[hipmatt]

Well, I think gold will drop little here and there, bat as some investors wise up, they will be pulling their money from stocks/funds, and they will get on the gold bandwagon too. It only makes sense. The dollar is falling, and other govs. are buying up gold. I still see gold going much higher. If gold really is a debt security, then think of how much we should own it.

[hipmatt]

Heres a excerpt:

Then, they had Paul Volker, who crushed inflation. Today, we’ve got Ben Bernanke, who embraces it. Then, they had a national debt of just $845 billion. Today, it’s between $8.2 trillion and $53 trillion, depending on who you believe.

Then, we had a hostage crisis in Iran. It ended. Today, we’ve got Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Nigeria, Afghanistan… and an unending “war on terror.” Plus bin Laden still hiding in caves and Chavez mouthing off in oil-rich Venezuela.Then, you paid 78 cents for gas. Last summer, it hit as high as $3.20. Oil cost $38 per barrel. Today, it’s closer to $70. Then, the oil shortage was political. Today, it’s physical – supply just can’t meet higher demand.

Then, the weak dollar still bought more than the dollar today. And our only real economic competitor was Japan. Now you’ve got China, India, the euro… and a resurgence in Japan.

Brace yourself. Because while this might spell doom for most Wall Street stocks, it virtually guarantees a global resurgence for resource investments, silver and especially gold. Protect your wealth and grow your riches with the cutting-edge resource recommendations in Outstanding Investments .

Read on for more details…

[hipmatt]

In this scenario, I would rent, then invest my money where it would out pace the CPI or the Dow if possible.

[hipmatt]

I think you answered your own question when you said that the lender and RE agent told you to buy.
Seriously, I don’t care what you do, but buying is the single worst financial move one could make in so cal right now.

[hipmatt]

DesperateBuyer, thanks for responding, but you are all wrong.

I think its safe to say that when some housing quadruples in value in less than 10 years, you have in fact a bubble. In Temecula at least, some homes back in 1996 were under $100k, the same homes in 2005 was just over $400k(Paloma Del Sol single story 3/2).

Then you talk of a huge collapse in the dollar which is true, but you have to have a huge increase in wages for your theory to make at least a little sense. I don't see wages quadrupling or even doubling since 1996. Do you? Teachers, Police, Fire Dept., Retail, Food industry, health care, etc… you thing that they should go and buy that million dollar home, cause it'll be worth it due to a falling dollar???? HAHA You assume that everyone living in SD county makes well over six figures. That will be interesting, because thats the minimum you'll need to make to buy a place with current prices.

 But would I suggest taking on a fixed rate mortgage right now and buying a house you planned to live in for some time? Absolutely. Owning a home IS the American Dream and if we see the price inflation that I expect is going to shortly be upon us, then a fixed rate mortgage at today's low interest rate will not seem so bad at all….

 Hmm.. with what money?  First time buyers have no down payment.  All they are used to is 100% financing!!!  You call that owning a home???  This is your American Dream?  Getting married to a $2500 plus payment is a great privilege? 

Indeed, the only bubble is the group of "housing bubble" message boards, which I do predict will prove to have no intrinsic or lasting value. Instead they will only serve to scare some people away from buying a house and living the miserable life of a renter. A true shame in my opinion.

 What is a shame is that my good friends didn't listen to me 2 years ago.  They wouldn't be facing a huge payment thats about to reset even higher.  They would be living in a much nicer home than the 2/2 that they currently "own".  They wouldn't be panicking as homes aren't even selling for the same as what they paid for theirs.  And yes, I too am a renter, though hardly miserable.  Sold in 05 and safely invested the money.  I live in a beautiful home close to work, and my investment is going up in value, while all the neighbors that own next to me are loosing cash every day, listing their homes, only to pull them off the market due to inactivity and low ball offers.  Now thanks for visiting our site, but I think they are missing you over at CNBC.

[hipmatt]

A closed escrow is completely different than a “sold out” phase from the sales agents mouth. Just wait and see how many of these homes close escrow. The local tracts here always say a phase is sold out, but then they give you a list of all the homes that fell out of escrow. Ans since people don’t have to sign loan docs until a few days before move in, I bet there will be many more falling out of escrow.

[hipmatt]

I would sell your home if you can. I think thatis the smart thing to do. You say that you like SD, I would rent in your favorite SD area, something close to work. You may find that in a few years you can afford that home in SD that you dream of.

I STRONGLY encourage you to STAY AWAY from Tem, Mur, Winc as they are extremely overpriced too, and the commute is gonna get worse, plus gas has no where to go but up. Your quality of life would suffer. Traffic is horrible up here(I live here), and the people are getting crazy. Don’t buy into a floor plan, buy into location. But right now, don’t buy anything. RENT!

[hipmatt]

I’ve noticed it too. It even seems to me that the media is trying to get well educated and level headed “fund managers and economists” to come out promoting housing and they are all “calling the bottom” and saying that the market is gonna pick back up soon. Its like they are trying to “will us” into buying a home at any measure cause everything else has failed. They need to face up to the fact that there are just too many homes out there that need occupants, and incomes aren’t going up to justify these ridiculous prices. Rates aren’t going down either, and sub prime is vanishing. They seem to be grasping at straws, and have resorted to trolling on our sites.

[hipmatt]

My guess is 40-50% off of summer 2005 prices in 2010 + or – one year.

[hipmatt]

Great link and I think pretty accurate. What a bunch of idiots we are. The world must be shaking their heads when they see our lifestyles and spending.

[hipmatt]

Buying a short sale now is still too early. There will be much better deals still to come. This is just the beginning. Just wait as long as you can.

[hipmatt]

Its absolutely possible we have too many homes. This is why I encourage even renters to negotiate. There are simply too many vacant homes either for sale or rent, and the prices will come down.

[hipmatt]

Good point you two above!

[hipmatt]

I would say that its a pretty bad article considering that we have a negative savings rate, and that there are very few people who can say that the save enough money. When you throw in inflation, skyrocketing medical costs that the boomers will be facing, further potential increases in oil prices, and a likely recession / stock market and housing collapse, no amount of savings is too much or has ever been.

They found that 88 percent of all households with breadwinners over age 51 had accumulated sufficient resources to finance adequate consumption in retirement. … Probably are considering their home equity as a source of "resources" which is very risky at best.

I also don't see how this can be a bad thing, because whatever these boomers eventually die with, even if it is more than they need, will be passed on to their kin, and will be consumed immediately by the next generation which is much further in debt and has much worse savings habits anyways. 

[hipmatt]

Wow, thanks for all the info, some really good posts here, and I appreciate it. I guess the question I do have is about education, and what you feel is the best route? Is there a good school in socal that I can attend or a good online school? Why is the 9 moth cert program not going to work? Thanks again to all, Matt

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