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Flu, did you try the SSA calculator as I suggested?

I just checked mine. If I “early retire” this year and make 0 further ss contributions and start collecting ss when i am 67, I will get ~$18k per year. If I wait until I am 70, it will be ~22k.

I am sure you would be much higher than me. I only had $10k+ of social security earnings for 14 years, or 15 including this year.

I would guess you are more like 25-30 years of contributions. They use the highest 35 years to calculate the benefit.

The website also lets you get a free replacement social security card. Mine was lost a long time ago, so it was nice to get a replacement with a few clicks.

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-healthy single 30 something lifelong bachelor-

Well that was me up until March 2021.

Now I’m 40 w/preggo life partner.

Still healthy though!

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What percentage of pending sales turn into a closing? Seems to be about ~95% in 92107 over the past few years. I’d think it would be even higher in your newer area (more standard product and less surprises) and current very tight conditions.

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Curious why you need 120k in retirement with no mortgage on your primary.

25k for medical, 10k for cars is pretty rich, 5k on average for for home improvements.

That leaves 80k a year or $219/day. Easy to spend that while traveling in first world areas. $250/day of lux travel times 100 days a year comes to 25k. first class flights, 5k a year.

That then leaves 50k a year.

Your passive income likely will increase over time, even by my pessimistic assumptions for long term returns. Your medical expense will drop when you hit 65 and get medicare, and you will start getting I assume about 25k a year in social security, plus whatever your spouse gets.

I think both you and escoguy are making up reasons to delay retirement and continue working. The 120k requirement for you, the “let me deduct 30% from the value of my primary assets” for him.

I don’t mean to be judgmental with this observation, early retirement when you’re fit and have something to contribute is at least slightly immoral, so I see it as you all as inventing reasons that don’t seem to hold up to scrutiny to do the right thing morally.

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“ It certainly begs the question if going to work still makes sense.”

Pedantic alert: It raises the question!

I am in the same happy boat, I saw my net worth passively grow more than past 1.5 year than all my labor income my first 12 years in the workforce, age 16-28, and all my savings from 16 to 34.

I enjoy my work and have long term commitments to clients and staff. My earning ability and skill level is at its peak and early retirement seems wasteful. There’s also a feeling of keeping up with my peers from school, though I realize that’s foolish. It isn’t so much want to be on top, but I still want to at least keep up with the average, which I have done so far but wouldn’t if I retired.

A factor that is no longer present is that 5-10 years ago I wanted to help family members who were economically struggling. The booming economy lifted all their boats and now I am happy to see them pay off their mortgages and buy new cars.

Finally, working is more enjoyable when you don’t have to anymore.

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1 bedroom in scripps ranch with small dumpy bath and kitchen and probably lots of noise and smells from the 15: $2928/mo

https://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/d/san-diego-1bed-1bath-beautiful-3rd/7373832674.html

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Returns have been high in the past few decades because of rapid technological progress and growth in the skilled working-age population.

Tech progress is slowing however. Not in every field, but in most of them. And one by one, the working age population in developed countries has stopped growing and is now in reverse. The main exception are those with high levels of immigration, however those nations are either importing people with lower skill levels than the shrinking native population and cannibalizing the skilled population from other low-growth nations (eg., China to USA, Slovakia to Germany).

Another factor that led to strong returns in the recent past was the “great moderation” where returns became more predictable and with lower and lower inflation and market interest rates. This made long-lived assets like real estate more valuable. That trend isn’t done yet, put it’s in its fourth quarter.

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[quote=scaredyclassic]Inflation adjusted?[/quote]

No. But expected inflation is very low too.

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ucodegen, using long term US stock market returns has serious survivorship bias issues.

How did Russian stocks do from 1871? Farmland in Poland? Confederate and Third Reich bonds?

To put it another way, any asset class we have long term historical data on is cherry-picked and better than average, simply because so many asset classes had drastically negative, -100% returns.

What number to use then?

In my view, it is mistaken and often hubris to assume one’s investments will do better than treasuries. So about 2%.

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In the 20 year period from 1989 to 2009, Japan’s stock market fell a total of about 75%. It still hasn’t recovered 32 years after its 1989 peak.

There’s been no great disasters or wars or anything either. Just weak corporate profits and low economic growth.

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You can see your future SS benefit if you retire today or otherwise early on its website.

I think mine was like 20k a year from about 15 years of paying in but don’t remember exactly.

Svelte: bear markets can last much longer than recessions, and indeed last for multiple generations.

It is hard to time the market I suppose but now is not a good time to be heavy in stocks IMO.

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Neither 4% nor 8% yields are realistic assumption for long term portfolio returns.

Your specific question needs further assumptions to answer IMO like marginal utility of wealth.

As a general answer, I think the Vanguard people are smart and trustworthy and their age cohort funds are probably the best answer as to ideal risk.

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Well the place I ran the numbers for has offers more than 25% over list. Oh well!

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I see there’s something called a depreciation recapture tax of 25%. Which is still below the federal income tax rate I’m in, but higher than long term capital gains.

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The 4k/mo MM house looks great, lots of things to give it a premium: cul de sac, views, hot tub, yard with plenty of brown grass, interior looks perfect.

The condo however seems tiny and bland for 2500.

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