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[quote=Rich Toscano]
M1 is not the correct monetary aggregate to use here. That’s a rookie mistake. I humbly suggest you reconsider your level of expertise on this topic.

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I agree it is a mistake, but it isn’t my own. I think all monetary aggregates are worthless as indicators of future inflation in the context of developed nations with shrinking skilled workforces and growing economic inequality.

All the “OMG money supply doubled FED IS PRINTING MONEY!!!!” arguments come from the inflatadoomers.

[quote=Rich Toscano]
Along those lines — the bond market has pretty famously been terrible at predicting inflation. So citing breakevens or interest rates as “proof” that you are right is unconvincing and also a bit of an overconfidence red flag.
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I don’t agree “the bond market has pretty famously been terrible at predicting inflation.” You accuse me of immodesty, but I am the one that doesn’t presume to know better than the collective wisdom of the market. My best guess for future inflation is exactly what the market is predicting, about 1.6% per year over 5 years and 2% over 30.

I am also not the one here bringing up personal anecdotes about rising prices instead of relying on the expertise of government agencies that have been carefully measuring inflation using many methods over the past 75 years or so. I also don’t think I know better than the Fed, which IMO has been doing a really great job since 2012.

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[quote=Coronita]wait, how are you srguing theres no inflation on this thread but on the other thread talking about how rents are going to the moon???

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The rent increases are real, not artifacts of high background inflation.

Even with low overall inflation, some prices will go up a lot while others will drop.

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It’s a literal long term interest rate hedge. It would be an inflation hedge too to the extent they are correlated.

However, there’s tons of ways to hedge inflation, and I don’t think it is a particularly good one.

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Reminder: From 1995 to the present, the money supply in Japan went up more than 400%, but prices went up about 4%. Not per year, 4% total over 26 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANMM101JPM189S

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNCPIALLMINMEI

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Cleveland Fed’s inflation market-based inflation expectation measure: 1.61% per year the next five years, and 2.01% over 30 years.

But that’s booooooring. Nobody will click on that!

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations.aspx

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Wrong. In March 1947 it was 19.7%, and was last above 10% in Dec 1981.

Inflata-doomers, in addition to false claims of “record inflation” like this, also constantly change their measure. When 1-month inflation is high, they annualize. When the monthly goes down, then they go to YoY.

The click-bait peddlers that hook the inflatadoomers so easily love to have little interviews and human interest stories about high inflation outliers, but you never seem them interview some guy buying a 60 inch TV at Wal-Mart for fewer nominal dollars than a 25 inch one ten years ago and saying “Hey this deflation’s awesome!”

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More good news from 2 weeks ago: that stupid $1500 “adverse market fee” that raised conventional refi rates by .125-.25 is now GONE.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/980720.aspx

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2400 to 2800 in two years is 8.3% per year and to $2900 is 10.4% a year.

Not bad!

5k more undergrads must mean a lot more staff and faculty too. The new trolley line however will let them live off campus more easily. It seems to be a rare government project with fast paced construction.

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I had no idea Ryzen 5 had such better built in graphics as Intel chips.

Ultimately it’s not very important. ZK will probably barely notice his new PC is faster than his 4 year old one, and not notice at all the speed difference between these two PCs, unless he is doing some power user stuff like video edits.

I still use my 2011ish Gen 1 i7-890 desktop, and it really is barely any slower for most daily tasks than my shiny new Omen 25L.

The biggest difference for general office use is that the new PC does OCR of large scanned documents a ton faster than older PCs. Not sure how often people need to do giant OCR projects however.

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Gigantic UCSD housing shortage sends UTC rents up 17%:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/education/story/2021-07-18/housing-shortage-uc-san-diego

“La Jolla has been a focal point of the expansion. Since 2015, UCSD has increased its undergraduate enrollment by 5,252 — more than any other UC school. ”

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That PC looks like a great value with great specs. It is only a 90W power supply which would have been way too low a few years ago but I assume is OK now.

From a clutter standpoint you can add a 2nd 2TB HD to the inside rather than get another external. The internals are usually about $5-10 cheaper too.

The specs on their website say it supports this:

Storage Storage Support Up to 2 drives, 1x 3.5″ HDD + 1x M.2 SSD • 3.5″ HDD up to 2TB • M.2 SSD up to 512GB

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Nah my views on everything discussed here are not strongly held, they may come off that way because they’re confidently expressed as a vocational habit.

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Flu suggests something a lot more expensive than me. A 12GB external RAID would be I’d guess something like $500+ on top of the normal computer price. I had something similar for my business for about 8 years called a NAS. The NAS itself failed but not the drives inside, and I ended up parting out the drives to PCs and using a regular PC to host the office network.

The only home PC use of such size would be storing a huge collection of HD quality videos. With smart phones able to take 4k video and maybe ripping your favorite blurays that’s not an exotic requirement like it would have been a few years ago. Still it is atypical.

If you want a desktop for typical home use something like this would be great and probably provide more like 8 years of good use:

https://www.hp.com/us-en/shop/pdp/hp-slim-desktop-s01-af0134z

It has the SSD + HD setup already in it and HP is the most reliable brand in my experience for computer equipment. It also has a DVD drive and burner, which I think is still pretty useful but is becoming harder to find on new PCs.

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Wow, did one of your listings end up in the McMansion Hell blog?

I don’t have strong views on styles, I just know what’s ugly and what’s nice, and have a soft spot for Carrara marble. Now this is classy, but became a tear down because it was too small:

The Marble House In Avalon, NJ

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There are some easy software fixes for a slightly bad hard drive, which you can run by just hooking it up to a new working PC.

If those don’t work, you’re looking at costly data recovery services that will be $2,000+.

In my view the best system for regular PC users is to have an SSD as their windows C drive and use a regular HD for large seldomly used files plus as a windows backup. There are other backup options for even more important stuff, but most failures will not hit both drives at once so this will be a good setup for most people.

I had an SSD completely fail once, and Windows backup completely fixed it with just a few clicks.

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