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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantBusiness cycle phasing (US hits bottom first and presumably recovers first while rest of world lags), or anticipation thereof would tend to lead to dollar strength at what intuitively should be a weak point in time.
The dollar simply sucks less than the currencies it is being compared to (e.g.Euro). The U.S. is much further along in this down cycle/recession than the rest of the World (which until a few months ago was assumed by many to be “decoupled”).
Participant[quote=peterb]Basic economics should be more respected here and I think this is why our country is in such trouble. From Wall Street to main street.
…Rationalizing the reasons and logic is all well and fine…it’s a home, rents will cover PITI, prices cant get too much lower, etc… Are all just that, rationalizations not logical analysis.
[/quote]
Funny, I always thought that basing a decision on fundamentals (such as rents relative to price and income) was logical and following basic economics.
One should not assume that because property in Temecula has depreciated by 40% over the past three years, that that trend will continue indefinitely. Basing a decision on anticipated future direction, rather than comparison to rent and one’s income is exactly what got us into this mess.
Participant[quote=peterb]Basic economics should be more respected here and I think this is why our country is in such trouble. From Wall Street to main street.
…Rationalizing the reasons and logic is all well and fine…it’s a home, rents will cover PITI, prices cant get too much lower, etc… Are all just that, rationalizations not logical analysis.
[/quote]
Funny, I always thought that basing a decision on fundamentals (such as rents relative to price and income) was logical and following basic economics.
One should not assume that because property in Temecula has depreciated by 40% over the past three years, that that trend will continue indefinitely. Basing a decision on anticipated future direction, rather than comparison to rent and one’s income is exactly what got us into this mess.
Participant[quote=peterb]Basic economics should be more respected here and I think this is why our country is in such trouble. From Wall Street to main street.
…Rationalizing the reasons and logic is all well and fine…it’s a home, rents will cover PITI, prices cant get too much lower, etc… Are all just that, rationalizations not logical analysis.
[/quote]
Funny, I always thought that basing a decision on fundamentals (such as rents relative to price and income) was logical and following basic economics.
One should not assume that because property in Temecula has depreciated by 40% over the past three years, that that trend will continue indefinitely. Basing a decision on anticipated future direction, rather than comparison to rent and one’s income is exactly what got us into this mess.
Participant[quote=peterb]Basic economics should be more respected here and I think this is why our country is in such trouble. From Wall Street to main street.
…Rationalizing the reasons and logic is all well and fine…it’s a home, rents will cover PITI, prices cant get too much lower, etc… Are all just that, rationalizations not logical analysis.
[/quote]
Funny, I always thought that basing a decision on fundamentals (such as rents relative to price and income) was logical and following basic economics.
One should not assume that because property in Temecula has depreciated by 40% over the past three years, that that trend will continue indefinitely. Basing a decision on anticipated future direction, rather than comparison to rent and one’s income is exactly what got us into this mess.
Participant[quote=peterb]Basic economics should be more respected here and I think this is why our country is in such trouble. From Wall Street to main street.
…Rationalizing the reasons and logic is all well and fine…it’s a home, rents will cover PITI, prices cant get too much lower, etc… Are all just that, rationalizations not logical analysis.
[/quote]
Funny, I always thought that basing a decision on fundamentals (such as rents relative to price and income) was logical and following basic economics.
One should not assume that because property in Temecula has depreciated by 40% over the past three years, that that trend will continue indefinitely. Basing a decision on anticipated future direction, rather than comparison to rent and one’s income is exactly what got us into this mess.
September 26, 2008 at 10:37 AM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276005Participant[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”
I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.
[/quote]
My bad it was typo :
Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]
I still don’t understand.
Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.
OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)
I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.
September 26, 2008 at 10:37 AM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276258Participant[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”
I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.
[/quote]
My bad it was typo :
Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]
I still don’t understand.
Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.
OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)
I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.
September 26, 2008 at 10:37 AM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276261Participant[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”
I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.
[/quote]
My bad it was typo :
Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]
I still don’t understand.
Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.
OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)
I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.
September 26, 2008 at 10:37 AM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276310Participant[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”
I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.
[/quote]
My bad it was typo :
Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]
I still don’t understand.
Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.
OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)
I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.
September 26, 2008 at 10:37 AM in reply to: What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months? #276327Participant[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”
I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.
[/quote]
My bad it was typo :
Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]
I still don’t understand.
Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.
OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)
I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.
ParticipantBuying at a time of excessive pessimism is usually, but not always a good long-term strategy.
Buying a house to live in at a price that is on par or less than renting where the payment is 15% or less of your income at a time of excessive pessimism is a no brainer.
ParticipantBuying at a time of excessive pessimism is usually, but not always a good long-term strategy.
Buying a house to live in at a price that is on par or less than renting where the payment is 15% or less of your income at a time of excessive pessimism is a no brainer.
ParticipantBuying at a time of excessive pessimism is usually, but not always a good long-term strategy.
Buying a house to live in at a price that is on par or less than renting where the payment is 15% or less of your income at a time of excessive pessimism is a no brainer.
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