Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
garysears
ParticipantHow about this idea? We could track listings that are being manipulated up and down by 100 bucks to keep the “reduced” label. Here is one example. I have seen one or two others today. Is this what passes for being a proactive agent these days?
http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1627266
Or we could track prices that have been INCREASED and actually appear to be serious. Maybe this seller will get the higher price:
http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1643318
Finally we could make a list of all listings that DON’T claim to be a “steal” or waaaaaay below “market value” or have extremely “motivated” sellers making a plea to save them from foreclosure.
By the way, I’m getting tired of hearing about the supposed “market” value of all these homes. For all you delusional sellers out there:
(sarcasm on)
Go ahead and dream about whatever market value you want. Just sell your house and THEN tell me what the market was. You will get your price …….some decade. That’s what makes RE such a can’t miss long term investment. You can always count on inflation to bail you out in the long run.P.S. If your house has been on the market around 180 days you might want to look up the definition of aggressive.
(sarcasm off)
(end rant)ParticipantHow about this idea? We could track listings that are being manipulated up and down by 100 bucks to keep the “reduced” label. Here is one example. I have seen one or two others today. Is this what passes for being a proactive agent these days?
http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1627266
Or we could track prices that have been INCREASED and actually appear to be serious. Maybe this seller will get the higher price:
http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1643318
Finally we could make a list of all listings that DON’T claim to be a “steal” or waaaaaay below “market value” or have extremely “motivated” sellers making a plea to save them from foreclosure.
By the way, I’m getting tired of hearing about the supposed “market” value of all these homes. For all you delusional sellers out there:
(sarcasm on)
Go ahead and dream about whatever market value you want. Just sell your house and THEN tell me what the market was. You will get your price …….some decade. That’s what makes RE such a can’t miss long term investment. You can always count on inflation to bail you out in the long run.P.S. If your house has been on the market around 180 days you might want to look up the definition of aggressive.
(sarcasm off)
(end rant)ParticipantThat’s a pretty sweet idea. I think I’ll start tracking prices for condos with 2 car attached garages since that is my ideal for a first home.
ParticipantThat’s a pretty sweet idea. I think I’ll start tracking prices for condos with 2 car attached garages since that is my ideal for a first home.
ParticipantWhen I click on “add image” it seems to be trying to get me to submit a new thread. I guess maybe I’m just computer challenged.
Here is a chart I made today of the Stone Court Cir/Ct/Dr Condos. There is good data for the 2bd/1.5ba 1063 and 1110 sf condos. There is a 1063 sf unit on the market right now. From the pictures it looks like a really good place and is fully remodeled. The best part by far are the balconies and 2 car garage. The quality here looks a lot better than some other places. This place will certainly command a premium over your basic 800sf 2bd/2ba. I’d pay a lot more for an extra 260 sf and 2 car garage + in home laundry. I think high 190’s to low 200’s might make sense for a lot of people. I’m guessing you could rent these out for 1200-1300 or so. I’d have to look into that.
The thing to point out from this graph is the lack of sales since 11/06. The unit for sale (#1573) is asking 250K-279K and does not appear to be a short sale just by looking at the owners’ purchase price. Just visually look where that point will be on the chart. The peak was $340K for 2 units. If 1573 sells in the range it will represent between 18% and 28% off peak. It would be interesting to see what the new condo numbers for the 92021 zip look like. This type of decline has been typical of all 3 condo complexes I’ve analyzed this week in the immediate area.
We’re partying like it’s 2003 in El Cajon.
ParticipantWhen I click on “add image” it seems to be trying to get me to submit a new thread. I guess maybe I’m just computer challenged.
Here is a chart I made today of the Stone Court Cir/Ct/Dr Condos. There is good data for the 2bd/1.5ba 1063 and 1110 sf condos. There is a 1063 sf unit on the market right now. From the pictures it looks like a really good place and is fully remodeled. The best part by far are the balconies and 2 car garage. The quality here looks a lot better than some other places. This place will certainly command a premium over your basic 800sf 2bd/2ba. I’d pay a lot more for an extra 260 sf and 2 car garage + in home laundry. I think high 190’s to low 200’s might make sense for a lot of people. I’m guessing you could rent these out for 1200-1300 or so. I’d have to look into that.
