[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Rich – Thanks for providing a dose of sanity. Any homeowner with insurance knows (or should know) whether their insured value is cash value or replacement cost. They also should know the dollar value of the strcuture(s) covered and the cost to replace them. They also know that in San Diego, often the cost of a property is primarily the land, with the structure often being less than 50% of the property value.

There seem to be a rash of ignorant posters who do not understand this. An FB who paid 700K or so might get less than 300K to replace their property. In the best case scenario, a homeowner has a replacement cost policy AND paid for enough coverage such that the replacement cost is no more than 150% of the value of their policy coverage. (Replacement value insurance typically covers up to 150% of the policy coverage).
It is highly unlikely that in the current market a charred empty lot would command the kind of prices paid for the improved lot with a structure on it.

Even in good economic times for housing, many in Scripps Ranch had to cough up significant funds to make themselves whole again after 2003.

A house burning down is not going to help an FB in San Diego.

However, it remains to be seen what the longer term effects of the follwing factors might be: lost housing stock, increased insurance costs, added construction jobs, and psychological effects on buyers.

Finally, my deepest sympathies go to those who have been displaced, lost their homes, apartments, and memories.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Rich – Thanks for providing a dose of sanity. Any homeowner with insurance knows (or should know) whether their insured value is cash value or replacement cost. They also should know the dollar value of the strcuture(s) covered and the cost to replace them. They also know that in San Diego, often the cost of a property is primarily the land, with the structure often being less than 50% of the property value.

There seem to be a rash of ignorant posters who do not understand this. An FB who paid 700K or so might get less than 300K to replace their property. In the best case scenario, a homeowner has a replacement cost policy AND paid for enough coverage such that the replacement cost is no more than 150% of the value of their policy coverage. (Replacement value insurance typically covers up to 150% of the policy coverage).
It is highly unlikely that in the current market a charred empty lot would command the kind of prices paid for the improved lot with a structure on it.

Even in good economic times for housing, many in Scripps Ranch had to cough up significant funds to make themselves whole again after 2003.

A house burning down is not going to help an FB in San Diego.

However, it remains to be seen what the longer term effects of the follwing factors might be: lost housing stock, increased insurance costs, added construction jobs, and psychological effects on buyers.

Finally, my deepest sympathies go to those who have been displaced, lost their homes, apartments, and memories.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m with you betting on fall.
I don’t know how he came up with $6100/mo carrying cost.

He said he had a 15% deposit. Assuming that’s his down payment, I come up with about a 4% payment to make it come out to 6100 per month. Assuming 1.125% prop tax and ignoring maintenance.

4% would imply that he has a neg-am option ARM or some other crap, that I thought no longer existed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m with you betting on fall.
I don’t know how he came up with $6100/mo carrying cost.

He said he had a 15% deposit. Assuming that’s his down payment, I come up with about a 4% payment to make it come out to 6100 per month. Assuming 1.125% prop tax and ignoring maintenance.

4% would imply that he has a neg-am option ARM or some other crap, that I thought no longer existed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m with you betting on fall.
I don’t know how he came up with $6100/mo carrying cost.

He said he had a 15% deposit. Assuming that’s his down payment, I come up with about a 4% payment to make it come out to 6100 per month. Assuming 1.125% prop tax and ignoring maintenance.

4% would imply that he has a neg-am option ARM or some other crap, that I thought no longer existed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“If this is as bad as I think it is, this will save the SD housing market for the next year or two….lots of buyers with money about to enter the market”

Uh, how do you figure that? If anything, this will hasten the decline because the real values will be assessed by the insurance companies and they aint going to use 2005 comps I’m pretty sure.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The outcome of these fires and their impact on housing will depend on things that have likely not yet happened.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“If this is as bad as I think it is, this will save the SD housing market for the next year or two….lots of buyers with money about to enter the market”

Uh, how do you figure that? If anything, this will hasten the decline because the real values will be assessed by the insurance companies and they aint going to use 2005 comps I’m pretty sure.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The outcome of these fires and their impact on housing will depend on things that have likely not yet happened.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

We don’t accept deposits, we don’t do loans. We only change your large bills. How do we make money? Our secret is: VOLUME.

LOL. That was a classic.

I had the same question. If that bank makes no loans, they must either pay no interest, Or they do one or more of the following:
1. Pay old depositors with the money from new deposits (Ponzi-style).
2. Use the funds to trade the markets/invest in companies.
3. Invest the deposits in real estate.
4. other ideas ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

We don’t accept deposits, we don’t do loans. We only change your large bills. How do we make money? Our secret is: VOLUME.

LOL. That was a classic.

I had the same question. If that bank makes no loans, they must either pay no interest, Or they do one or more of the following:
1. Pay old depositors with the money from new deposits (Ponzi-style).
2. Use the funds to trade the markets/invest in companies.
3. Invest the deposits in real estate.
4. other ideas ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

We have seen a huge move in the strength of the Canadian dollar, coupled with a decline of 10-15% in dollar denominated San Diego RE. If I had some Canadian Dollars laying around I would be tempted to start accumulating US dollar-denominated assets (e.g. cash flow Real estate, Dividend-paying large company stock). Just maybe not San Diego RE.

I think the depreciation cycle in SD real estate has another 10-20% downside. I also think that US dollar has more downside, but not too much more against the Canadian Looney. Hard to imagine that one of our largest trading partners would not feel the effects of a US slow down. However, I don;t see a reversal of the dollar versus the Looney either.

Buying property in an unfamiliar area will likely be more expensive than saving 10-20% by timing. I would recommend moving here first and renting, at least for 6 months before purchasing.

The risk in making a mistake through naivete is much higher than the risk in seeing a reversal in the dollar/Looney valuation or an increase in SD prices.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

We have seen a huge move in the strength of the Canadian dollar, coupled with a decline of 10-15% in dollar denominated San Diego RE. If I had some Canadian Dollars laying around I would be tempted to start accumulating US dollar-denominated assets (e.g. cash flow Real estate, Dividend-paying large company stock). Just maybe not San Diego RE.

I think the depreciation cycle in SD real estate has another 10-20% downside. I also think that US dollar has more downside, but not too much more against the Canadian Looney. Hard to imagine that one of our largest trading partners would not feel the effects of a US slow down. However, I don;t see a reversal of the dollar versus the Looney either.

Buying property in an unfamiliar area will likely be more expensive than saving 10-20% by timing. I would recommend moving here first and renting, at least for 6 months before purchasing.

The risk in making a mistake through naivete is much higher than the risk in seeing a reversal in the dollar/Looney valuation or an increase in SD prices.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

So, from a Canadian perspective, San Diego prices have already declined by over 45% ! That’s Looney.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

So, from a Canadian perspective, San Diego prices have already declined by over 45% ! That’s Looney.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Many in Mira Mesa own firearms. I think it is required to have local ordnance.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Many in Mira Mesa own firearms. I think it is required to have local ordnance.

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