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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantblackbox –
Your message may be right on. However, calling someone an idiot in the same paragraph as using the terms “medium” income and “medium” home prices multiple times does not aid your cause.
… Unless of course, you actually mean medium prices. If so, what about Extra Large Home Prices and Small Income ratios ? Why isn’t the press reporting these. 🙂
ParticipantSD R –
Yes, there are higher end sales, perhaps do to lagging strength of move-up buyers. However, why are these move-up buyers in Poway, when they have already abandoned large swaths of the county.
I think there is something in the water there.
ParticipantI know about the flaws in median, particularly the more house for the same money angle, and I agree that is a true flaw.
My original point is that even the flawed median is showing a significant decrease county wide. However, there is Poway, hanging in there both in price and sales.
See in the chart below. Sales are about even in the 4th quarter 2006 compared to 4th quarter 2005. Median price is up over that time in an environment (SD) where the median is down down over 6%.
SALES in Red
Median Price in Blue[img_assist|nid=2460|title=Poway sales and median price Dec 04 to Dec 06|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]
Is it simply that Poway is one of the last areas to fall ? Also looking at the early -mid 90’s Poway held up well then. Are the positives (good schools, etc) such that Poway will fall much less than other places, making a Decision to sell and rent less effective there ?
ParticipantMove up buyers. The same reason why median rises even though sales are soft and discounts major.
So, there was a larger concentration of move-up buyers in Poway as opposed to the rest of the county ? It would be nice to have a Professor Piggington-style per-square-foot analysis for Poway to confirm
January 19, 2007 at 8:16 AM in reply to: Under-construction condo complex burns up; cause not yet known #43796ParticipantBut arson and insurance fraud convictions would result in losing everything they have and also going to jail for a long, long time. … . It just doesn’t make any sense for the developer to do anything like that.
It also doesn’t make sense from that perspective to commit accounting fraud (see Ken Lay), or to backdate options, or to rob a liquor store for a couple hundred bucks, or to shoot someone for their shoes. But these things happen, don’t they.
ParticipantI know it’s off the subject, but …
sns, I’ll ask the question on behalf of PC, lk, kjm, et al.: why are you practicing Catholics so darned judgemental and intolerant?
Isn’t this a judgmental statement ?
I love the irony (hope it was intended).… back to your regular programming.
ParticipantIt’s really doesn’t have to be this complicated. They are taking a simple arbitrage and making it seem complicated.
A simpler system to pay off debt sooner:
1. Budget an additional amount (e.g. 5 -10% more) each month towards your debts.
2. Look at all your debts and apply this excess payment to the highest rate debts first.
3. (optional) Keep your checking account near zero, with the balance in money market, ING, or HSBC accounts earning 4-5-5% (as opposed to checking’s 2-3%).Check out the book “Downsize Your Debt,” by Andrew Feinberg. I read this over a decade ago. The ideas seem obvious to me now, but it certainly helped me back then.
ParticipantCan someone help me understand these two statements:
“The market ended the year with a median price of $483,000 for all homes, off 6.4 percent from December 2005.”
“The overall median price of a home in the county last year slipped 0.8 percent, to $490,000, down from 2005’s $494,000. The annual decline was the first since a 1.8 percent drop from 1994 to 1995, when the median stood at $166,000.”
I was trying to figure that out myself. My thoughts: Reporters are typically not good at math, but good with words. However, they got the math right and left out some words that would clarify matters.
It seems that the 0.8% decline is a comparison of the median from the entire year of 2005 with all of 2006.
The decline of 6.4% compares only December 2005 with December 2006.
Bottom line : 6.4 % drop December to December. The 0.8% number is diluted and putting faith in it is deluded.
ParticipantThanks for the comments guys, though I sohuld learn to how to spell Real first.
Actually mis-spellings in listings are quite common from what I’ve seen. You are qualified from that perspective.
Participantjg –
How do you draw a conclusion to sell and rent from an example that compares the cost of living in two identical homes ?
Selling and renting was not one of the two options. An entirely different calculation is used.Also, the reality of Prop 13 is that you can’t ignore the 6-10K or more in property tax for real world examples of homes in the 500-750K range.
Additionally, even if you ignore taxes the costs are not the same. You typically cannot rent the house out for the equivalent of the debt service. Rent is more like 5% of gross today in 2007 as your example specifies.
Also, you cannot find any guaranteed investment at the same rate you are paying for a mortgage (If you could, then the market would be assuming zero defaults).ParticipantThe Clinton years were great economically. I miss that aspect. However, those years also included the initial attempt to attack the World Trade Center, the simultaneous attack of embassies and the bombing of the USS Cole. These were preludes to the attack on 9/11.
Maybe it was good luck to be prez when the economy was on a roll and maybe it was a result of his policies. Maybe it was bad luck that a series of terrorist attacks occurred during his presidency and maybe it was a result of ignoring a festering problem.
Either way it is easy to look back with fondness and forget the warts. But to be fair, it wasn’t exactly shangri la.
ParticipantHowever, you can go to dqnews.com to get the dataquick numbers for san diego on a per zip code basis. Unfortunately the charge you for archives for the past which sucks.
The UT web site has past numbers on solds and median prices per zip code, based on what they published from DQ sources.
http://realestate.signonsandiego.com/area_homesales/pastyears.php
ParticipantSD Realtor –
Thanks for the info. I’m a bit surprised by the apparent relative strength in Clairemont with 31 pending and 74 active. I expected the pendings to be much lower. We’ll see what happens in the next few months as pent-up supply comes back on line as inventory.ParticipantThe poor have little,
Beggars none;
The rich too much
Enough not one.– Ben Franklin
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