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jstoesz
Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=jstoesz]you guys were talking about a neighborhood…rich’s charts are county wide.
Now have the incomes of those living in that neighborhood of clairemont gone up? That is harder data to find…
Here is the current.
http://realestate.aol.com/92117-neighborhood
Wow 7.7X annual household income…that’s real affordable![/quote]
I am not disagreeing with your charts at all. I am just saying that a lot has changed
I pointed out Rich’s graph and you made the point that it was county-wide and not really relevant. I simply picked a neghborhood that is pretty well characterized by the charts, since it tends to be pretty close to the median over the past 20 years (maybe slightly above).
It’s not complicated. These areas are more affordable today than they were in the mid 1990’s or anytime in the past 33+ years.[/quote]
I guess people 30 years ago where cool with overpriced housing too. Or SD as a whole has gotten a lot worse. In addition, 30 years ago interest wasn’t at 3.5% either. Remember, never over pay for something no matter how cheap the money is.
My only rational justification follows.
Lets take this chosen at random closing.
home. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100051052-5321_Peyton_Pl_San_Diego_CA_92117
Its 86 price in today’s dollars is 233k…it just closed for 485k.
So either San Diego got a whole lot crappier thus making Clairemont a more attractive neighborhood by comparison to all the other parts or everyone in SD makes a lot more inflation adjusted money money thereby doubling the value of everyone’s home, yet not improving the quality of the homes (a dubious supposition). Either that or that chart is not representative of Clairemont…
Participant[quote=UCGal][quote=jstoesz]yeah but that is true for every older neighborhood in the country…
Imported retirees bring in new money which skews the data.
Look no further than carmel valley (aka tract home hell) to find crazy overpriced, non-retiree neighborhoods.
There is a small argument for prop 13 screwing us, I am just not persuaded by the magnitude of the effect.[/quote]
Carmel Valley (92130) – avg age of the HOME is 7 years. So the vast majority of owners moved there in the past decade.
Clairemont (92117) – avg age of the HOME is 43 years old. It stands to reason that there are more owners that have been there fore decades.
In other words – it doesn’t matter what my neighbor who just bought paid for their house, if I bought 20 years ago. But if it’s a new neighborhood – everyone paid current (high) prices.[/quote]
Maybe I am being obtuse, but what are you getting at? Are you saying a home is only worth what the next buyer is willing to pay?
Participant[quote=UCGal][quote=jstoesz]yeah but that is true for every older neighborhood in the country…
Imported retirees bring in new money which skews the data.
Look no further than carmel valley (aka tract home hell) to find crazy overpriced, non-retiree neighborhoods.
There is a small argument for prop 13 screwing us, I am just not persuaded by the magnitude of the effect.[/quote]
Carmel Valley (92130) – avg age of the HOME is 7 years. So the vast majority of owners moved there in the past decade.
Clairemont (92117) – avg age of the HOME is 43 years old. It stands to reason that there are more owners that have been there fore decades.
In other words – it doesn’t matter what my neighbor who just bought paid for their house, if I bought 20 years ago. But if it’s a new neighborhood – everyone paid current (high) prices.[/quote]
Maybe I am being obtuse, but what are you getting at? Are you saying a home is only worth what the next buyer is willing to pay?
Participant[quote=UCGal][quote=jstoesz]yeah but that is true for every older neighborhood in the country…
Imported retirees bring in new money which skews the data.
Look no further than carmel valley (aka tract home hell) to find crazy overpriced, non-retiree neighborhoods.
There is a small argument for prop 13 screwing us, I am just not persuaded by the magnitude of the effect.[/quote]
Carmel Valley (92130) – avg age of the HOME is 7 years. So the vast majority of owners moved there in the past decade.
Clairemont (92117) – avg age of the HOME is 43 years old. It stands to reason that there are more owners that have been there fore decades.
In other words – it doesn’t matter what my neighbor who just bought paid for their house, if I bought 20 years ago. But if it’s a new neighborhood – everyone paid current (high) prices.[/quote]
Maybe I am being obtuse, but what are you getting at? Are you saying a home is only worth what the next buyer is willing to pay?
Participant[quote=UCGal][quote=jstoesz]yeah but that is true for every older neighborhood in the country…
Imported retirees bring in new money which skews the data.
Look no further than carmel valley (aka tract home hell) to find crazy overpriced, non-retiree neighborhoods.
There is a small argument for prop 13 screwing us, I am just not persuaded by the magnitude of the effect.[/quote]
Carmel Valley (92130) – avg age of the HOME is 7 years. So the vast majority of owners moved there in the past decade.
Clairemont (92117) – avg age of the HOME is 43 years old. It stands to reason that there are more owners that have been there fore decades.
