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gzz
ParticipantLa Jolla Palms now starts at $3240. Up 50% in 19 months.
Zillow’s rent estimates is broken because it can’t keep up.
Tenants getting mere 20% rent increases should be sending gift baskets and hand-written thank u notes.
ParticipantYou are going to burn all the good will you have earned by paying on time etc. unless you are about to move out in the next few months, pay up without complaint.
ParticipantIt shows as 18.94 on fidelity. Fidelity also reports the last day’s loss every single day, so the “day’s gain” feature on Fidelity has been broken nearly the entire war.
It traded much lower than 18.94 in London for a few more days, and then was suspended there too.
Fidelity’s balance and account values seems to switch randomly between valuation of 0 and 18.94.
Apple Stocks app shows it at 1700 roubles which comes to about $20. The Russian stock and currency markets are under government controls so not too meaningful. I’d guess it would be about 15-20 right now if tradable here.
Interestingly, there’s a US fund that is mostly Russian stocks but not suspended, CEE. It dropped from 30 to 7 when the war started and is now 10.
I remain bullish on Eastern Europe and also have a fair amount of EPOL.
ParticipantMy longs went down. My shorts went down.
YNDX was a disaster, it is still a functioning and profitable company but cannot be traded in the USA and probably my shares will be seized by Putin. In Moscow it trades for about $20. I wish! There’s certainly a chance the status quo returns and it goes to $120.
ParticipantAs of 2020 they do.
ParticipantNFLX is overvalued. The main thing they do is bundle streaming content. There’s no moat around this, and content providers like Disney, HBO, Discovery/WB and Paramount are cutting out the NFLX middleman.
Netflix is kinda like TimeWarner cable, except TW only has to compete against ATT cable and DISH.
Also, NFLX is competing 100% with Amazon. How has that worked out for other companies?
They will do fine long term, but gradually decline as just one of many streaming companies. Their margins were helped for a long time because they were the gorilla in internet distribution and could buy content at good prices. But now they have to bid against all the other services, and are locked out of a lot of the content like Disney.
ATT just spun off to its shareholders DiscoveryWB, and I will sell isoon for similar reasons while keeping ATT.
Besides competing with Amazon, Netflix also has to deal with the newer services all being willing to discount deeply to unprofitable levels to get their initial customer acquisition.
Participant“So when is 4 trillion dollar bonfire when all that money disappears?”
Yep.
All the Fed will do is very gradually swap its bond stockpile for dollars.
Bonds unlike dollars cannot be used as reserves as a base for bank loans. So in theory and classically, the fed reversing its prior policy and reducing money by replacing it with bonds is contractionary.
Now, however, the banking system isn’t short of reserves, willing but unable to make more loans.
Moreover, financial innovations has greatly reduced the significance of the difference between bonds and dollars. That’s why the Fed’s huge increase in its balance sheet didn’t much affect the real economy.
Participant“ Forget about appreciation”
No thanks. Appreciation is unforgettable. My 30k in downpayment and renovations on my primary residence 10.5 years ago resulted in an unrealized capital gain of about $1.1 million.
While it is nice to have a mostly tax deductible mortgage of $1800 on a house that would rent for about $4200, this appreciable appreciation is what I most appreciate.
ParticipantI reduced my net long in the stock market today.
Trimmed back a lot of my winners by 10-20%. Opened very small short positions in Snow, nvda, msft, unity software, and home depot. Increased my short in lyft and wework.
Went long twtr and increased my position in T. P/E of only 7!
Participant“ For a lot of competitive people money is a way of keeping score in life”
I know a lot of wealthy and competitive people, and none are that shallow. I’m sure they exist somewhere, but not too common.
My happiness level is strongly correlated with how well my family is doing and how much free time I have. Money provides the option to help on both these fronts.
Having a competitive personality is good for my litigation clients, and society since most of my work is public interest. I feel basically OK when I am in the zone, and crushing my adversaries, but it objectively is bad for me, and gave me early hypertension (135/85 area at 38 when I began diet changes, weight loss, exercise, and lisinopril)
ParticipantI just had a look at DHI’s 10q. Looks like a screaming buy to me.
I’d love some suggestions on real estate stocks to short.
I want to hedge my imprudently oversized RE portfolio by shorting overvalued RE stocks.
But I just can’t find any.
I somehow made a few percent shorting invitation homes, a SFH rental REIT. I covered it because it seemed underpriced after it fell by about 5% as RE prices rose about 25%.
My only RE short is a mall REIT, SPG. I am very bearish on malls. But even SPG doesn’t strike me as drastically overvalued. So many tech stocks have -50% margins and P/S well over 10, and quite a few aren’t even growing!
April 7, 2022 at 12:25 PM in reply to: OT: How to earn 2.59% on your money in less than 1 year, easily, liquidable too :) #824914ParticipantSDR: my RE, fixed rate mortgage and student loan debt, and stocks are all inflation hedges. I don’t need more. Bond funds are more deflation bets.
Flu: I agree muni bonds have done poorly lately, one source said they had their worst quarter since 1994. That’s why you can get closed end CA funds paying a tax free 4.6-5.2% right now. Roughly like a 10% pretax yield.
In three years if 10 year treasury rates go back to 1%, these bonds will have appreciated by about 20% on top of three years of paying tax free 5% income.
The mini rate spike in 2018 lasted even last time. Peak was 3.2% in 11/18 and bottom was 0.5% in July 2020.
The end of the pandemic stimulus bills and a return to divided government means a huge pullback in inflationary gov spending. Giant state surpluses mean less muni supply. Rich always getting richer means more muni demand.
April 6, 2022 at 7:53 PM in reply to: OT: How to earn 2.59% on your money in less than 1 year, easily, liquidable too :) #824890ParticipantI am buying Cal muni bond funds that yield about 5% tax free.
Not risk free but pretty low risk IMO.
They aren’t going to default, but further large rate increases would hurt them.
ParticipantSvelte rather than tiny bars for the kids, I suggest American gold eagles. They come in .1, .25, and .5 ounces, so as low as about $220. It is legal to make fake gold bars, though obviously not sell them as real. But even making a fake American coin is a serious federal offense that the FBI and Secret Service will both come down on. That makes coins lower risk than bars. Bars IMO have no offsetting benefits.
Another option would be $5 gold commemorative coins. The plus side of them is they mostly have a smaller markup over melt value from secondary markets, have designs that change every year, and cost about $490 from reputable online sellers. The down side is they don’t have a nice round amount of gold. They use the ancient formula from when the US was on the gold standard, so have something like .241oz.
California charges sales tax on gold and silver for purchases below $1500. So it would be a bit crazy to buy less.
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