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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantRecent population demographics for San Diego.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20080320-9999-1n20census.html
Net domestic outmigration has declined significantly in 2006-2007 compared to 2003-2006.
Note that that in the past 4 years, while we had net outmigration of about 115,000 people, the net population continued to increase due to births and foreign migration.
I would think that this would result in increased demand for affordable rentals. Low- to mid-range rental rates are not likely to recede under these demographic conditions.
Participantless demand: There are more people moving out of San Diego than coming in.
In the near-term rents are likely to be flatten due to softness in the economy. So I agree with you on economic cycle effects.
But, while the net domestic migration has been negative (more people moving out than moving in), the population of San Diego has continued to increase.
Now that housing has busted the amount of new homes being built has declined drastically. (less supply)
Another factor that is ignored is the potential for net migration to turn positive. As those who moved out to Riverside County are foreclosed on and/or want to live closer to job centers because of the price of gas, you can expect at least some flow of people into San Diego from the bedroom/commute communities like Temecula. It will be attractive to rent a 1400 2-bedroom apartment 5-10 minutes from work and pay 150 bucks a month in gas, than to pay 1100 for a place in outlying community and pay 500 per month in gas. Not to mention added insurance and maintenance costs and time wasted in traffic.
My opinion is that rents will be soft along with the economy, but will track inflation.
Participantless demand: There are more people moving out of San Diego than coming in.
In the near-term rents are likely to be flatten due to softness in the economy. So I agree with you on economic cycle effects.
But, while the net domestic migration has been negative (more people moving out than moving in), the population of San Diego has continued to increase.
Now that housing has busted the amount of new homes being built has declined drastically. (less supply)
Another factor that is ignored is the potential for net migration to turn positive. As those who moved out to Riverside County are foreclosed on and/or want to live closer to job centers because of the price of gas, you can expect at least some flow of people into San Diego from the bedroom/commute communities like Temecula. It will be attractive to rent a 1400 2-bedroom apartment 5-10 minutes from work and pay 150 bucks a month in gas, than to pay 1100 for a place in outlying community and pay 500 per month in gas. Not to mention added insurance and maintenance costs and time wasted in traffic.
My opinion is that rents will be soft along with the economy, but will track inflation.
Participantless demand: There are more people moving out of San Diego than coming in.
In the near-term rents are likely to be flatten due to softness in the economy. So I agree with you on economic cycle effects.
But, while the net domestic migration has been negative (more people moving out than moving in), the population of San Diego has continued to increase.
Now that housing has busted the amount of new homes being built has declined drastically. (less supply)
Another factor that is ignored is the potential for net migration to turn positive. As those who moved out to Riverside County are foreclosed on and/or want to live closer to job centers because of the price of gas, you can expect at least some flow of people into San Diego from the bedroom/commute communities like Temecula. It will be attractive to rent a 1400 2-bedroom apartment 5-10 minutes from work and pay 150 bucks a month in gas, than to pay 1100 for a place in outlying community and pay 500 per month in gas. Not to mention added insurance and maintenance costs and time wasted in traffic.
My opinion is that rents will be soft along with the economy, but will track inflation.
Participantless demand: There are more people moving out of San Diego than coming in.
In the near-term rents are likely to be flatten due to softness in the economy. So I agree with you on economic cycle effects.
But, while the net domestic migration has been negative (more people moving out than moving in), the population of San Diego has continued to increase.
Now that housing has busted the amount of new homes being built has declined drastically. (less supply)
Another factor that is ignored is the potential for net migration to turn positive. As those who moved out to Riverside County are foreclosed on and/or want to live closer to job centers because of the price of gas, you can expect at least some flow of people into San Diego from the bedroom/commute communities like Temecula. It will be attractive to rent a 1400 2-bedroom apartment 5-10 minutes from work and pay 150 bucks a month in gas, than to pay 1100 for a place in outlying community and pay 500 per month in gas. Not to mention added insurance and maintenance costs and time wasted in traffic.
My opinion is that rents will be soft along with the economy, but will track inflation.
Participantless demand: There are more people moving out of San Diego than coming in.
In the near-term rents are likely to be flatten due to softness in the economy. So I agree with you on economic cycle effects.
But, while the net domestic migration has been negative (more people moving out than moving in), the population of San Diego has continued to increase.
Now that housing has busted the amount of new homes being built has declined drastically. (less supply)
Another factor that is ignored is the potential for net migration to turn positive. As those who moved out to Riverside County are foreclosed on and/or want to live closer to job centers because of the price of gas, you can expect at least some flow of people into San Diego from the bedroom/commute communities like Temecula. It will be attractive to rent a 1400 2-bedroom apartment 5-10 minutes from work and pay 150 bucks a month in gas, than to pay 1100 for a place in outlying community and pay 500 per month in gas. Not to mention added insurance and maintenance costs and time wasted in traffic.
My opinion is that rents will be soft along with the economy, but will track inflation.
