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GoUSC
ParticipantI have lost a lot of faith in the residential mortgage/real estate industry. There is just too much bullsh*t going on. Case in point, an example of advice a mortgage broker gave to a guy looking to buy in Orange County:
“…with giving purchasing advice.. its all subjective… i could really care less what the market is doind, is all about “do i like this house, is it worth the money TO ME not OTHERS, is it a “keeper”? does it fit my budget?”
ParticipantI work in Real Estate development (Retail) so I am watching things very carefully. I have two projects under development right now (start construction very soon, both 60% leased or greater and in prime locations). The other projects we have on the books are 2+ years out through entitlements. Plus the land is owned free & clear so we can wait out the market. We have a very strong (multiple millions of sf) portfolio of existing high quality real estate that kept the company going through the 90’s.
On the personal side, I have almost all my money sitting in savings accounts earning 5-6% interest. I have maybe 5% of my portfolio in stocks and both are long term holds. I have another 20% of my portfolio in two real estate projects in Arizona & Texas. I am nervous about them a little but we don’t have extreme leverage so we can stop distributions and give rent abatement if needed (plus we have 6 months of reserves for both properties). No CC debt, and renting. I do have a car loan but it’s minimal and I only owe 40% of the KBB value (at 3% interest). God forbid I was to loose my job I could pay rent and all other expenses with the income from savings accounts.
That about sums it up. I am going into this market with eyes wide open.
ParticipantI work in Real Estate development (Retail) so I am watching things very carefully. I have two projects under development right now (start construction very soon, both 60% leased or greater and in prime locations). The other projects we have on the books are 2+ years out through entitlements. Plus the land is owned free & clear so we can wait out the market. We have a very strong (multiple millions of sf) portfolio of existing high quality real estate that kept the company going through the 90’s.
On the personal side, I have almost all my money sitting in savings accounts earning 5-6% interest. I have maybe 5% of my portfolio in stocks and both are long term holds. I have another 20% of my portfolio in two real estate projects in Arizona & Texas. I am nervous about them a little but we don’t have extreme leverage so we can stop distributions and give rent abatement if needed (plus we have 6 months of reserves for both properties). No CC debt, and renting. I do have a car loan but it’s minimal and I only owe 40% of the KBB value (at 3% interest). God forbid I was to loose my job I could pay rent and all other expenses with the income from savings accounts.
That about sums it up. I am going into this market with eyes wide open.
July 26, 2007 at 6:03 PM in reply to: My Jan 08 Puts on CFC lookin sweet after past two days….. #67974ParticipantI need to educate myself on doing puts…ARGH!!!!
July 26, 2007 at 6:03 PM in reply to: My Jan 08 Puts on CFC lookin sweet after past two days….. #68041ParticipantI need to educate myself on doing puts…ARGH!!!!
ParticipantOur economy impacts every other country in the world. We have been the consumption & debt machine that kept the whole thing swinging. Now it has come to an end and it is rippling through the global economy.
The market was down up to 450 at one point. You typically see a mini rally at the end of the day. The real story will be what happens tomorrow and Monday.
ParticipantOur economy impacts every other country in the world. We have been the consumption & debt machine that kept the whole thing swinging. Now it has come to an end and it is rippling through the global economy.
The market was down up to 450 at one point. You typically see a mini rally at the end of the day. The real story will be what happens tomorrow and Monday.
ParticipantWhile there isn’t a tipping point per se there is definately a point where the general increase trend stops increasing or bouncing along steady state and starts a long trend downwards. We might be there…but it is going to take a long time to unwind.
I still emphatically believe that prices have to unravel to more reasonable numbers inline with the economics of today. If not I give up and will just rent and be smarter for the rest of my life 🙂
ParticipantWhile there isn’t a tipping point per se there is definately a point where the general increase trend stops increasing or bouncing along steady state and starts a long trend downwards. We might be there…but it is going to take a long time to unwind.
I still emphatically believe that prices have to unravel to more reasonable numbers inline with the economics of today. If not I give up and will just rent and be smarter for the rest of my life 🙂
ParticipantI don’t know if we have reached the “tipping” point. I have noticed a lot less blinged out Hummers and Escalades on the roads. I know the ski boat, RV dealers, and auto dealers are dying out there right now. I know that homes in my neighborhood are all sitting on the market. Etc. etc. I know a correction in happening but I think it will continue very slowly. Home prices are very sticky on the way down. We will need to see some really negative job numbers for things to accelerate faster. Not discounting that though, because I think we are going to.
ParticipantI don’t know if we have reached the “tipping” point. I have noticed a lot less blinged out Hummers and Escalades on the roads. I know the ski boat, RV dealers, and auto dealers are dying out there right now. I know that homes in my neighborhood are all sitting on the market. Etc. etc. I know a correction in happening but I think it will continue very slowly. Home prices are very sticky on the way down. We will need to see some really negative job numbers for things to accelerate faster. Not discounting that though, because I think we are going to.
ParticipantSure has been fun for me too! I work in retail & mixed-use development. Gonna be slow over the next few years which is good for us as we have several large projects that will take several years to entitle.
People will foreclose on their homes and in terms of credit cards will have to curb all their future spending to pay off their credit cards. Aka American’s as a whole will have to live at their means for quite some time….
Meanwhile I am happy to be credit card debt free and renting!
ParticipantSure has been fun for me too! I work in retail & mixed-use development. Gonna be slow over the next few years which is good for us as we have several large projects that will take several years to entitle.
People will foreclose on their homes and in terms of credit cards will have to curb all their future spending to pay off their credit cards. Aka American’s as a whole will have to live at their means for quite some time….
Meanwhile I am happy to be credit card debt free and renting!
ParticipantPeoples mortgage payments have gone up, they can’t pull money out of the HELOC, so the only way they can pay for food, gas, etc. is with the credit card. At the same time they aren’t paying off their credit card bills either.
What a situation.
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