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May 2, 2008 at 9:59 AM in reply to: Causative Role for Non-US Immigrants in Bubble and Pop Land? #197828May 2, 2008 at 9:59 AM in reply to: Causative Role for Non-US Immigrants in Bubble and Pop Land? #197865
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI believe that American Risk-taking is what made this country great. It is both cultural and also possibly genetic, in that most Americans have descended from those who took a risk to leave their homeland in search of something better.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/02/risk_taking_cap.html
Participantesmith –
Love the charts on your blog, especially the breakdown of the different areas !Participantesmith –
Love the charts on your blog, especially the breakdown of the different areas !Participantesmith –
Love the charts on your blog, especially the breakdown of the different areas !Participantesmith –
Love the charts on your blog, especially the breakdown of the different areas !Participantesmith –
Love the charts on your blog, especially the breakdown of the different areas !ParticipantSvelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.
ParticipantSvelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.
ParticipantSvelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.
ParticipantSvelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.
ParticipantSvelte – A couple of us gave our opinions, and were slammed because our answers don’t account for a deflationary death spiral. Based on long-term averages and reversions to them, I expect another 10-15% off Central SD prices (e.g. Clairemont/Mira Mesa), for a total of about 35-40% nominal from the peak. I expect that to be hit within the next 18 months or less.
ParticipantAs for current rental rate conditions in the SD area, they appear to be tracking inflation at least through 1Q2008 …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080417-9999-1b17rent.html
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/04/18/business/556f18fc997c15ad8825742e0061b53a.txt
P.S. – As for the original topic regarding flattening of inventory … This is necessary, but not sifficient for price stabilization. We need to see an extended period of increasing sales at the current inventory levels to even talk about a bottom. Once we see decreasing Months of inventory (and account for seasonality), then you can start to think about price stabilization.
ParticipantAs for current rental rate conditions in the SD area, they appear to be tracking inflation at least through 1Q2008 …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080417-9999-1b17rent.html
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/04/18/business/556f18fc997c15ad8825742e0061b53a.txt
P.S. – As for the original topic regarding flattening of inventory … This is necessary, but not sifficient for price stabilization. We need to see an extended period of increasing sales at the current inventory levels to even talk about a bottom. Once we see decreasing Months of inventory (and account for seasonality), then you can start to think about price stabilization.
ParticipantAs for current rental rate conditions in the SD area, they appear to be tracking inflation at least through 1Q2008 …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080417-9999-1b17rent.html
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/04/18/business/556f18fc997c15ad8825742e0061b53a.txt
P.S. – As for the original topic regarding flattening of inventory … This is necessary, but not sifficient for price stabilization. We need to see an extended period of increasing sales at the current inventory levels to even talk about a bottom. Once we see decreasing Months of inventory (and account for seasonality), then you can start to think about price stabilization.
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