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joec
ParticipantI think a lot of people feel this is such a bubble, but since no one knows exactly how long it will last, everyone is too afraid to “miss out” so they put money there since they all have so much.
Unlike the early 2000s, the initial people can already get out if they wanted to (like Uber went to Goldman for IPO or strategic direction, but Goldman decided to invest instead…)…some of these new investors then are the ones who want to IPO now and sell to the general public.
Uber Closes On Another $1.6 Billion In Convertible Debt From Goldman Sachs
Nice to be Goldman to get a guaranteed 20-30% on a future “IPO Price”.
It used to be the company will sell to these Mutual funds in an “IPO”, but there is nothing “Initial” anymore.
Can’t wait for it to all collapse and would be very happy if it does since I’m getting no benefit from it and it does affect costs and everything for everyone since I believe everything is a little bit connected.
ParticipantInvesting in a single stock or any stock IMO is the stupidest thing you can do if you are going to purchase a house soon…with your down payment…
One “accounting” irregularity can destroy your lifetime of savings and if you are looking/waiting to buy a house, keep it in short term investments where you can buy a house if you find one you like.
The name of the game is not to “make” money, but to wait till you find a house you are happy living for the longer term (5, preferably a lot longer 10+ years or more even)
… Spoken as someone who HAS given professional financial advice …
ParticipantAnother thing I suspect is the government prefers low inflation since a lot of costs is tied to CPI right?
Think if all those fixed social security checks had to go up by 10% a year to all the recipients entering or are in retirement? Also, they pick and choose what is in the CPI and this is probably why it only makes up the small 2% since that’s preferable.
Housing cost is something you have to pay for, but the CPI probably includes more useless things like the decreasing cost of computers or things that you “don’t” really need to live vs. things like healthcare, education, food, gas, etc…that you can’t live without…
ParticipantKron 4 bay area news video shorts on rental prices in the bay area…
http://kron4.com/2015/05/22/tech-report-tech-boom-impacts-housing-part-2/
http://kron4.com/2015/05/20/tech-report-the-tech-boom-impacts-housing/
I suppose it’s a bit sad for people who are “stuck” with having to stay in the bay area like the medical student resident at Stanford or someone caring for an 80+ parent, but for everyone else, the majority of people can’t really afford to live there if they don’t have a place already and should really leave.
About $3k/month for a 2 bed/1 bath rental and the place talked about will raise rents after a private equity took over to $5.5k/month for the same place?
For everyone else who can leave, unless you plan to hit the IPO/acquired lottery soon, that $3k-$5k drain/month in housing is such a negative impact on your future retirement and any savings.
I used to rent for 1k/month myself.
Any bay area people here in this boat currently?
ParticipantI know if I owned a lot of real estate in prime areas here in California (Bay Area, LA, SD), I certainly wouldn’t be in a rush to sell. This is why when some folks here say things like a “bubble” is just waiting to pop/collapse, I think that’s very unlikely and it’s more wishful/hopeful thinking since they may have missed out or now have more cash to buy more.
In the short term, Rich has ran the numbers so there isn’t a bubble compared to rents and inventory…
Of course, this doesn’t cover a lot of areas some folks may be looking at (like NJ), but as an asian myself, I don’t think I could ever live in some parts of the country, let alone outside of CA. There’s the food/dining problem, groceries, and certainly discrimination when you live where you are the minority. Just don’t see a lot of the asian FOBs will ever buy in say, East or South county in SD.
Unlike the Japanese from the 80s where they imploded, the Chinese and Indians actually have a desire to leave their country I think so as their kids grow up, they’d want to 1) shelter their assets from their home country and 2) attend college here.
At least my parents have a lot of places so maybe it’ll work out for me in 30 years also.
ParticipantThe Japanese are very different in terms of Chinese or Indians coming to live in America. Outside of Japan, the largest Japanese population is actually in Brazil.
If you look around Asian communities, there are actually very few Japanese people in general compared to the other Asian ethnic races. There is just not a huge desire to “leave” Japan compared to people living in China or India.
There are a fair amount of Japanese in LA, but those tend to be from Hawaii I think so they are already Americanized.
