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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI’m gonna go out on a limb and say that San Diego SFR home prices are going back to 2003-2004 levels as measured by the county-wide median price.
How can I be wrong, with such a huge price range ?
The median started in Jan 2003 at ~ 358K and ended 2004 at ~ 525K.
ParticipantRegarding 200X pricing comparisons :
For years with rapid appreciation there can be a huge difference between the beginning of the year and the end. Prices were skyrocketing from 2003 to early 2005.
Take 2004 for example.
The County-wide median increased by about 22% from January 2004 to December 2004.I think I could have sold my house in early 2004 for about 650-700K, but by the end of 2004 it would likely have sold for > 775K. I sold in mid-2005 for nearly 825K.
Seems like DaCounselor had a valid point.
ParticipantRegarding 200X pricing comparisons :
For years with rapid appreciation there can be a huge difference between the beginning of the year and the end. Prices were skyrocketing from 2003 to early 2005.
Take 2004 for example.
The County-wide median increased by about 22% from January 2004 to December 2004.I think I could have sold my house in early 2004 for about 650-700K, but by the end of 2004 it would likely have sold for > 775K. I sold in mid-2005 for nearly 825K.
Seems like DaCounselor had a valid point.
ParticipantThis ought to bring up the average price in La Jolla for May.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070531/news_1b31sale.html
ParticipantThis ought to bring up the average price in La Jolla for May.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070531/news_1b31sale.html
Participantcyphire – I still like the idea of gauging prices. After all it was prices that were used to justify and define the existence of a bubble. However, as you point out, price alone is not effective in defining where things are headed. Months of inventory is a decent gauge of the market since it accounts for the two key items that 9 out of 10 economists agree drive prices : supply (houses for sale) and demand (recent actual closed sales as a proxy).
Participantcyphire – I still like the idea of gauging prices. After all it was prices that were used to justify and define the existence of a bubble. However, as you point out, price alone is not effective in defining where things are headed. Months of inventory is a decent gauge of the market since it accounts for the two key items that 9 out of 10 economists agree drive prices : supply (houses for sale) and demand (recent actual closed sales as a proxy).
ParticipantSD R –
jg’s chart IS the median for detached homes.
JG’s chart shows about a 20% decline from the peak in the median price of detached homes (if you smooth out or ignore the fluctuations).
Your April 2007 number is the mean not the median.
Edit – Additional Note: The April 2007 median for SFR for LaJolla was 1.5 Mil for 38 sales. Data quick separates into Single-family and condominums, not explicitly detached vs attached, but implied.
ParticipantSD R –
jg’s chart IS the median for detached homes.
JG’s chart shows about a 20% decline from the peak in the median price of detached homes (if you smooth out or ignore the fluctuations).
Your April 2007 number is the mean not the median.
Edit – Additional Note: The April 2007 median for SFR for LaJolla was 1.5 Mil for 38 sales. Data quick separates into Single-family and condominums, not explicitly detached vs attached, but implied.
ParticipantOFHEO may be inaccurate for high-priced regions. It uses data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so I believe it only reflects conforming loans (less than 417K). Their numbers are probably representative in a lot of areas of the country, but may be significantly biased towards the lower end in areas like southern California.
ParticipantOFHEO may be inaccurate for high-priced regions. It uses data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so I believe it only reflects conforming loans (less than 417K). Their numbers are probably representative in a lot of areas of the country, but may be significantly biased towards the lower end in areas like southern California.
Participant4plex – I’d agree that 2% growth is better than 10%. But I am not sure whether I would agree that 10% growth comes at the expense of using 5x the natural resources of 2% growth.
Participant4plex – I’d agree that 2% growth is better than 10%. But I am not sure whether I would agree that 10% growth comes at the expense of using 5x the natural resources of 2% growth.
ParticipantBugs –
The Case-Shiller index uses repeat sales to overcome some of the problems with median prices, primarily the biases due to change in mix of sales.Since any particular house is typically only sold every few years there are some sampling issues, and they make use of estimation theory.
It’s laid out in the following …
http://macromarkets.com/csi_housing/documents/tech_discussion.pdfAll those engineers out there might appreciate it, but others might want to take a class in Random Signal Theory before reading the details.
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