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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantRemember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.
ParticipantRemember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.
ParticipantRemember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.
ParticipantRemember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.
ParticipantIt’s called CROWD SENTIMENT and when lay investors such as yourself come out of the wordwork to short or buy puts, it is a pretty darn good contrarian indicator that perhaps the worst is behind us. Thanks for the confirmation and best of luck!
The problem with this argument is that the “CROWD SENTIMENT” on this board has always been this negative.
ParticipantIt’s called CROWD SENTIMENT and when lay investors such as yourself come out of the wordwork to short or buy puts, it is a pretty darn good contrarian indicator that perhaps the worst is behind us. Thanks for the confirmation and best of luck!
The problem with this argument is that the “CROWD SENTIMENT” on this board has always been this negative.
ParticipantIt’s called CROWD SENTIMENT and when lay investors such as yourself come out of the wordwork to short or buy puts, it is a pretty darn good contrarian indicator that perhaps the worst is behind us. Thanks for the confirmation and best of luck!
The problem with this argument is that the “CROWD SENTIMENT” on this board has always been this negative.
ParticipantIt’s called CROWD SENTIMENT and when lay investors such as yourself come out of the wordwork to short or buy puts, it is a pretty darn good contrarian indicator that perhaps the worst is behind us. Thanks for the confirmation and best of luck!
The problem with this argument is that the “CROWD SENTIMENT” on this board has always been this negative.
ParticipantIt’s called CROWD SENTIMENT and when lay investors such as yourself come out of the wordwork to short or buy puts, it is a pretty darn good contrarian indicator that perhaps the worst is behind us. Thanks for the confirmation and best of luck!
The problem with this argument is that the “CROWD SENTIMENT” on this board has always been this negative.
ParticipantFor the most part the ship has sailed on many of those shorting opportunities.
I think I agree with that. But I don;t think it’s time to be long-term bullish either (as RO suggests). The lenders, builders and other related stocks will be very volatile going forward. Probably an opportunity to make money on the volatility if you are into short-term trading. But short-term timing is tricky and not my cup of tea. Some of these companies will eventually come out OK, others will not. They will either get bought out at pennies on the dollar (relative to 2 years ago) or go BK. A minority will likely even prove to be a great investment at today’s prices. But, selecting the right choices today is definitely no gimme.
If anyone think it’s a bottom in these kinds of stocks, please post suggestions of those stocks here. We can revisit every month to track where they are.
ParticipantFor the most part the ship has sailed on many of those shorting opportunities.
I think I agree with that. But I don;t think it’s time to be long-term bullish either (as RO suggests). The lenders, builders and other related stocks will be very volatile going forward. Probably an opportunity to make money on the volatility if you are into short-term trading. But short-term timing is tricky and not my cup of tea. Some of these companies will eventually come out OK, others will not. They will either get bought out at pennies on the dollar (relative to 2 years ago) or go BK. A minority will likely even prove to be a great investment at today’s prices. But, selecting the right choices today is definitely no gimme.
If anyone think it’s a bottom in these kinds of stocks, please post suggestions of those stocks here. We can revisit every month to track where they are.
ParticipantFor the most part the ship has sailed on many of those shorting opportunities.
I think I agree with that. But I don;t think it’s time to be long-term bullish either (as RO suggests). The lenders, builders and other related stocks will be very volatile going forward. Probably an opportunity to make money on the volatility if you are into short-term trading. But short-term timing is tricky and not my cup of tea. Some of these companies will eventually come out OK, others will not. They will either get bought out at pennies on the dollar (relative to 2 years ago) or go BK. A minority will likely even prove to be a great investment at today’s prices. But, selecting the right choices today is definitely no gimme.
If anyone think it’s a bottom in these kinds of stocks, please post suggestions of those stocks here. We can revisit every month to track where they are.
ParticipantFor the most part the ship has sailed on many of those shorting opportunities.
I think I agree with that. But I don;t think it’s time to be long-term bullish either (as RO suggests). The lenders, builders and other related stocks will be very volatile going forward. Probably an opportunity to make money on the volatility if you are into short-term trading. But short-term timing is tricky and not my cup of tea. Some of these companies will eventually come out OK, others will not. They will either get bought out at pennies on the dollar (relative to 2 years ago) or go BK. A minority will likely even prove to be a great investment at today’s prices. But, selecting the right choices today is definitely no gimme.
If anyone think it’s a bottom in these kinds of stocks, please post suggestions of those stocks here. We can revisit every month to track where they are.
ParticipantFor the most part the ship has sailed on many of those shorting opportunities.
I think I agree with that. But I don;t think it’s time to be long-term bullish either (as RO suggests). The lenders, builders and other related stocks will be very volatile going forward. Probably an opportunity to make money on the volatility if you are into short-term trading. But short-term timing is tricky and not my cup of tea. Some of these companies will eventually come out OK, others will not. They will either get bought out at pennies on the dollar (relative to 2 years ago) or go BK. A minority will likely even prove to be a great investment at today’s prices. But, selecting the right choices today is definitely no gimme.
If anyone think it’s a bottom in these kinds of stocks, please post suggestions of those stocks here. We can revisit every month to track where they are.
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