[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

When measured in gold, the only real money, the Dow is worth about half of what is was worth in 2000

What happens if you use the same logic for house prices ?
Does that mean that home prices are really not in a bubble, since they are now relatively cheap compared to gold ?

…. ANd don;t give me the same stale argument that houses don;t follow the same rules because they can’t be transacted across international borders or easily transferred. I can buy or sell a house with cash and use that cash to buy/sell gold. Although the market is not as liquid, it is still possible to transfer assets to/from gold, real estate, stocks and cash fairly easily.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

$300k of damage to the landscaping

What was the landscaping ? An avocado grove ?

300K for landscaping ?
I guess I am in the wrong business.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Wages are still lagging (real) inflation by a significant amount. And RE inflation by an even more significant amount.

Real Estate Inflation ? That notion is so 2005.

Let’s look at more recent times:

In the past year home prices have dropped by 5% (per Case-Shiller) and incomes have risen by 4% (per brsharma’s post above)

Wage-to-price ratio for homes just corrected 9% nationwide the past 12 months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Wages are still lagging (real) inflation by a significant amount. And RE inflation by an even more significant amount.

Real Estate Inflation ? That notion is so 2005.

Let’s look at more recent times:

In the past year home prices have dropped by 5% (per Case-Shiller) and incomes have risen by 4% (per brsharma’s post above)

Wage-to-price ratio for homes just corrected 9% nationwide the past 12 months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Wages are still lagging (real) inflation by a significant amount. And RE inflation by an even more significant amount.

Real Estate Inflation ? That notion is so 2005.

Let’s look at more recent times:

In the past year home prices have dropped by 5% (per Case-Shiller) and incomes have risen by 4% (per brsharma’s post above)

Wage-to-price ratio for homes just corrected 9% nationwide the past 12 months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And not to jump onto the marriage tax issue – but it does sound like if I ever get married my tax benefits from write-offs get killed by the additional income. sounds like a reason not to get married!
Maybe. Maybe not. At higher income, you may be in higher tax brackets, and the write-offs become more valuable, that is until you start crossing various income thresholds (e.g. approaching 150K) and various other phase outs of deductions and phase-in of AMT. Taxes are way too complex. The complications make it difficult to do what-if scenarios.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And not to jump onto the marriage tax issue – but it does sound like if I ever get married my tax benefits from write-offs get killed by the additional income. sounds like a reason not to get married!
Maybe. Maybe not. At higher income, you may be in higher tax brackets, and the write-offs become more valuable, that is until you start crossing various income thresholds (e.g. approaching 150K) and various other phase outs of deductions and phase-in of AMT. Taxes are way too complex. The complications make it difficult to do what-if scenarios.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

And not to jump onto the marriage tax issue – but it does sound like if I ever get married my tax benefits from write-offs get killed by the additional income. sounds like a reason not to get married!
Maybe. Maybe not. At higher income, you may be in higher tax brackets, and the write-offs become more valuable, that is until you start crossing various income thresholds (e.g. approaching 150K) and various other phase outs of deductions and phase-in of AMT. Taxes are way too complex. The complications make it difficult to do what-if scenarios.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Before a reset, my carrying costs are 600/mo post tax implications. Plus whatever it costs me to live somewhere else if I rent this place out.

I’m just looking at the impact over the next 3 years before the reset- not to imply that I would sell in 3 years, but I’m trying to get a financial picture before and after the reset. Once it resets, we’re talking about a bump from $1700/mo to $2400/month in cash out.

Got it.

Seems like if you can rent a place in your new town for $1100 per month it is essentially a wash in the short run.

Now it just boils down to whether you want to toss away 70K now, or cross your fingers and either toss away 100K 3 years from now or break even maybe a decade or more from now, or something in between.

Moving to the new town/job likely means a bump in pay and more up-side. Whatever you do, don’t make the career choice based on your housing situation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Before a reset, my carrying costs are 600/mo post tax implications. Plus whatever it costs me to live somewhere else if I rent this place out.

I’m just looking at the impact over the next 3 years before the reset- not to imply that I would sell in 3 years, but I’m trying to get a financial picture before and after the reset. Once it resets, we’re talking about a bump from $1700/mo to $2400/month in cash out.

Got it.

Seems like if you can rent a place in your new town for $1100 per month it is essentially a wash in the short run.

Now it just boils down to whether you want to toss away 70K now, or cross your fingers and either toss away 100K 3 years from now or break even maybe a decade or more from now, or something in between.

Moving to the new town/job likely means a bump in pay and more up-side. Whatever you do, don’t make the career choice based on your housing situation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Before a reset, my carrying costs are 600/mo post tax implications. Plus whatever it costs me to live somewhere else if I rent this place out.

I’m just looking at the impact over the next 3 years before the reset- not to imply that I would sell in 3 years, but I’m trying to get a financial picture before and after the reset. Once it resets, we’re talking about a bump from $1700/mo to $2400/month in cash out.

Got it.

Seems like if you can rent a place in your new town for $1100 per month it is essentially a wash in the short run.

Now it just boils down to whether you want to toss away 70K now, or cross your fingers and either toss away 100K 3 years from now or break even maybe a decade or more from now, or something in between.

Moving to the new town/job likely means a bump in pay and more up-side. Whatever you do, don’t make the career choice based on your housing situation.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Historically, in high inflation environments the price of hard assets goes up. Real estate is a hard asset. So is gold.

If the current dollar decline results in increased inflation, I would expect that the remaining 30-40% or so price decline in San Diego could consist of half due to inflaiton and half due to nominal price declines.

What leads one to conclude that a declining dollar and rampant inflation would put downward pressure on real estate prices. I do not understand the logic of those who hold this view. Is there some sort of mass cognitive dissonance going on ?

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