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July 28, 2008 at 5:32 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248551July 28, 2008 at 5:32 PM in reply to: La Jolla SFRs at $583/Sqft. last month. Condos also drop over 45% in Price #248559
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantA pet peeve of mine: Monthly median zip-code numbers !
These monthly zip-code specific median prices are extremely noisy. Taken in isolation they do not provide an accurate measure of the change in the price of houses.One must look at the trend and smooth month-to-month fluctuations and consider the amount of noise in the statistic.
The 32% decline from June 2007- June 2008 is not necessarily indicative, because the monthly median is such a noisy indicator.
Consider the March 2008 numbers from the same source. March 2008 saw a 46% increase in the price in La Jolla. I don;t believe that was indicative of the market at that point in time either.
See the La Jolla monthly median chart below. The month-to-month measure is extremely noisy. Differences of month-to-month figures (e.g. year-over-year) are even noisier because you are differencing two noisy variables (ask someone with a background in statistics if you don’t get this.)
Based on the trends plotted, and accounting for noise in the measurements, I’d estimate that La Jolla SFRs are down between 16% to 22% from the
peak in late 2005 (most of which is in the last 12-18 months) and trending down.[img_assist|nid=8416|title=La Jolla monthly medians – DataQuick as reported by signonsandiego.com|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]
ParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
ParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
ParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
ParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
ParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
Participant[quote=sdnativeson]47% decline? How much was the appreciation runup? 100%,150%, 200%? If the market is going to become “affordable” to the “average” San Diegan 47% isn’t close.
[/quote]Well, if prices increased by 100%, then dropped by 47% they’d be just about right back where they started now wouldn’t they ?
Participant[quote=sdnativeson]47% decline? How much was the appreciation runup? 100%,150%, 200%? If the market is going to become “affordable” to the “average” San Diegan 47% isn’t close.
[/quote]Well, if prices increased by 100%, then dropped by 47% they’d be just about right back where they started now wouldn’t they ?
Participant[quote=sdnativeson]47% decline? How much was the appreciation runup? 100%,150%, 200%? If the market is going to become “affordable” to the “average” San Diegan 47% isn’t close.
[/quote]Well, if prices increased by 100%, then dropped by 47% they’d be just about right back where they started now wouldn’t they ?
Participant[quote=sdnativeson]47% decline? How much was the appreciation runup? 100%,150%, 200%? If the market is going to become “affordable” to the “average” San Diegan 47% isn’t close.
[/quote]Well, if prices increased by 100%, then dropped by 47% they’d be just about right back where they started now wouldn’t they ?
Participant[quote=sdnativeson]47% decline? How much was the appreciation runup? 100%,150%, 200%? If the market is going to become “affordable” to the “average” San Diegan 47% isn’t close.
[/quote]Well, if prices increased by 100%, then dropped by 47% they’d be just about right back where they started now wouldn’t they ?
ParticipantMore like West Clairemont, but this is a nice neighborhood. Moraga is a bit busy at times.
The price and listing seem to be aimed at creating a bidding war. But this house is more than a fixer. It’s pretty much trashed.
Check out the pix on sdlookup …
My favorite is the bathroom picture with the “Rifleman” magazine. Personally, I think I’d stay away from this situation.
ParticipantMore like West Clairemont, but this is a nice neighborhood. Moraga is a bit busy at times.
The price and listing seem to be aimed at creating a bidding war. But this house is more than a fixer. It’s pretty much trashed.
Check out the pix on sdlookup …
My favorite is the bathroom picture with the “Rifleman” magazine. Personally, I think I’d stay away from this situation.
ParticipantMore like West Clairemont, but this is a nice neighborhood. Moraga is a bit busy at times.
The price and listing seem to be aimed at creating a bidding war. But this house is more than a fixer. It’s pretty much trashed.
Check out the pix on sdlookup …
My favorite is the bathroom picture with the “Rifleman” magazine. Personally, I think I’d stay away from this situation.
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