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April 28, 2009 at 2:44 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #388928
garysears
Participantdavelj,
I recently came to understand that even the S&P is a collection of “winners”. The list continually changes as the fortunes of companies rise and fall. Of course it is a much better measure than the DOW.
Your post kind of confirms by belief that no one asset class is the “sure bet” over the long term. But popular opinion seems to be that stocks are. Some would look at the bull market in stocks and point to the influence of the invention of the 401k and IRS tax deferred gains. It reminds me of the recent “can’t miss” housing investment scam fueled not only by government encouraged low rates and lax lending standards but government encouragement via the 500K tax free gain on profits from selling your house.
Seems like the “best” investment class is a moving target.
April 28, 2009 at 2:44 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389194Participantdavelj,
I recently came to understand that even the S&P is a collection of “winners”. The list continually changes as the fortunes of companies rise and fall. Of course it is a much better measure than the DOW.
Your post kind of confirms by belief that no one asset class is the “sure bet” over the long term. But popular opinion seems to be that stocks are. Some would look at the bull market in stocks and point to the influence of the invention of the 401k and IRS tax deferred gains. It reminds me of the recent “can’t miss” housing investment scam fueled not only by government encouraged low rates and lax lending standards but government encouragement via the 500K tax free gain on profits from selling your house.
Seems like the “best” investment class is a moving target.
April 28, 2009 at 2:44 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389397Participantdavelj,
I recently came to understand that even the S&P is a collection of “winners”. The list continually changes as the fortunes of companies rise and fall. Of course it is a much better measure than the DOW.
Your post kind of confirms by belief that no one asset class is the “sure bet” over the long term. But popular opinion seems to be that stocks are. Some would look at the bull market in stocks and point to the influence of the invention of the 401k and IRS tax deferred gains. It reminds me of the recent “can’t miss” housing investment scam fueled not only by government encouraged low rates and lax lending standards but government encouragement via the 500K tax free gain on profits from selling your house.
Seems like the “best” investment class is a moving target.
April 28, 2009 at 2:44 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389449Participantdavelj,
I recently came to understand that even the S&P is a collection of “winners”. The list continually changes as the fortunes of companies rise and fall. Of course it is a much better measure than the DOW.
Your post kind of confirms by belief that no one asset class is the “sure bet” over the long term. But popular opinion seems to be that stocks are. Some would look at the bull market in stocks and point to the influence of the invention of the 401k and IRS tax deferred gains. It reminds me of the recent “can’t miss” housing investment scam fueled not only by government encouraged low rates and lax lending standards but government encouragement via the 500K tax free gain on profits from selling your house.
Seems like the “best” investment class is a moving target.
April 28, 2009 at 2:44 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389590Participantdavelj,
I recently came to understand that even the S&P is a collection of “winners”. The list continually changes as the fortunes of companies rise and fall. Of course it is a much better measure than the DOW.
Your post kind of confirms by belief that no one asset class is the “sure bet” over the long term. But popular opinion seems to be that stocks are. Some would look at the bull market in stocks and point to the influence of the invention of the 401k and IRS tax deferred gains. It reminds me of the recent “can’t miss” housing investment scam fueled not only by government encouraged low rates and lax lending standards but government encouragement via the 500K tax free gain on profits from selling your house.
Seems like the “best” investment class is a moving target.
April 28, 2009 at 1:50 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #388918Participantpri_dk,
I guess I don’t understand how the share prices of companies can long term outgrow the economy, especially given we aren’t a net exporter. It seems like the overall value of stocks should be somehow related to GDP. I understand that part of this is inflation, but isn’t there some physical limit on growth?
If overall the U.S. was a neutral importer/exporter so we were overall only selling to ourselves, a continual 10% real increase would seem unsustainable.
Long term how can stocks outperform the real economy? Isn’t the value of stocks overall a reflection of the overall economy? So the wider I cast my net with the buy and hold strategy, the more my return should relect the real economy growth, right?
Could it be that markets aren’t perfect and the price trends of stocks in general can diverge from underlying economic fundamentals? Seems to me like we are in credit unwind that is revealing real value.
April 28, 2009 at 1:50 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389184Participantpri_dk,
I guess I don’t understand how the share prices of companies can long term outgrow the economy, especially given we aren’t a net exporter. It seems like the overall value of stocks should be somehow related to GDP. I understand that part of this is inflation, but isn’t there some physical limit on growth?
If overall the U.S. was a neutral importer/exporter so we were overall only selling to ourselves, a continual 10% real increase would seem unsustainable.
