[garysears]

I think the tsunami analogy for Bandar Ache in Indonesia is probably even better than intended if you predict complete collapse for our markets. I observed first hand the immediate aftermath of the tsunami over about 80 miles of coastline on the NW side of the island. I personally captered numerous aerial photos of villages that were completely erased except for foundations. At one time I counted them in my head and could think of at least 12 separate cases. It was incredible how the water took away nearly everything in many areas, leaving little trace of the original structures and even completely changing the shoreline. I hope that is not really the future for our markets. The waves in some cases deposited boats miles inland and many people were likely killed who never even considered the sea a threat. The single coastal road which was the only “exit” for the hundreds of thousands of people living between the mountains and coast was impassible in a few dozen areas. Helicopters were the only way to deliver relief for weeks until the road was rebuilt. I’m not sure how the helicopter analogy really fits. But you could argue the road represents perceived market liquidity.

[garysears]

I think the tsunami analogy for Bandar Ache in Indonesia is probably even better than intended if you predict complete collapse for our markets. I observed first hand the immediate aftermath of the tsunami over about 80 miles of coastline on the NW side of the island. I personally captered numerous aerial photos of villages that were completely erased except for foundations. At one time I counted them in my head and could think of at least 12 separate cases. It was incredible how the water took away nearly everything in many areas, leaving little trace of the original structures and even completely changing the shoreline. I hope that is not really the future for our markets. The waves in some cases deposited boats miles inland and many people were likely killed who never even considered the sea a threat. The single coastal road which was the only “exit” for the hundreds of thousands of people living between the mountains and coast was impassible in a few dozen areas. Helicopters were the only way to deliver relief for weeks until the road was rebuilt. I’m not sure how the helicopter analogy really fits. But you could argue the road represents perceived market liquidity.

[garysears]

Here is a good one.

http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1649105

I don’t understand why people won’t even make the effort to present a clean house for the photos. You could just move the mess around from one room to another without really even cleaning.

Talk about a lack of eye for composition! I love the picture looking from the dining room back into the living room with all the mess and the air mattress against the wall. I also like the underexposed picture of the bed and the window curtains. I wonder if the beds come with the unit? Not sure what the point of the bathroom pic is. I would have left that out completely.

Actually, I take back what I said before about listings without any pictures. This one would show better without any pics at all.

[garysears]

Here is a good one.

http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1649105

I don’t understand why people won’t even make the effort to present a clean house for the photos. You could just move the mess around from one room to another without really even cleaning.

Talk about a lack of eye for composition! I love the picture looking from the dining room back into the living room with all the mess and the air mattress against the wall. I also like the underexposed picture of the bed and the window curtains. I wonder if the beds come with the unit? Not sure what the point of the bathroom pic is. I would have left that out completely.

Actually, I take back what I said before about listings without any pictures. This one would show better without any pics at all.

[garysears]

It seems like the ability to accurately measure the drop is lagging. I could see a 20% drop “effectively” if you want to talk value for the money. I think a good indication is builder price reductions. It is hard for me to imagine a market wide YOY median price drop of 20%. I know it is misleading in a rapidly moving market but it is the most widely reported barometer and considered by many to be THE measure of market performance.

If the buyers are going to have to be more financially sound in the future I could see the median moving pretty slowly. Here is my theory: Most people have a price range or payment in mind when looking for a home. Most people aren’t real estate savvy and are looking to spend X amount of money. The amount is almost “pre spent” if you will. This is how the monthly payment theory of our economy seems to work. I think people are looking to maximize the quality of the home for the price they feel comfortable paying. If prices continue to decline it would seem that the natural inclination for many would be to get a lot more value for their money rather than spending less. I’d just throw that out there as an assertion that could be ridiculous. I will do the same thing if and when I buy. It’s just that my “comfort” price is about 50% of the current asking prices.

[garysears]

It seems like the ability to accurately measure the drop is lagging. I could see a 20% drop “effectively” if you want to talk value for the money. I think a good indication is builder price reductions. It is hard for me to imagine a market wide YOY median price drop of 20%. I know it is misleading in a rapidly moving market but it is the most widely reported barometer and considered by many to be THE measure of market performance.

If the buyers are going to have to be more financially sound in the future I could see the median moving pretty slowly. Here is my theory: Most people have a price range or payment in mind when looking for a home. Most people aren’t real estate savvy and are looking to spend X amount of money. The amount is almost “pre spent” if you will. This is how the monthly payment theory of our economy seems to work. I think people are looking to maximize the quality of the home for the price they feel comfortable paying. If prices continue to decline it would seem that the natural inclination for many would be to get a lot more value for their money rather than spending less. I’d just throw that out there as an assertion that could be ridiculous. I will do the same thing if and when I buy. It’s just that my “comfort” price is about 50% of the current asking prices.