In other words – it doesn’t matter what my neighbor who just bought paid for their house, if I bought 20 years ago. But if it’s a new neighborhood – everyone paid current (high) prices.[/quote]
Maybe I am being obtuse, but what are you getting at? Are you saying a home is only worth what the next buyer is willing to pay?
Participant[quote=UCGal][quote=jstoesz]yeah but that is true for every older neighborhood in the country…
Imported retirees bring in new money which skews the data.
Look no further than carmel valley (aka tract home hell) to find crazy overpriced, non-retiree neighborhoods.
There is a small argument for prop 13 screwing us, I am just not persuaded by the magnitude of the effect.[/quote]
Carmel Valley (92130) – avg age of the HOME is 7 years. So the vast majority of owners moved there in the past decade.
Clairemont (92117) – avg age of the HOME is 43 years old. It stands to reason that there are more owners that have been there fore decades.
In other words – it doesn’t matter what my neighbor who just bought paid for their house, if I bought 20 years ago. But if it’s a new neighborhood – everyone paid current (high) prices.[/quote]
Maybe I am being obtuse, but what are you getting at? Are you saying a home is only worth what the next buyer is willing to pay?
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jstoesz]. . . In other words, old people are not why Clairemont is expensive.[/quote]
Agreed.
But is Clairemont “expensive” in relation to other SD neighborhoods?
If you think so, which neighborhoods do you think are a better buy??
Just curious…[/quote]
I am really struggling to come up with a better buy…it is like asking me which limb I would cut off first. It is an unpleasant choice. If I had too, I think Mt. Helix may have the greatest chance of an upside. If the city keeps growing it gets less east every day. Interesting homes on big lots prices far lower per square foot than much of the county. And I have seen some potentially fair deals out there compared to the brutal rip offs of the rest of the county.
But the whole county makes me really nervous
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jstoesz]. . . In other words, old people are not why Clairemont is expensive.[/quote]
Agreed.
But is Clairemont “expensive” in relation to other SD neighborhoods?
If you think so, which neighborhoods do you think are a better buy??
Just curious…[/quote]
I am really struggling to come up with a better buy…it is like asking me which limb I would cut off first. It is an unpleasant choice. If I had too, I think Mt. Helix may have the greatest chance of an upside. If the city keeps growing it gets less east every day. Interesting homes on big lots prices far lower per square foot than much of the county. And I have seen some potentially fair deals out there compared to the brutal rip offs of the rest of the county.
But the whole county makes me really nervous
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jstoesz]. . . In other words, old people are not why Clairemont is expensive.[/quote]
Agreed.
But is Clairemont “expensive” in relation to other SD neighborhoods?
If you think so, which neighborhoods do you think are a better buy??
Just curious…[/quote]
I am really struggling to come up with a better buy…it is like asking me which limb I would cut off first. It is an unpleasant choice. If I had too, I think Mt. Helix may have the greatest chance of an upside. If the city keeps growing it gets less east every day. Interesting homes on big lots prices far lower per square foot than much of the county. And I have seen some potentially fair deals out there compared to the brutal rip offs of the rest of the county.
But the whole county makes me really nervous
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jstoesz]. . . In other words, old people are not why Clairemont is expensive.[/quote]
Agreed.
But is Clairemont “expensive” in relation to other SD neighborhoods?
If you think so, which neighborhoods do you think are a better buy??
Just curious…[/quote]
I am really struggling to come up with a better buy…it is like asking me which limb I would cut off first. It is an unpleasant choice. If I had too, I think Mt. Helix may have the greatest chance of an upside. If the city keeps growing it gets less east every day. Interesting homes on big lots prices far lower per square foot than much of the county. And I have seen some potentially fair deals out there compared to the brutal rip offs of the rest of the county.
But the whole county makes me really nervous
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jstoesz]. . . In other words, old people are not why Clairemont is expensive.[/quote]
Agreed.
But is Clairemont “expensive” in relation to other SD neighborhoods?
If you think so, which neighborhoods do you think are a better buy??
Just curious…[/quote]
I am really struggling to come up with a better buy…it is like asking me which limb I would cut off first. It is an unpleasant choice. If I had too, I think Mt. Helix may have the greatest chance of an upside. If the city keeps growing it gets less east every day. Interesting homes on big lots prices far lower per square foot than much of the county. And I have seen some potentially fair deals out there compared to the brutal rip offs of the rest of the county.
But the whole county makes me really nervous
ParticipantBrian I tend to agree on the stagnation prediction, but we are so volatile here. And it has happened in other locations.
Detroit imploded…
ParticipantBrian I tend to agree on the stagnation prediction, but we are so volatile here. And it has happened in other locations.
Detroit imploded…
ParticipantBrian I tend to agree on the stagnation prediction, but we are so volatile here. And it has happened in other locations.
Detroit imploded…
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