The thing to point out from this graph is the lack of sales since 11/06. The unit for sale (#1573) is asking 250K-279K and does not appear to be a short sale just by looking at the owners’ purchase price. Just visually look where that point will be on the chart. The peak was $340K for 2 units. If 1573 sells in the range it will represent between 18% and 28% off peak. It would be interesting to see what the new condo numbers for the 92021 zip look like. This type of decline has been typical of all 3 condo complexes I’ve analyzed this week in the immediate area.
We’re partying like it’s 2003 in El Cajon.
ParticipantThat was so fun I decided to do all the data for Bradley Condos at 745 E Bradley Ave 92021. There are 58 total units, 50 2bd/1ba 806sf and 8 1bd/1ba 568 sf. I think this shows the same historical price trend as the 465 E Bradley graph, only better because there are more data points. I got all the data from SDlookup.com in case anyone wants to check my work. I believe this data is accurate as it crosschecked with the data at the county recorder’s office when I was looking at 465 E Bradley units.
The one bedroom sales data is pretty sparse and there hasn’t been a sale in a few years though one is listed now for under 140K.
1bd/1ba sales data:
http://i16.tinypic.com/5zmkww4.jpg2bd/1ba sales data:
http://i11.tinypic.com/4ktys7s.jpgTemeculaguy, I think you should take a look at the data for 465 and 745 E Bradley Ave. Previously you said:
“I think those sub 40k prices may be misleading as they sometimes are fractional numbers of a multi-unit sale or a transfer between corporate divisions or relatives in order to keep the property taxes low. I could be wrong but even in the 1980’s it was hard to find a 2br for under 500/mo in the seediest areas making those a steal.”
I don’t see how this data can support the theory that the sales listed may be fractional. I believe they are likely full sale single unit prices. This would be verifiable with a little time spent at the recorder’s office. I was blown away that prices in the early 80’s were higher than the late 90’s but this graph of 745 E Bradley along with the 465 E Bradley graph and supporting data is overwhelming proof to me. You could in fact have bought a 2bd condo in El Cajon for under 40K in the late 90s. Note that one of these units sold for just under $33K in May of 1996.
The other part that was interesting to me is that most of the buyers seem to be long term owners. Maybe they were picking up these “steals” under 40K and renting them as investments. There are not that many sellers past 2000 that took advantage of the bubble prices. The second highest sale price has already been foreclosed. I wonder how the owner of the all time high of $274K feels about the purchase now that a unit sold for $174K and it looks definite #41 will sell for less than that (currently REO, listed at 175K). That is a 37% hit in complex comparables and dropping.
(By the way, the chart for the 2/1 is cut off on the bottom. The axis dates listed represent October of each year. I should have played with it to set the date in January. Oh well. That is why the data may look shifted by almost a year).
ParticipantThat was so fun I decided to do all the data for Bradley Condos at 745 E Bradley Ave 92021. There are 58 total units, 50 2bd/1ba 806sf and 8 1bd/1ba 568 sf. I think this shows the same historical price trend as the 465 E Bradley graph, only better because there are more data points. I got all the data from SDlookup.com in case anyone wants to check my work. I believe this data is accurate as it crosschecked with the data at the county recorder’s office when I was looking at 465 E Bradley units.
The one bedroom sales data is pretty sparse and there hasn’t been a sale in a few years though one is listed now for under 140K.