[garysears]

The main point I was trying to post originally: Of the 30 current listings in El Cajon for 2bd condos under $200K, 19 are either REOs (5) or short sales (14). The new “short sale” search function on ziprealty.com returns some REOs but not all. The bottom end of the market in El Cajon is definitely under stress. 8 of the 10 lowest listed prices were short or REO. The number of sub $200K listings has increased substantially in the last few weeks and prices continue to be reduced. I think 2/3 stressed properties at the bottom end of the market is going to continue to drag prices expectations down. The search for all properties in El Cajon listed about 10% as “short sales”. That % apparently includes a few, but not all REOs.

Cashman, I grew up in Montana and moved to S.D. in 2003.

[garysears]

The main point I was trying to post originally: Of the 30 current listings in El Cajon for 2bd condos under $200K, 19 are either REOs (5) or short sales (14). The new “short sale” search function on ziprealty.com returns some REOs but not all. The bottom end of the market in El Cajon is definitely under stress. 8 of the 10 lowest listed prices were short or REO. The number of sub $200K listings has increased substantially in the last few weeks and prices continue to be reduced. I think 2/3 stressed properties at the bottom end of the market is going to continue to drag prices expectations down. The search for all properties in El Cajon listed about 10% as “short sales”. That % apparently includes a few, but not all REOs.

Cashman, I grew up in Montana and moved to S.D. in 2003.

[garysears]

My posts keep getting cut off after a few lines. Anyone else ever have this problem? This is all I can type…

[garysears]

My posts keep getting cut off after a few lines. Anyone else ever have this problem? This is all I can type…

[garysears]

Rustico, thanks again for pointing out the Sunterra condo conversion on N. Johnson. I got a call today from a realtor about a new listing there. One of the 2bd/2ba 896sf units just listed for 179K-199K (short sale subject to lender approval). There are other listings for what appear to be the exact same condo for up to 282K-295K! You are right about the 40K to 90K estimate now I think. Even the sale in January of this year looks like it is going to be upside down by 40K. Even if this latest listing price isn’t accepted by the bank I think it sets a certain price expectation on the part of buyers. The price reductions are really stunning to me (even though I have been hoping for them). The real time price trend here is accelerating regardless of what the latest median statistics show.

The collective wisdom of this board is proving correct to me so far. That gives me further confidence that some of the more bearish predictions are increasingly likely. I am especially grateful for the post I ran across on Craigslist back in late 2005 / early 2006 that pointed me here. Thanks Rich for the site and introduction to the housing bubble analysis.

[garysears]

Rustico, thanks again for pointing out the Sunterra condo conversion on N. Johnson. I got a call today from a realtor about a new listing there. One of the 2bd/2ba 896sf units just listed for 179K-199K (short sale subject to lender approval). There are other listings for what appear to be the exact same condo for up to 282K-295K! You are right about the 40K to 90K estimate now I think. Even the sale in January of this year looks like it is going to be upside down by 40K. Even if this latest listing price isn’t accepted by the bank I think it sets a certain price expectation on the part of buyers. The price reductions are really stunning to me (even though I have been hoping for them). The real time price trend here is accelerating regardless of what the latest median statistics show.

The collective wisdom of this board is proving correct to me so far. That gives me further confidence that some of the more bearish predictions are increasingly likely. I am especially grateful for the post I ran across on Craigslist back in late 2005 / early 2006 that pointed me here. Thanks Rich for the site and introduction to the housing bubble analysis.

[garysears]

One thing I’ll say about these listings is at least they have SOME pictures! I can’t believe it when I run across listings without ANY pictures. It is so easy to get a cheap digital camera and post to the internet. To me a lack of picture screams out “don’t bother”….especially in the current market.

[garysears]

One thing I’ll say about these listings is at least they have SOME pictures! I can’t believe it when I run across listings without ANY pictures. It is so easy to get a cheap digital camera and post to the internet. To me a lack of picture screams out “don’t bother”….especially in the current market.

[garysears]

Chasing the market down much?

How about your favorite listings of high DOM, multiple price reductions? Check out these sellers. I’ll bet they would have got their current asking price a year ago.

8866 LAMAR ST #4, Spring Valley, CA 91977**
MLS #: 066058699
387 days and counting….

Purchased: 07/09/2003 $240,000

http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1545284

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=066058699&page=1&property_type=CONDO&mls=mls_sandiego&cKey=q68j3kw9&source=SANDICOR

In case you don’t have a free ziprealty account:

Original List Price: $390,000
Price Reduced: 07/29/06 — $360,000 to $350,000
Price Reduced: 09/01/06 — $350,000 to $345,000
Price Increased: 09/27/06 — $345,000 to $365,000
Price Reduced: 01/21/07 — $365,000 to $280,000
Price Reduced: 04/06/07 — $360,000 to $332,000
Price Reduced: 06/08/07 — $332,000 to $330,000
Price Reduced: 06/17/07 — $330,000 to $300,000
Price Reduced: 06/28/07 — $300,000 to $280,000
Price Reduced: 07/21/07 — $280,000 to $275,000

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