[fritzmt]

Here’s the comment I got from the professor at the USC Lusk Center, it was very informative and from a knowledgable source regarding the metadata associated with home purchases in the area:

Dear Major,

Even though fixed mortgage rates are still very low, there has indeed been a price run up in LA County during the past five years. The market is cooling and further gains are likely to remain flat for the next few years. The area that you are considering in the Antelope Valley has some of the least expensive rents. Since you may be leaving in two to four years and seeling the house, it is not an ideal time to buy. These decisions are always very personal and everyone’s situation is different. So, good luck with your decision.

NAME REMOVED, TITLE REMOVED (but high up)
Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast, USC Lusk Center Associate Professor, Marshall School of Business University of Southern California Bridge Hall 401E Los Angeles, CA 90089-0809

[fritzmt]

To All:
I appreciate and respect each and every comment I’ve receieved so far in this message string. My wife and I have decided to rent, given the data we’ve witnessed here and from other sources. Even a Professor at the USC Lusk Institute (for Real Estate in Southern California) confirmed this approach given our situation and the state of the Real Estate economy in SoCal.
Unfortunately, we don’t get to choose where we get stationed in the military, only the way we choose to live once we get there. As such, until we find data which supports otherwise, we’ll be sending our children to school on base at Edwards–a 9 out of 10 Standardized Test scoring versus 1s, 2s and 3s elsewhere in Rosamond, Lancaster and Palmdale. Most likely we will rent in Rosamond or Lancaster and carpool with other military families in similar situations.
As a Lieutenant, I started my career at Los Angeles AFB and lived in Manhattan Beach and Redondo Beach–13 years ago. Such a different situation, given that we did not have children at the time. How different things are now that Children (and their education) drives the entire search for our home, eh? That said, we are ill-equipped to withstand the negative effects of a poor home investment: especially of the magnitude discussed on this board. As such, we will use our relative buying power as renters in a depressed and further depressing market to negotiate a rental that suits our needs until either the housing market improves (unlikely within the short period of our stay) or the housing project on base is completed.
Thanks again for the candid and informative responses. I look forward to reading any others that you may have to offer. As for you, Ponynaround, I look forward to the opportunity to run into you and shake your hand on base some day!

[Author]

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