With such a large and upcoming middle class growing in China, and a strong desire to send their kids to the US for college (India too), etc…which in turn allows the kids to get jobs here and and eventually have their parents move over, this will put upward pressure on various communities that these people desire to live in. I think in this type of low interest rate environment, real estate in prime areas seems like a better long term hold just due to the demographics of people buying/moving in certain areas.
Prices sound very silly to us here in SD, but compared to places in metro areas in China, Hong Kong, Europe, and the bay area, it’s still pretty affordable for what you get.
May 17, 2015 at 6:19 PM in reply to: NEw construction: builder upgrades and selling price question #786356ParticipantMy guess is they make the bulk of the extra money in these upgrades…
I’ve seen most people just buy closer to the bottom list price without many upgrades and just live with the cheap stuff, then after a few years, replace it.
They don’t give you any credit if you don’t so you might as well use the cheap carpet or what not for a few and upgrade in 5.
The things dealing with extra rooms, baths, etc…are probably worth not having to deal with changing the floor plan though so those are probably worth the upgrade prices.
With young kids, you also are glad to see the carpet get all messed up and imagine when you will replace all of it when they’re more grown up.
ParticipantI would guess nearly everyone in easy to sell areas would definitely throw out offers which have a sale of existing property contingency.
Just seems like a mess to have to deal with that.
I’d suggest just selling and renting if they really “NEED” to move to something bigger.
ParticipantIs being a landlord really that bad in expensive family based areas? We’re not talking about the ghetto here and for places which rent for 4k/month+ to families who have to come down with the security deposit, have a decent paying job, etc etc etc…It doesn’t seem like you will need to be as afraid as people make it out to be.
Again, I only see what is around me…but as my parents used to have some more bad area properties when we were growing up in the bay area where you CAN get shot, family oriented places around here is a cake walk.
I would guess most of these newer ish homes in Carmel Valley should have no trouble renting to high single or dual income families who just wants to live/work, etc.
As bad as it is to be a landlord, I’m guessing the +1-2k/month cash flow makes it relatively easy to live with some pain/work (I’m only talking about people who bought long ago or nearer to the bottom).
And yes, I’m only talking about certain areas and not everyplace since I certainly have no interest in renting in East or South SD myself.
Participant[quote=flu]Kev, that’s the problem if you’re doing contracting gigs. They hire you only to solve an immediate problem, and often times they don’t care about quality, so it’s about cost. And you got a bunch of people who claim they know enterprise java very well and offer to do it cheaply, when in reality they aren’t that good. The entire consulting thing is just seedy, a hustling industry between recruiters and employers. Enterprise java has been around for ages, and there’s nothing really “new” about it, so you have a bunch of people that know how to do it “good enough”, and most contracting positions don’t care *that* much about quality.
It’s a completely different scenario if you are hired as an FTE by a company that values software engineering. For most contracting that is available to most people, it’s nowhere near as lucrative as having a good FTE position these days with a decent package..unless you plan on cheating on your taxes as a contractor. I say “most” contracting positions, because “most” consulting positions are cost driven, not driven because you know something exceptional that others don’t.
If you’re going to consider the bay area, I’d consider trying to get an FTE position instead of going the contracting route. Either pick a contracting position that can lead to a FTE position, or just try to get an FTE position, no matter if it kinda sucks…After about 1-2 years, you build a reputation and a resume, you can hop to a better company, and continue to build a better resume. It’s not uncommon to hop up there every 1-2 years. And then after you’ve built a credible resume, you can come back to SoCal and get a better position.
Some recruiter just contacted me about a contract enterprise senior java position here in san diego, that is open to full time employment later. I didn’t dig deeper, because I’ve left enterprise java awhile ago (though I can still do it if needed),..PM me if you want that lead. I’m not sure why recruiters keep contacting me about something I haven’t done in a few years….[/quote]
I think the points about contracting are spot on. As you can imagine, most companies with some competitive advantage wouldn’t want to outsource/contract their most important code or features.
Other than security I think, most people would rather hire FTE’s or the founder themselves would work on the secret sauce that their business runs on.