1bd/1ba sales data:
http://i16.tinypic.com/5zmkww4.jpg2bd/1ba sales data:
http://i11.tinypic.com/4ktys7s.jpgTemeculaguy, I think you should take a look at the data for 465 and 745 E Bradley Ave. Previously you said:
“I think those sub 40k prices may be misleading as they sometimes are fractional numbers of a multi-unit sale or a transfer between corporate divisions or relatives in order to keep the property taxes low. I could be wrong but even in the 1980’s it was hard to find a 2br for under 500/mo in the seediest areas making those a steal.”
I don’t see how this data can support the theory that the sales listed may be fractional. I believe they are likely full sale single unit prices. This would be verifiable with a little time spent at the recorder’s office. I was blown away that prices in the early 80’s were higher than the late 90’s but this graph of 745 E Bradley along with the 465 E Bradley graph and supporting data is overwhelming proof to me. You could in fact have bought a 2bd condo in El Cajon for under 40K in the late 90s. Note that one of these units sold for just under $33K in May of 1996.
The other part that was interesting to me is that most of the buyers seem to be long term owners. Maybe they were picking up these “steals” under 40K and renting them as investments. There are not that many sellers past 2000 that took advantage of the bubble prices. The second highest sale price has already been foreclosed. I wonder how the owner of the all time high of $274K feels about the purchase now that a unit sold for $174K and it looks definite #41 will sell for less than that (currently REO, listed at 175K). That is a 37% hit in complex comparables and dropping.
(By the way, the chart for the 2/1 is cut off on the bottom. The axis dates listed represent October of each year. I should have played with it to set the date in January. Oh well. That is why the data may look shifted by almost a year).
ParticipantIf anyone is interested, here are the graphs of the data in my original post. I don’t know how to post a .jpg here if that is even possible.
1bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4rcz0hs.jpg2bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4mkcrye.jpg2bd/2ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/6829181.jpgParticipantIf anyone is interested, here are the graphs of the data in my original post. I don’t know how to post a .jpg here if that is even possible.
1bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4rcz0hs.jpg2bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4mkcrye.jpg2bd/2ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/6829181.jpgParticipantThanks temeculaguy. I guess I should have known that. I used turbotax online last year and was looking at the printout that listed a 16,900 deduction so I assumed it was standard for joint filed taxes. I guess I didn’t know there is a 3300 per person deduction when itemizing as I never had enough items to deduct to make it worthwhile. It may be hard to believe that I’ve never understood this, but then again I’ve filed the EZ form my whole life and tried to not worry much about the tax code.
I’m in the military and currently a resident of a state without an income tax so I can’t deduct taxes I don’t pay. If I understand you right, there is still $10,300 I would need to make up with other deductions. So with the exception of the property tax deduction I think my line of thinking still has some merit. The property tax deduction only gets me a few thousand closer. I still think I would need about 8K in other deductions to start “saving” by itemizing.
ParticipantThanks temeculaguy. I guess I should have known that. I used turbotax online last year and was looking at the printout that listed a 16,900 deduction so I assumed it was standard for joint filed taxes. I guess I didn’t know there is a 3300 per person deduction when itemizing as I never had enough items to deduct to make it worthwhile. It may be hard to believe that I’ve never understood this, but then again I’ve filed the EZ form my whole life and tried to not worry much about the tax code.
I’m in the military and currently a resident of a state without an income tax so I can’t deduct taxes I don’t pay. If I understand you right, there is still $10,300 I would need to make up with other deductions. So with the exception of the property tax deduction I think my line of thinking still has some merit. The property tax deduction only gets me a few thousand closer. I still think I would need about 8K in other deductions to start “saving” by itemizing.
ParticipantI only get to hear him for his 30 second blurb around 7:20 in the morning with the daily financial news. He mentioned how the forclosure data would make the bears excited but definitely pointed out there was a YOY increase in median home prices. I’m assuming he has a dedicated show later in the day?
ParticipantI only get to hear him for his 30 second blurb around 7:20 in the morning with the daily financial news. He mentioned how the forclosure data would make the bears excited but definitely pointed out there was a YOY increase in median home prices. I’m assuming he has a dedicated show later in the day?
-
AuthorPosts
