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Fearful
ParticipantOne criteria to me was: If you do not have to work, that is, if you can live on risk-free interest without spending the principal. It was a bit of a slap to realize that real returns, let alone after tax real returns, are currently negative. So much for that theory.
ParticipantOne criteria to me was: If you do not have to work, that is, if you can live on risk-free interest without spending the principal. It was a bit of a slap to realize that real returns, let alone after tax real returns, are currently negative. So much for that theory.
ParticipantVery well put.
The case-shiller charts support your contention that the plankton theory did not hold during the early 90’s bubble. The thirds move pretty much together.
In the current bubble, the thirds diverged considerably. Bottom third rose much faster, and is now falling much faster, with a slight tendency to fall earlier than the upper third. I would not be surprised to see the bottom third line actually cross the top third line on its way down. At the peak, the bottom third was 70 points higher than the top third; they are now only 20 points apart.
Bottom third still has to drop by 48% nominal to get back to 1997 nadir (in real terms) in 2012. There are a lot of plankton yet to die off.
ParticipantVery well put.
The case-shiller charts support your contention that the plankton theory did not hold during the early 90’s bubble. The thirds move pretty much together.
In the current bubble, the thirds diverged considerably. Bottom third rose much faster, and is now falling much faster, with a slight tendency to fall earlier than the upper third. I would not be surprised to see the bottom third line actually cross the top third line on its way down. At the peak, the bottom third was 70 points higher than the top third; they are now only 20 points apart.
Bottom third still has to drop by 48% nominal to get back to 1997 nadir (in real terms) in 2012. There are a lot of plankton yet to die off.
ParticipantVery well put.
The case-shiller charts support your contention that the plankton theory did not hold during the early 90’s bubble. The thirds move pretty much together.
In the current bubble, the thirds diverged considerably. Bottom third rose much faster, and is now falling much faster, with a slight tendency to fall earlier than the upper third. I would not be surprised to see the bottom third line actually cross the top third line on its way down. At the peak, the bottom third was 70 points higher than the top third; they are now only 20 points apart.
Bottom third still has to drop by 48% nominal to get back to 1997 nadir (in real terms) in 2012. There are a lot of plankton yet to die off.
ParticipantVery well put.
The case-shiller charts support your contention that the plankton theory did not hold during the early 90’s bubble. The thirds move pretty much together.
In the current bubble, the thirds diverged considerably. Bottom third rose much faster, and is now falling much faster, with a slight tendency to fall earlier than the upper third. I would not be surprised to see the bottom third line actually cross the top third line on its way down. At the peak, the bottom third was 70 points higher than the top third; they are now only 20 points apart.
Bottom third still has to drop by 48% nominal to get back to 1997 nadir (in real terms) in 2012. There are a lot of plankton yet to die off.
ParticipantVery well put.
The case-shiller charts support your contention that the plankton theory did not hold during the early 90’s bubble. The thirds move pretty much together.
In the current bubble, the thirds diverged considerably. Bottom third rose much faster, and is now falling much faster, with a slight tendency to fall earlier than the upper third. I would not be surprised to see the bottom third line actually cross the top third line on its way down. At the peak, the bottom third was 70 points higher than the top third; they are now only 20 points apart.
Bottom third still has to drop by 48% nominal to get back to 1997 nadir (in real terms) in 2012. There are a lot of plankton yet to die off.
ParticipantAsians not happier anymore, no? Shanghai stock market tanking … maybe Taiwan? HK? Not Japanese, that’s for sure!
Devaluing dollar definitely makes U.S. houses cheaper for foreigners, but only depending on the currency they are coming from, and how conditions are back home.
I’m really curious where Chinese, at least mainland Chinese, are getting their money from. It’s not like the mainland was exactly minting millionaires, now was it?
ParticipantAsians not happier anymore, no? Shanghai stock market tanking … maybe Taiwan? HK? Not Japanese, that’s for sure!
Devaluing dollar definitely makes U.S. houses cheaper for foreigners, but only depending on the currency they are coming from, and how conditions are back home.
I’m really curious where Chinese, at least mainland Chinese, are getting their money from. It’s not like the mainland was exactly minting millionaires, now was it?
ParticipantAsians not happier anymore, no? Shanghai stock market tanking … maybe Taiwan? HK? Not Japanese, that’s for sure!
Devaluing dollar definitely makes U.S. houses cheaper for foreigners, but only depending on the currency they are coming from, and how conditions are back home.
I’m really curious where Chinese, at least mainland Chinese, are getting their money from. It’s not like the mainland was exactly minting millionaires, now was it?
ParticipantAsians not happier anymore, no? Shanghai stock market tanking … maybe Taiwan? HK? Not Japanese, that’s for sure!
Devaluing dollar definitely makes U.S. houses cheaper for foreigners, but only depending on the currency they are coming from, and how conditions are back home.
I’m really curious where Chinese, at least mainland Chinese, are getting their money from. It’s not like the mainland was exactly minting millionaires, now was it?
ParticipantAsians not happier anymore, no? Shanghai stock market tanking … maybe Taiwan? HK? Not Japanese, that’s for sure!
Devaluing dollar definitely makes U.S. houses cheaper for foreigners, but only depending on the currency they are coming from, and how conditions are back home.
I’m really curious where Chinese, at least mainland Chinese, are getting their money from. It’s not like the mainland was exactly minting millionaires, now was it?
April 22, 2008 at 12:45 PM in reply to: California foreclosure “surge”: Up 327% from ’07 levels #192518ParticipantThe 1Q08 run rate for California foreclosures is three times the prior bubble – crash peak, in 1996.
April 22, 2008 at 12:45 PM in reply to: California foreclosure “surge”: Up 327% from ’07 levels #192536ParticipantThe 1Q08 run rate for California foreclosures is three times the prior bubble – crash peak, in 1996.
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