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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantbearishgirl – Your loan sounds similar to 5/1 Option ARMs, common the past half decade. Most of those were either based on COFI or LIBOR. A similar loan is the 5/1 Interest-only ARMs, which have all the same features as yours except no negative amortization. 5/1 ARMs and IO ARMS are still advertised (I don;t know anyone who has received one recently, though).
I once had a 5/1 IO ARM on a rental property. I was spooked by high short-term rates in 2006-2007 and refi’d into a 6.25% fixed rate in 2007 (and again in 2009 to less than 5%). If I held my original loan the current rate would be less than 3.5% (12-month LIBOR + 2.25%).
In response to the theory that the next wave of loan resets would lead to massive defaults (I disagree with that theory), I have been tracking resets of loans originated in the 2004-2006 timeframe for 11 months so far here …
Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.[/quote]
It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.
Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.htmlMy brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.
In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.
Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.
Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]
I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.[/quote]
It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.
Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.htmlMy brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.
In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.
Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.
Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]
I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.[/quote]
It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.
Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.htmlMy brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.
In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.
Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.
Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]
I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.[/quote]
It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.
Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.htmlMy brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.
In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.
Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.
Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]
I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=FormerSanDiegan]
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.[/quote]
It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.
Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.htmlMy brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.
In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.
Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.
Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.[/quote]
I assumed you meant Y2K pricing in SD (since the original post was of very local flavor).
I agree that some areas of the country have seen Y2K pricing or lower.Participant“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.Participant“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.Participant“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.Participant“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.Participant“I predicted a long period of stagnation that will in essence bring us back to Year 2000 prices. ”
What do you mean by “in essence” ?
Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.I personally don’t think we will see year 2000 nominal prices broadly across San Diego. Primarily because mortgage payments to rent is very favorable, and price ratios are not that far above long-term trends. However, I do think we will see inflation-adjusted 2000 prices.
Actually we essentially hit that mark already in the C-S index in Spring 2009, and may cross it again or dwell around that point over next few years.ParticipantAre you looking for screening services for tenants you have identified or are you looking for a company to market the property, identify and screen tenants ?
I use a full-time property management service: American Heritage Properties (renthomes.com)
However, if you do not want full-time management, you can pay a little less for them to market and place tenants in your property.They typically charge 10% of rent for full-time mgmt and something like 5-7% for placement services. Yes they really do about 60-70% (or more) of their work during vacancies, depending on the neediness of the tenant.
I am sure other management comapnies offer similar services.
If you only want screening services after you have potential tenants, you should pay considerably less for this, but not sure if they do this service.
If this is your first rental, I would recommend using a PM service at least for screening and placing tenants, unless your situation warrants otherwise.
ParticipantAre you looking for screening services for tenants you have identified or are you looking for a company to market the property, identify and screen tenants ?
I use a full-time property management service: American Heritage Properties (renthomes.com)
However, if you do not want full-time management, you can pay a little less for them to market and place tenants in your property.They typically charge 10% of rent for full-time mgmt and something like 5-7% for placement services. Yes they really do about 60-70% (or more) of their work during vacancies, depending on the neediness of the tenant.
I am sure other management comapnies offer similar services.
If you only want screening services after you have potential tenants, you should pay considerably less for this, but not sure if they do this service.
If this is your first rental, I would recommend using a PM service at least for screening and placing tenants, unless your situation warrants otherwise.
ParticipantAre you looking for screening services for tenants you have identified or are you looking for a company to market the property, identify and screen tenants ?
I use a full-time property management service: American Heritage Properties (renthomes.com)
However, if you do not want full-time management, you can pay a little less for them to market and place tenants in your property.They typically charge 10% of rent for full-time mgmt and something like 5-7% for placement services. Yes they really do about 60-70% (or more) of their work during vacancies, depending on the neediness of the tenant.
I am sure other management comapnies offer similar services.
If you only want screening services after you have potential tenants, you should pay considerably less for this, but not sure if they do this service.
If this is your first rental, I would recommend using a PM service at least for screening and placing tenants, unless your situation warrants otherwise.
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