When I was looking for consulting type work in the BA in the old days, it just felt really “dirty” and you sorta felt like a cheap whore just filling in a role that no one else on the team really wanted to do. If it’s exciting, fun, brand new, you can bet someone else would rather do it IMO.
Some skills require special skills, but I’d guess at most places, someone on most high end tech teams probably already “could” do it, but just rather hire someone else to do the lame stuff since it’s cheaper and they don’t have to give up equity or really waste time hiring. I think if you’re awesome or work hard, good work ethic, etc etc etc, most companies would probably want to hire you right after anyways.
I started my career consulting and got hired as a FTE pre-IPO way in the day…work after that was easy to find till I left.
Best thing with contracting is when you go home, you’re home! 🙂 No more work (unless you get called in and get even more pay I’d guess) and hours are easy.
Participant[quote=Blogstar]I have read most of this thread at one time or another and am considering an instrument for the kids.
Someone recommended an electronic keyboard with weighted keys. If anyone can help, would that be something like this? http://www.amazon.com/Casio-PX150-Weighted-Digital-Supply/dp/B00AC4YLKE/ref=sr_1_9?s=musical-instruments&ie=UTF8&qid=1431723557&sr=1-9&keywords=88+key+keyboard+weighted+keys
Would a synthesizer with all the different modes be a good thing to offer the kids. We visited a friend this weekend and her son had one of those and was having all kinds of fun with classical music, and just being creative.[/quote]
One recommendation you should consider is if you used to play, go and touch and play the keys before buying a digital piano.
I tested a few and some just didn’t feel right to me.
Also, some digital pianos can’t be played fast or used by advanced pieces because the key action isn’t made for that and you’ll have to upgrade if your kids continue playing.
Just something to consider I guess. Check with the teacher too as suggested if they plan to take lessons. Good thing is with more than 1 kid, there is a higher chance someone would enjoy it more and play longer.
ParticipantI think flu’s point is people who bought in the past downturn or refinanced are in no “financial pressure” to sell. Most had to come up with down payment since there was no ninja loans at that time and their income was verified hard.
I bought in 4S and we paid in the 600s so if things are at the 800s or 900s now, then with what our mortgage is compared to rents (all rents I see now are higher than my mortgage even considering CFD fees)…You add in tax benefit of a mortgage and the cost to carry your home is much less for the buyer from the recent downturn.
Since the buyer I described above (bought during the downturn) above can rent out their home to a family for less than forcing a low sale price, they will just pull the home from the market if they don’t feel like they can’t get the price they want.
Some might sell still to just get rid of it, but as I mentioned before, I know of a few people in the area renting who has left with no desire to sell since the rent easily covers their mortgage and where else are you gonna put the money?
Of course, there will be people who DIDN’T buy closer to the bottom and there are divorces, job transfers where people have to leave…and that’s why there are transactions, but if you’re 200k+, maybe you aren’t hurting too bad…and, if it’s not a divorce, you can still rent it out.
ParticipantTo out of state students, UC is pretty much private…Downsides are lack of classes when you want and (my experience) tougher to drop classes if things get tough to save your GPA. You can withdraw the whole quarter, but you just lost a few thousand to redo a quarter.
If my kids were given a full ride, I’d definitely push for the private CA places if they were a good fit for them.
ParticipantThe power of the stay at home mom or dad is that they can shuffle them to all the activities to keep them ahead of everyone else.
I know plenty of Indian families who send their kids to Kumon, Mathnasium, physical sport activities, musical instruments, etc etc etc…
Also, having a stay at home mom means more time to read with the child, supervising their every move, etc…
When you have your kids in a day care or after school thing, it’s never as great since you don’t have that 1 on 1 attention. This is where the higher single income person who can afford to have a spouse stay home allows them to use time to help their kids get further.
International competition for work is a lot tougher since they are simply more hungry. I was watching Bloomberg and they interviewed some lady who was some VC in some business startup funding thing and the thing she hated the most is all the “entitled” workers she sees compared to the international hungry worker.
I think ultra high level success (billions, president of the US, head of corporations…) depends on connections mostly. Doesn’t mean you can’t do well in life, but the networking connections make it easier to get hired, most anything.
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