[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Bugs –
The Case-Shiller index uses repeat sales to overcome some of the problems with median prices, primarily the biases due to change in mix of sales.

Since any particular house is typically only sold every few years there are some sampling issues, and they make use of estimation theory.

It’s laid out in the following …
http://macromarkets.com/csi_housing/documents/tech_discussion.pdf

All those engineers out there might appreciate it, but others might want to take a class in Random Signal Theory before reading the details.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Once I saw that news, I figured it would cheer you up.
I see that the stock market yawned at the report (for now at least).

Ahh, the good old days of anemic 2% growth, how I long for thee.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Once I saw that news, I figured it would cheer you up.
I see that the stock market yawned at the report (for now at least).

Ahh, the good old days of anemic 2% growth, how I long for thee.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Next thing you know he’s going to get his own reality show.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Next thing you know he’s going to get his own reality show.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

FSD, Obviously Mistaken. The LA Times Information on Sunday (5/27) was for Orange and Ventura County stupid. I believe San Diego County might come out this weekend. We’ll see what the monthly numbers look like then. You really are a friggin Idiot..

I apologize for going directly to the source that LA Times cited, which can be found here : http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm

(By the way, I know I am the stupid one, but if you look at this site, you can see the stats that LA Times spreads out over 4 weekly publications up to three weeks early).

If you don’t like to hear what I say, don’t read it. It’s that simple.

I refuse to judge you and call you names based on a few misguided posts, but how do I know whether I like to hear what you say prior to reading it ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

FSD, Obviously Mistaken. The LA Times Information on Sunday (5/27) was for Orange and Ventura County stupid. I believe San Diego County might come out this weekend. We’ll see what the monthly numbers look like then. You really are a friggin Idiot..

I apologize for going directly to the source that LA Times cited, which can be found here : http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm

(By the way, I know I am the stupid one, but if you look at this site, you can see the stats that LA Times spreads out over 4 weekly publications up to three weeks early).

If you don’t like to hear what I say, don’t read it. It’s that simple.

I refuse to judge you and call you names based on a few misguided posts, but how do I know whether I like to hear what you say prior to reading it ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I was simply pointing out the folly in drawing QUANTITATIVE conclusions from monthly zip code specific stats.

Case-Shiller shows San Diego down 6%. Yes it is. Yes, the trend is still down. The C-S is a more reliable (but a bit lagging) indicator. Most areas are probably down at least 10%. The monthly medians simply have too many wild swings to be a reliable indicator of the QUANTITATIVE change.

Also, for the record, I like what LateSummer2008 is trying to do with the westside meltdown blogspot (note, not cited, just mentioned). This is one of the last areas in SO. Cal where the bubble is bursting and what we are seeing in San Diego is beginning to be seen on the westside.

Correction: I cited the source that LA Times uses, which can be viewed here: http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
(I hope DQnews doesn’t banish me from this site) They print stats from various counties from this table in the print edition each week over a period of each month in LA Times. I went straight to the source that LATimes uses, so I should have cited it correctly.

Regarding citing web sources. Many posts include links to web sites. For example, I cited DQ news above. In the past I have cited CNN many times, the Bureau of Labor statistics website and probably http://www.irs.gov. I’m assuming this is OK with the moderator. I actually like the fact that you are focusing on the Westside.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I was simply pointing out the folly in drawing QUANTITATIVE conclusions from monthly zip code specific stats.

Case-Shiller shows San Diego down 6%. Yes it is. Yes, the trend is still down. The C-S is a more reliable (but a bit lagging) indicator. Most areas are probably down at least 10%. The monthly medians simply have too many wild swings to be a reliable indicator of the QUANTITATIVE change.

Also, for the record, I like what LateSummer2008 is trying to do with the westside meltdown blogspot (note, not cited, just mentioned). This is one of the last areas in SO. Cal where the bubble is bursting and what we are seeing in San Diego is beginning to be seen on the westside.

Correction: I cited the source that LA Times uses, which can be viewed here: http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
(I hope DQnews doesn’t banish me from this site) They print stats from various counties from this table in the print edition each week over a period of each month in LA Times. I went straight to the source that LATimes uses, so I should have cited it correctly.

Regarding citing web sources. Many posts include links to web sites. For example, I cited DQ news above. In the past I have cited CNN many times, the Bureau of Labor statistics website and probably http://www.irs.gov. I’m assuming this is OK with the moderator. I actually like the fact that you are focusing on the Westside.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Any objections ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Any objections ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg’s chart is an excellent example of the variability of monthly zip code specific median price.

Monthly data is very noisy because the sales from one month are from a sample of homes that are different from the sample from subsequent months.

You must separate the signal form the noise.

I have plotted a blow-up of recent La Jolla Price history below. There is a lot of fluctuation from month to month.
The general trend is that the median price is about what is was at the end of 2004. But drawing general conclusions about the La Jolla sub-market based on a single monthly number is misleading.

The La Jolla data showed a 20% increase from July -Sept 2006. How many here think that accurately represents the La Jolla Market ?

According to the monthly data the La Jolla median is UP over 9% from the end of last year. Making a conclusion that the general price trend in LJ is currently up would be dangerous. I recommend that you look at the big picture.

[img_assist|nid=3537|title=La Jolla Median Price SFR|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg’s chart is an excellent example of the variability of monthly zip code specific median price.

Monthly data is very noisy because the sales from one month are from a sample of homes that are different from the sample from subsequent months.

You must separate the signal form the noise.

I have plotted a blow-up of recent La Jolla Price history below. There is a lot of fluctuation from month to month.
The general trend is that the median price is about what is was at the end of 2004. But drawing general conclusions about the La Jolla sub-market based on a single monthly number is misleading.

The La Jolla data showed a 20% increase from July -Sept 2006. How many here think that accurately represents the La Jolla Market ?

According to the monthly data the La Jolla median is UP over 9% from the end of last year. Making a conclusion that the general price trend in LJ is currently up would be dangerous. I recommend that you look at the big picture.

[img_assist|nid=3537|title=La Jolla Median Price SFR|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]

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