ParticipantIt is not for a real estate investor who wants to hold and touch and feel, and fall in love with, and micro-manage his/her property. It is for someone looking for a little diversification. There is a component of “Socially Redeeming Value” in the transactions as well.
I have recently seen similar concepts being floated around. I have invested in real estate in the past and still own an investment property. The primary reason I have individual real estate as part of my portfolio is that (in addition to diversification) it is an investment that I can touch and feel and that I have control over. I have the option of moving into it if I want to move back to the SD area or I fall on rough times move back in because my payments are signficantly cheaper than renting. I also could use it as a second home or retirement pad once it is paid off.
If I want diversification into real estate or cash flow I buy REITS. If I buy single family homes or a condo, it is because I have a vision for changing the property in the future or have flexible plans for that property.
That said, assuming 30K, these would be tempting if one could actually clear $400 per month cash flow. That’s equivalent to 16% yield. My main worries in that situation are vacancy rates and job stability in the region. Supply of vacant/foreclosed properties and …
But, the biggest issue I have is maintenance costs. It turns out that a 1000 square foot home in the midwest has about 70-80% of the maintenance costs of a 1000 sf home in San Diego. However, that house might be 50-100K in the midwest (or 30K in this case) versus 400K in San Diego. SO, if I spend 2000 per year on maintenance for my 400K home it’s no big deal. But, if I spend $1500 maintenance on my 30K home somewhere in Ohio. Well that’s significant and cuts into cash flow. My maintenance figures are probably on the low side, too.
As for where these properties are located …
I would assume that these properties are most likely in the states of Ohio and/or Michigan.ParticipantIt is not for a real estate investor who wants to hold and touch and feel, and fall in love with, and micro-manage his/her property. It is for someone looking for a little diversification. There is a component of “Socially Redeeming Value” in the transactions as well.
I have recently seen similar concepts being floated around. I have invested in real estate in the past and still own an investment property. The primary reason I have individual real estate as part of my portfolio is that (in addition to diversification) it is an investment that I can touch and feel and that I have control over. I have the option of moving into it if I want to move back to the SD area or I fall on rough times move back in because my payments are signficantly cheaper than renting. I also could use it as a second home or retirement pad once it is paid off.
If I want diversification into real estate or cash flow I buy REITS. If I buy single family homes or a condo, it is because I have a vision for changing the property in the future or have flexible plans for that property.
That said, assuming 30K, these would be tempting if one could actually clear $400 per month cash flow. That’s equivalent to 16% yield. My main worries in that situation are vacancy rates and job stability in the region. Supply of vacant/foreclosed properties and …
But, the biggest issue I have is maintenance costs. It turns out that a 1000 square foot home in the midwest has about 70-80% of the maintenance costs of a 1000 sf home in San Diego. However, that house might be 50-100K in the midwest (or 30K in this case) versus 400K in San Diego. SO, if I spend 2000 per year on maintenance for my 400K home it’s no big deal. But, if I spend $1500 maintenance on my 30K home somewhere in Ohio. Well that’s significant and cuts into cash flow. My maintenance figures are probably on the low side, too.
As for where these properties are located …
I would assume that these properties are most likely in the states of Ohio and/or Michigan.ParticipantIt is not for a real estate investor who wants to hold and touch and feel, and fall in love with, and micro-manage his/her property. It is for someone looking for a little diversification. There is a component of “Socially Redeeming Value” in the transactions as well.
I have recently seen similar concepts being floated around. I have invested in real estate in the past and still own an investment property. The primary reason I have individual real estate as part of my portfolio is that (in addition to diversification) it is an investment that I can touch and feel and that I have control over. I have the option of moving into it if I want to move back to the SD area or I fall on rough times move back in because my payments are signficantly cheaper than renting. I also could use it as a second home or retirement pad once it is paid off.
If I want diversification into real estate or cash flow I buy REITS. If I buy single family homes or a condo, it is because I have a vision for changing the property in the future or have flexible plans for that property.
That said, assuming 30K, these would be tempting if one could actually clear $400 per month cash flow. That’s equivalent to 16% yield. My main worries in that situation are vacancy rates and job stability in the region. Supply of vacant/foreclosed properties and …
But, the biggest issue I have is maintenance costs. It turns out that a 1000 square foot home in the midwest has about 70-80% of the maintenance costs of a 1000 sf home in San Diego. However, that house might be 50-100K in the midwest (or 30K in this case) versus 400K in San Diego. SO, if I spend 2000 per year on maintenance for my 400K home it’s no big deal. But, if I spend $1500 maintenance on my 30K home somewhere in Ohio. Well that’s significant and cuts into cash flow. My maintenance figures are probably on the low side, too.
As for where these properties are located …
I would assume that these properties are most likely in the states of Ohio and/or Michigan.ParticipantIt is not for a real estate investor who wants to hold and touch and feel, and fall in love with, and micro-manage his/her property. It is for someone looking for a little diversification. There is a component of “Socially Redeeming Value” in the transactions as well.
