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April 30, 2009 at 8:26 AM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #390604April 30, 2009 at 8:26 AM in reply to: What do folks think about the stock market these days? #390745
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI usually am ridiculed on this board when saying this, but I am dollar-cost averaging my retirement accounts back into this market, after being heavily (~60%) in cash late last year. I expect some more dips between May and October due to seasonal weakness, but want to be dialed back up to at least 60-70% stocks by the fall.
Gradually moving stocks to cash in 2008 saved me some losses, though I still took a pretty decent hit.
I expect that others will be sick of their paltry 0.05% Money market option in their retirement accounts and look for better returns. Even the paltry 2-3% dividend of stocks in the S&P 500 will start to look good.
I anticipate that in 10 years I will be rewarded for this move.
ParticipantIf you have avoided the whole bubble so far and have not bought yet, the housing market has given you a once or twice per lieftime opportunity. The strategy outlined in the original post would squander this gift.
ParticipantIf you have avoided the whole bubble so far and have not bought yet, the housing market has given you a once or twice per lieftime opportunity. The strategy outlined in the original post would squander this gift.
ParticipantIf you have avoided the whole bubble so far and have not bought yet, the housing market has given you a once or twice per lieftime opportunity. The strategy outlined in the original post would squander this gift.
ParticipantIf you have avoided the whole bubble so far and have not bought yet, the housing market has given you a once or twice per lieftime opportunity. The strategy outlined in the original post would squander this gift.
ParticipantIf you have avoided the whole bubble so far and have not bought yet, the housing market has given you a once or twice per lieftime opportunity. The strategy outlined in the original post would squander this gift.
Participant[quote=Oxford]
My agent says to sit tight until Oct/Nov when the spring buyers are gone. Then hopefully inventory will swell and with less buyers — prices could drop.
[/quote]
I have to agree with this. Regardless of whether the market has bottomed or not, there is always less of a frenzy in the Sept-Dec quarter. Prices may or may not be down, there may or may not be more inventory. But during that part of the year there are ALWAYS fewer buyers.
Participant[quote=Oxford]
My agent says to sit tight until Oct/Nov when the spring buyers are gone. Then hopefully inventory will swell and with less buyers — prices could drop.
[/quote]
I have to agree with this. Regardless of whether the market has bottomed or not, there is always less of a frenzy in the Sept-Dec quarter. Prices may or may not be down, there may or may not be more inventory. But during that part of the year there are ALWAYS fewer buyers.
Participant[quote=Oxford]
My agent says to sit tight until Oct/Nov when the spring buyers are gone. Then hopefully inventory will swell and with less buyers — prices could drop.
[/quote]
I have to agree with this. Regardless of whether the market has bottomed or not, there is always less of a frenzy in the Sept-Dec quarter. Prices may or may not be down, there may or may not be more inventory. But during that part of the year there are ALWAYS fewer buyers.
Participant[quote=Oxford]
My agent says to sit tight until Oct/Nov when the spring buyers are gone. Then hopefully inventory will swell and with less buyers — prices could drop.
[/quote]
I have to agree with this. Regardless of whether the market has bottomed or not, there is always less of a frenzy in the Sept-Dec quarter. Prices may or may not be down, there may or may not be more inventory. But during that part of the year there are ALWAYS fewer buyers.
Participant[quote=Oxford]
My agent says to sit tight until Oct/Nov when the spring buyers are gone. Then hopefully inventory will swell and with less buyers — prices could drop.
[/quote]
I have to agree with this. Regardless of whether the market has bottomed or not, there is always less of a frenzy in the Sept-Dec quarter. Prices may or may not be down, there may or may not be more inventory. But during that part of the year there are ALWAYS fewer buyers.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.
Participant[quote=CA renter]
We are not seeing real market interest rates, the govt/banks are keeping inventory off the market, and every dolt who buys a house this year gets $8K to “help them out.” Every FB specuvestor is painted as a “victim” and the criminals who got us into this mess (banks, regulators, etc.) are allowed to claim that “nobody could see this coming.”
Until all this changes, we will not know what the market is **really** doing. The current “healthy” market is an illusion.
[/quote]By this measure the market is ALWAYS an illusion.
It is the result of multiple factors affecting demand and supply. At any point in time, some of these factors are “artificial” such as government subsidies, tax breaks, rent inflation, low interest rates, high interest rates, banks constraining supply, builders overbuilding, builders underbuilding.These factors then collude (or more correctly, those who manipulate these factors are colluding) to result in the market at any given point in time.
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