quote]
Thanks for pointing me to Argentina’s experience w/ hyper-inflation. According to Wikipedia:[quote=wiki]Argentina
Argentina went through steady inflation from 1975 to 1991. At the beginning of 1975, the highest denomination was 1,000 pesos. In late 1976, the highest denomination was 5,000 pesos. In early 1979, the highest denomination was 10,000 pesos. By the end of 1981, the highest denomination was 1,000,000 pesos. In the 1983 currency reform, 1 Peso argentino was exchanged for 10,000 pesos. In the 1985 currency reform, 1 austral was exchanged for 1,000 pesos argentinos. In the 1992 currency reform, 1 new peso was exchanged for 10,000 australes. The overall impact of hyperinflation: 1 (1992) peso = 100,000,000,000 pre-1983 pesos.[/quote]
Even if housing price dip nominally, if the currency weaken at a much faster rate due to inflation, then you still come out ahead. Which, I think is what lifeizfunhuh is trying to say. A 1000 peso in 1975 is equivalent to 1M peso in 1983. If we see this kind of inflation, everything that have fixed rate interest will look dirt cheap in the future. Even if we don’t see hyper inflation like Argentina, if we see inflation like we experienced in the US in the 70s, it will still be dirt cheap to pay back with much weaker currency.[/quote]That was exactly the article I was referring to. I saw it on the Gonzolo Lira blog
My point was that it is not so simple. Lifeisfunhuh, was making the point that A leads to B. Except, it is far from that simple. There are many times when inflation has crushed peoples buying power, and ability to borrow. They now have less to spend on housing and interest so that they can keep eating.
This is economics we are talking here. If you are predicting the future, you are either stupid, delusional, or a combination of the two.
As a parting contrarian statement…markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
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