I have recently seen similar concepts being floated around. I have invested in real estate in the past and still own an investment property. The primary reason I have individual real estate as part of my portfolio is that (in addition to diversification) it is an investment that I can touch and feel and that I have control over. I have the option of moving into it if I want to move back to the SD area or I fall on rough times move back in because my payments are signficantly cheaper than renting. I also could use it as a second home or retirement pad once it is paid off.
If I want diversification into real estate or cash flow I buy REITS. If I buy single family homes or a condo, it is because I have a vision for changing the property in the future or have flexible plans for that property.
That said, assuming 30K, these would be tempting if one could actually clear $400 per month cash flow. That’s equivalent to 16% yield. My main worries in that situation are vacancy rates and job stability in the region. Supply of vacant/foreclosed properties and …
But, the biggest issue I have is maintenance costs. It turns out that a 1000 square foot home in the midwest has about 70-80% of the maintenance costs of a 1000 sf home in San Diego. However, that house might be 50-100K in the midwest (or 30K in this case) versus 400K in San Diego. SO, if I spend 2000 per year on maintenance for my 400K home it’s no big deal. But, if I spend $1500 maintenance on my 30K home somewhere in Ohio. Well that’s significant and cuts into cash flow. My maintenance figures are probably on the low side, too.
As for where these properties are located …
I would assume that these properties are most likely in the states of Ohio and/or Michigan.ParticipantIt is not for a real estate investor who wants to hold and touch and feel, and fall in love with, and micro-manage his/her property. It is for someone looking for a little diversification. There is a component of “Socially Redeeming Value” in the transactions as well.
I have recently seen similar concepts being floated around. I have invested in real estate in the past and still own an investment property. The primary reason I have individual real estate as part of my portfolio is that (in addition to diversification) it is an investment that I can touch and feel and that I have control over. I have the option of moving into it if I want to move back to the SD area or I fall on rough times move back in because my payments are signficantly cheaper than renting. I also could use it as a second home or retirement pad once it is paid off.
If I want diversification into real estate or cash flow I buy REITS. If I buy single family homes or a condo, it is because I have a vision for changing the property in the future or have flexible plans for that property.
That said, assuming 30K, these would be tempting if one could actually clear $400 per month cash flow. That’s equivalent to 16% yield. My main worries in that situation are vacancy rates and job stability in the region. Supply of vacant/foreclosed properties and …
But, the biggest issue I have is maintenance costs. It turns out that a 1000 square foot home in the midwest has about 70-80% of the maintenance costs of a 1000 sf home in San Diego. However, that house might be 50-100K in the midwest (or 30K in this case) versus 400K in San Diego. SO, if I spend 2000 per year on maintenance for my 400K home it’s no big deal. But, if I spend $1500 maintenance on my 30K home somewhere in Ohio. Well that’s significant and cuts into cash flow. My maintenance figures are probably on the low side, too.
As for where these properties are located …
I would assume that these properties are most likely in the states of Ohio and/or Michigan.ParticipantRegarding Reparations.
This would be a complicated subject. If descendants of one group need to pay reparations to descendants of another group it can get complicated.
Take Barack Obama for example:
He is the son of a white woman from Kansas and a black Kenyan immigrant. Should he pay reparations or receive them ?
He is not the descendant of slaves, but may be the descendant of slave owners [Ref 1].Perhaps we should compensate all descendants of women in this country because they were taxed without representation prior to obtaining their right to vote.
I think we should get over it as a society and focus on getting rid of current discrimination and social intolerance of all types (well, except discrimination against stupid people, let’s keep that).
[Ref 1]
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/politics/bal-te.obama02mar02,0,3453027.storyParticipantRegarding Reparations.
This would be a complicated subject. If descendants of one group need to pay reparations to descendants of another group it can get complicated.
Take Barack Obama for example:
He is the son of a white woman from Kansas and a black Kenyan immigrant. Should he pay reparations or receive them ?
He is not the descendant of slaves, but may be the descendant of slave owners [Ref 1].Perhaps we should compensate all descendants of women in this country because they were taxed without representation prior to obtaining their right to vote.
I think we should get over it as a society and focus on getting rid of current discrimination and social intolerance of all types (well, except discrimination against stupid people, let’s keep that).
[Ref 1]
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/politics/bal-te.obama02mar02,0,3453027.storyParticipantRegarding Reparations.
This would be a complicated subject. If descendants of one group need to pay reparations to descendants of another group it can get complicated.
Take Barack Obama for example:
He is the son of a white woman from Kansas and a black Kenyan immigrant. Should he pay reparations or receive them ?
He is not the descendant of slaves, but may be the descendant of slave owners [Ref 1].Perhaps we should compensate all descendants of women in this country because they were taxed without representation prior to obtaining their right to vote.
I think we should get over it as a society and focus on getting rid of current discrimination and social intolerance of all types (well, except discrimination against stupid people, let’s keep that).
[Ref 1]
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/politics/bal-te.obama02mar02,0,3453027.story -
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