Long term how can stocks outperform the real economy? Isn’t the value of stocks overall a reflection of the overall economy? So the wider I cast my net with the buy and hold strategy, the more my return should relect the real economy growth, right?
Could it be that markets aren’t perfect and the price trends of stocks in general can diverge from underlying economic fundamentals? Seems to me like we are in credit unwind that is revealing real value.
April 28, 2009 at 1:50 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389387Participantpri_dk,
I guess I don’t understand how the share prices of companies can long term outgrow the economy, especially given we aren’t a net exporter. It seems like the overall value of stocks should be somehow related to GDP. I understand that part of this is inflation, but isn’t there some physical limit on growth?
If overall the U.S. was a neutral importer/exporter so we were overall only selling to ourselves, a continual 10% real increase would seem unsustainable.
Long term how can stocks outperform the real economy? Isn’t the value of stocks overall a reflection of the overall economy? So the wider I cast my net with the buy and hold strategy, the more my return should relect the real economy growth, right?
Could it be that markets aren’t perfect and the price trends of stocks in general can diverge from underlying economic fundamentals? Seems to me like we are in credit unwind that is revealing real value.
April 28, 2009 at 1:50 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389439Participantpri_dk,
I guess I don’t understand how the share prices of companies can long term outgrow the economy, especially given we aren’t a net exporter. It seems like the overall value of stocks should be somehow related to GDP. I understand that part of this is inflation, but isn’t there some physical limit on growth?
If overall the U.S. was a neutral importer/exporter so we were overall only selling to ourselves, a continual 10% real increase would seem unsustainable.
Long term how can stocks outperform the real economy? Isn’t the value of stocks overall a reflection of the overall economy? So the wider I cast my net with the buy and hold strategy, the more my return should relect the real economy growth, right?
Could it be that markets aren’t perfect and the price trends of stocks in general can diverge from underlying economic fundamentals? Seems to me like we are in credit unwind that is revealing real value.
April 28, 2009 at 1:50 PM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389580Participantpri_dk,
I guess I don’t understand how the share prices of companies can long term outgrow the economy, especially given we aren’t a net exporter. It seems like the overall value of stocks should be somehow related to GDP. I understand that part of this is inflation, but isn’t there some physical limit on growth?
If overall the U.S. was a neutral importer/exporter so we were overall only selling to ourselves, a continual 10% real increase would seem unsustainable.
Long term how can stocks outperform the real economy? Isn’t the value of stocks overall a reflection of the overall economy? So the wider I cast my net with the buy and hold strategy, the more my return should relect the real economy growth, right?
Could it be that markets aren’t perfect and the price trends of stocks in general can diverge from underlying economic fundamentals? Seems to me like we are in credit unwind that is revealing real value.
April 28, 2009 at 11:51 AM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #388824Participantdavelj,
Yeah, that is how I should have phrased it “CAPABLE”. I like your analogy of the balloon payment.
In any case, my point about the amount of fraud and deceit remains. Who would be investing in this environment, knowing that there there is no transparency, especially with the continuing massive bailouts and BK risk?
It doesn’t seem to be the best environment for the common guy with little fundamental understanding (ie. me).
April 28, 2009 at 11:51 AM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389089Participantdavelj,
Yeah, that is how I should have phrased it “CAPABLE”. I like your analogy of the balloon payment.
In any case, my point about the amount of fraud and deceit remains. Who would be investing in this environment, knowing that there there is no transparency, especially with the continuing massive bailouts and BK risk?
It doesn’t seem to be the best environment for the common guy with little fundamental understanding (ie. me).
April 28, 2009 at 11:51 AM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389291Participantdavelj,
Yeah, that is how I should have phrased it “CAPABLE”. I like your analogy of the balloon payment.
In any case, my point about the amount of fraud and deceit remains. Who would be investing in this environment, knowing that there there is no transparency, especially with the continuing massive bailouts and BK risk?
It doesn’t seem to be the best environment for the common guy with little fundamental understanding (ie. me).
April 28, 2009 at 11:51 AM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #389344Participantdavelj,
Yeah, that is how I should have phrased it “CAPABLE”. I like your analogy of the balloon payment.
In any case, my point about the amount of fraud and deceit remains. Who would be investing in this environment, knowing that there there is no transparency, especially with the continuing massive bailouts and BK risk?
It doesn’t seem to be the best environment for the common guy with little fundamental understanding (ie. me).
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