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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=Jazzman]Are you comparing apples with apples. Urban areas with metropolitan centers? I doubt it.[/quote]
Yes I probably did not compare apples to apples.
I guess the statistics can be skewed by defining the areas differently.
But still, I thought it was interesting that what I thought was the most sprawling place in the country is actually the most dense, by some metrics. WHo knew ?
ParticipantAs for SHiller …
I tend to agree (mostly) with him. I think demographic trends favor the urban areas o=ver suburban. But I wouldn’t say the suburbs are NEVER coming back. For two reasons:
1. There might be economic factors that make living in the suburbs opr exurbs more favorable in the future (e.g. high prices in the urban core. We saw this with many people moving to Riverside County in the early 2000’s. Technologies such as efficient vehicles or acceptance of virtual workplaces could also impact costs to live away from urban centers.
2. Generational tastes change – Each generation tends to buck things that the previous generation favors. Right now it is desirable to live in urban areas. In 20 years, kids that grew up in densely populated areas might want to spread out more and live differently than they grew up. Tastes and trends can change a lot over 20 years.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]SoCal is one big Burb for the most part.
[/quote]This is a myth. Consider Los Angeles-Long Beach-ANaheim urban area. To many folks, this is the definition of suburban sprawl.
But, guess what ? That urban area has the highest population density in the country.
ParticipantThere has been discussion about and much ado about shadow inventory for the past four years.
But, what’s wrong with looking at housing in terms of fundamentals: price/income ratios, price to rent, payment-to-rent. Also traditional inventory-based methods seem to be reasonably good indicators as well (months inventory).
To me the issue of Shadow inventory falls in the same category as other unknowns (a war or attack on Iran, terrorist attacks on US soil, hyperinflation, US bond defaults, gas prices, the Chargers firing Norv).
You can worry about these things, but there’s no real way to measure the likelihood of them happening.
Take the persistent threat of terrorism since 9/11. Yeah, it could happen and impact you personally, but I wouldn’t plan too much of my life around the next likely terrorist attack on US soil. As history shows, a decade of your life can go by …
If you completely ignore shadow inventory and simply look at prices, inventory and fundamentals I think you are better off.
February 27, 2012 at 7:36 AM in reply to: Fantastic article explaining what’s REALLY happening: #738777Participant[quote=walterwhite]on the bright side, this would give us an opportunity to engage in another series of wars to brng democracy to Europe.[/quote]
You can count on scaredy to “always look on the bright side of lfe”
ParticipantHadn;t noticed the gas price thing.
Thanks Nissan LeafParticipant[quote=CA renter][quote=latenightsd]@CA Renter: I share your sentiment, but is that really true for the majority of educated, middle class folks buying home in recent years?[/quote]
Yes, unfortunately. From everything I’ve seen and heard, the vast majority of people — irrespective of their income levels and education — spend way more than they should and don’t put much money (if any!) toward savings other than retirement and perhaps some college savings. IMHO, that’s still not conservative enough, as other expenses always arise that will quickly chip away at any discretionary category (water heaters, new cars, new roof, etc.).[/quote]
Another way to protect yourself is to buy your house at a price level and area that rent out at a small profit if you ran into problems later.
This way, if you get transferred, have a career change, beomce ill or otherwise lose income, you can go rent a 1 Bedroom flat and rent out your house. Of course, you will still need a reasonable cash cushion. Just one more factor to consider.ParticipantYou can buy REITS in an IRA.
But, there has already been a big run-up in REITs, particularly apartment REITS.
An example is REZ (a REIT ETF).
This bottomed in 1Q 2009 and has nearly tripled since then. I happened to have purchased somewhat later (Nov 09) and it has run up almost 60% since that point.
I think the easy money has already been made in apartment REITS for this cycle. Don’t know about commercial REITS, but they’ve had a signifcant run since the bottom as well.
ParticipantDon’t worry Tsunami V5.0 is coming this year.
Participant[quote=pri_dk]
One day things will just be “normal” again, probably long after many have stopped paying attention.
[/quote]
The operative words here are “one day” because that’s exactly how long it will last. If you look at CA real estate cycles, we tend to spend more time in the extremes than around the averages or normal values for any of the metrics.
So, most likely we will cross through normal one day on our way back up to an overheated market.
January 23, 2012 at 9:06 AM in reply to: Primary residence becoming rental – impact on existing mortgage interest rate #736608ParticipantGenerally speaking your loan terms are defined when the deal closes. Your rate is your rate.
It won;t change (unless it specifically says it will change, e.g. if it is a variable rate loan).How long have you had this loan ?
Do the terms of your loan require you to notify the lender as to a change in the status of use of the property ? (I doubt it).
January 17, 2012 at 10:19 AM in reply to: OT- CONTEST!!! Guess public sector household earnings #736106Participant[quote=Jacarandoso]253,597.14[/quote]
You just missed it, Jac
January 17, 2012 at 10:15 AM in reply to: OT- CONTEST!!! Guess public sector household earnings #736103Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan]$ 253,897.13[/quote]
You guys must have missed this stuck in the middle of the Wall street versus public servant discussions.
January 17, 2012 at 10:14 AM in reply to: OT- CONTEST!!! Guess public sector household earnings #736033Participant$ 253,897.13
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