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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantSecond, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….
That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.
That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.
ParticipantSecond, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….
That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.
That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.
ParticipantSecond, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….
That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.
That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.
ParticipantSecond, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….
That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.
That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.
ParticipantA more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.
ParticipantA more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.
ParticipantA more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.
ParticipantA more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.
ParticipantA more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.
ParticipantI’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.
Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.
* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp
ParticipantI’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.
Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.
* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp
ParticipantI’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.
Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.
* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp
ParticipantI’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.
Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.
* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp
ParticipantI’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.
Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.
* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp
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