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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantFSD– One thing your graph lacks compared to powayseller’s hand drawn one is that it doesn’t actually curve back in time. Nice try though…
Yeah, I guess I am limiting myself by the fact that I bought into that single-valued function thingy they taught me in the 7th grade.
ParticipantFSD– One thing your graph lacks compared to powayseller’s hand drawn one is that it doesn’t actually curve back in time. Nice try though…
Yeah, I guess I am limiting myself by the fact that I bought into that single-valued function thingy they taught me in the 7th grade.
Participant“Which Catholic college, FSD?”
Benedictine College – Atchison, KS
Participant“Which Catholic college, FSD?”
Benedictine College – Atchison, KS
Participantjg – I am poking fun at my own religion. I was using a term that the general public might associate with the Communion wafer itself.
RETRACTION: I meant to state that “Pope Urban snacked on un-consecrated Communion wafers.”
Hope that clears it up …
I hereby formally apologize to my teachers, nuns, lay persons, and Benedictine monks who taught me during my 12 years of Catholic school and two years of Catholic college for mistakingly using the word Communion, and also to my child’s second grade religion teachers, the RCIA directors, and the old lady that kneels behind us in church who rolls her eyes at the behavior of my kids during the Eucharistic Prayer.
Participantjg – I am poking fun at my own religion. I was using a term that the general public might associate with the Communion wafer itself.
RETRACTION: I meant to state that “Pope Urban snacked on un-consecrated Communion wafers.”
Hope that clears it up …
I hereby formally apologize to my teachers, nuns, lay persons, and Benedictine monks who taught me during my 12 years of Catholic school and two years of Catholic college for mistakingly using the word Communion, and also to my child’s second grade religion teachers, the RCIA directors, and the old lady that kneels behind us in church who rolls her eyes at the behavior of my kids during the Eucharistic Prayer.
Participant“By the way Former I appreciate how you offered Latesummer an olive branch a couple of days ago. I suppose I should start a new Thread for that too?lol”
Rustico – Make sure you start the thread under the KUMBAYA section of the forums.
Participant“By the way Former I appreciate how you offered Latesummer an olive branch a couple of days ago. I suppose I should start a new Thread for that too?lol”
Rustico – Make sure you start the thread under the KUMBAYA section of the forums.
ParticipantI think that Pope Urban VIII’s apostolic uncle had more impact on him than his brother. This early influence is what propelled Pope Urban VIII and ultimately led to him becoming Pope. His actions and policies contributed to the Tulipmania bubble.
Being a bit dim-witted (he once almost choked to death on Communion, which he often snacked on as he watched sporting events on his couch), the Pope’s misguided policy’s aimed at extended the power and reach of Italy and the Church and his call to Galileo to recant his discoveries inadvertantly led to a long and protracted struggle, which lasted thirty years, and is known coincidentally as the Thirty Years’ War.
The struggle of the Thirty Years’ War impacted continental Eurpope’s supply of tulip bulbs. Also, the policies of the Vatican, which promoted speculation in floral goods, also contributed, as did a global glut of fertilizer which chased more and more speculative floral products.
ParticipantI think that Pope Urban VIII’s apostolic uncle had more impact on him than his brother. This early influence is what propelled Pope Urban VIII and ultimately led to him becoming Pope. His actions and policies contributed to the Tulipmania bubble.
Being a bit dim-witted (he once almost choked to death on Communion, which he often snacked on as he watched sporting events on his couch), the Pope’s misguided policy’s aimed at extended the power and reach of Italy and the Church and his call to Galileo to recant his discoveries inadvertantly led to a long and protracted struggle, which lasted thirty years, and is known coincidentally as the Thirty Years’ War.
The struggle of the Thirty Years’ War impacted continental Eurpope’s supply of tulip bulbs. Also, the policies of the Vatican, which promoted speculation in floral goods, also contributed, as did a global glut of fertilizer which chased more and more speculative floral products.
ParticipantIt is perfectly acceptable to have non=-RE discussions. This site has several forums in different categories to accommodate this.
I am simply suggesting that we could separate discussions on the financial impact of Tulipmania from the impact of the intelligence of Pope Urban VIII on the outcome of the Thirty Years’ War.
ParticipantIt is perfectly acceptable to have non=-RE discussions. This site has several forums in different categories to accommodate this.
I am simply suggesting that we could separate discussions on the financial impact of Tulipmania from the impact of the intelligence of Pope Urban VIII on the outcome of the Thirty Years’ War.
ParticipantFun with plots …
Just for kicks, I did my own half-assed projection. But instead of drawing a cartoon, like Powayseller did on her web site, I posed a hypothesis: that perhaps this cycle is just like last time, but longer.
I tweaked the growth rate to exactly hit the last bottom: This came out to 6.2%
Assuming that this cycle is like the last time, I assumed that 2005 was the equivalent to 1990 in the last cycle. Then I used the Year-over year percentage declines from the 90’s bust to project from 2005 forward. That started turning up too soon, so I assumed that the decline in the fourth year of the 90’s decline (nearly 5%) continued on until I hit the 6.2% growth line assumption. The plot below is the result.
So there you go, based on one definition of “normal” growth, I would expect around a 22% nominal price decline from the peak lasting to about 2011-2012.
This is consistent with other computations of the level that houses are over-priced (including Rich’s if you assume that 3% annual inflation accounts for the other 20%+ loss in real prices).
Just another half-a$$ed way to get the same answer.
This is not a prediction of the trajectory we will follow this time, but I’m betting that the end result is pretty close.
[img_assist|nid=3596|title=another half-a$$ed projection|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]
ParticipantFun with plots …
Just for kicks, I did my own half-assed projection. But instead of drawing a cartoon, like Powayseller did on her web site, I posed a hypothesis: that perhaps this cycle is just like last time, but longer.
I tweaked the growth rate to exactly hit the last bottom: This came out to 6.2%
Assuming that this cycle is like the last time, I assumed that 2005 was the equivalent to 1990 in the last cycle. Then I used the Year-over year percentage declines from the 90’s bust to project from 2005 forward. That started turning up too soon, so I assumed that the decline in the fourth year of the 90’s decline (nearly 5%) continued on until I hit the 6.2% growth line assumption. The plot below is the result.
So there you go, based on one definition of “normal” growth, I would expect around a 22% nominal price decline from the peak lasting to about 2011-2012.
This is consistent with other computations of the level that houses are over-priced (including Rich’s if you assume that 3% annual inflation accounts for the other 20%+ loss in real prices).
Just another half-a$$ed way to get the same answer.
This is not a prediction of the trajectory we will follow this time, but I’m betting that the end result is pretty close.
[img_assist|nid=3596|title=another half-a$$ed projection|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]
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