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December 9, 2007 at 8:22 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112788December 9, 2007 at 7:58 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112571
farbet
ParticipantOblivious Group or Cognizant Group??
I presume everyone here belongs to Group 2December 9, 2007 at 7:58 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112685ParticipantOblivious Group or Cognizant Group??
I presume everyone here belongs to Group 2December 9, 2007 at 7:58 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112725ParticipantOblivious Group or Cognizant Group??
I presume everyone here belongs to Group 2December 9, 2007 at 7:58 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112734ParticipantOblivious Group or Cognizant Group??
I presume everyone here belongs to Group 2December 9, 2007 at 7:58 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112768ParticipantOblivious Group or Cognizant Group??
I presume everyone here belongs to Group 2December 9, 2007 at 7:51 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112560ParticipantIn Economics 101 students learn that markets are driven by demand and not supply. The Bush/Paulson plan addresses supply and assuming that the plan gets off the ground it will only address supply at the margin. This is not anyone’s fault. The pill that is required to fix the housing market will have to be swallowed in parts over time. The market is not willing to admit at this point how severe the problems are.
Back to demand. The demand for housing is broken up into parts:
1. subprime demand, once estimated to be about 20% of the market, basically no longer exists. They can’t get the financing.
2. The Alt. A group may also want to buy a home, but they can no longer obtain financing.
3. There are a few investors, but they have to have their own sources of financing.
4. That leaves only the prime borrower, defined as someone with the credit history, income, and down payment necessary to get a mortgage that can be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (agency paper in the language of the “biz”).
These people fall into two groups: a) those that are will buy a home at or near current market prices. This is where most of the housing demand is coming from at this point. I call this group the “oblivious” group, because they are oblivious to the current market conditions and just want a home. People have a variety of legitimate reasons for buying a home, but in these times a “romantic” notion of home ownership based on thinking of the early and mid 20th century just may be obsolete.
The second group of prime buyers b) is very cognizant of the market conditions and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the price of homes to fall more. My guess is, this second group of prime buyers is slowly growing larger at the expense of the “oblivious” group.
With all that said the housing market goes no where until demand increases. Demand will not increase until the price of existing homes decreases (forget new homes it is only 15% of the housing market) and the second group of buyers believes that we have hit the bottom. They will not believe that we have hit bottom until the housing inventory number starts to decline. If you will notice there are no comments about interest rates, they are not material.
Implodemeter 12/09/07December 9, 2007 at 7:51 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112677ParticipantIn Economics 101 students learn that markets are driven by demand and not supply. The Bush/Paulson plan addresses supply and assuming that the plan gets off the ground it will only address supply at the margin. This is not anyone’s fault. The pill that is required to fix the housing market will have to be swallowed in parts over time. The market is not willing to admit at this point how severe the problems are.
Back to demand. The demand for housing is broken up into parts:
1. subprime demand, once estimated to be about 20% of the market, basically no longer exists. They can’t get the financing.
2. The Alt. A group may also want to buy a home, but they can no longer obtain financing.
3. There are a few investors, but they have to have their own sources of financing.
4. That leaves only the prime borrower, defined as someone with the credit history, income, and down payment necessary to get a mortgage that can be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (agency paper in the language of the “biz”).
These people fall into two groups: a) those that are will buy a home at or near current market prices. This is where most of the housing demand is coming from at this point. I call this group the “oblivious” group, because they are oblivious to the current market conditions and just want a home. People have a variety of legitimate reasons for buying a home, but in these times a “romantic” notion of home ownership based on thinking of the early and mid 20th century just may be obsolete.
The second group of prime buyers b) is very cognizant of the market conditions and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the price of homes to fall more. My guess is, this second group of prime buyers is slowly growing larger at the expense of the “oblivious” group.
With all that said the housing market goes no where until demand increases. Demand will not increase until the price of existing homes decreases (forget new homes it is only 15% of the housing market) and the second group of buyers believes that we have hit the bottom. They will not believe that we have hit bottom until the housing inventory number starts to decline. If you will notice there are no comments about interest rates, they are not material.
Implodemeter 12/09/07December 9, 2007 at 7:51 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112715ParticipantIn Economics 101 students learn that markets are driven by demand and not supply. The Bush/Paulson plan addresses supply and assuming that the plan gets off the ground it will only address supply at the margin. This is not anyone’s fault. The pill that is required to fix the housing market will have to be swallowed in parts over time. The market is not willing to admit at this point how severe the problems are.
Back to demand. The demand for housing is broken up into parts:
1. subprime demand, once estimated to be about 20% of the market, basically no longer exists. They can’t get the financing.
2. The Alt. A group may also want to buy a home, but they can no longer obtain financing.
3. There are a few investors, but they have to have their own sources of financing.
4. That leaves only the prime borrower, defined as someone with the credit history, income, and down payment necessary to get a mortgage that can be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (agency paper in the language of the “biz”).
These people fall into two groups: a) those that are will buy a home at or near current market prices. This is where most of the housing demand is coming from at this point. I call this group the “oblivious” group, because they are oblivious to the current market conditions and just want a home. People have a variety of legitimate reasons for buying a home, but in these times a “romantic” notion of home ownership based on thinking of the early and mid 20th century just may be obsolete.
The second group of prime buyers b) is very cognizant of the market conditions and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the price of homes to fall more. My guess is, this second group of prime buyers is slowly growing larger at the expense of the “oblivious” group.
With all that said the housing market goes no where until demand increases. Demand will not increase until the price of existing homes decreases (forget new homes it is only 15% of the housing market) and the second group of buyers believes that we have hit the bottom. They will not believe that we have hit bottom until the housing inventory number starts to decline. If you will notice there are no comments about interest rates, they are not material.
Implodemeter 12/09/07December 9, 2007 at 7:51 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112724ParticipantIn Economics 101 students learn that markets are driven by demand and not supply. The Bush/Paulson plan addresses supply and assuming that the plan gets off the ground it will only address supply at the margin. This is not anyone’s fault. The pill that is required to fix the housing market will have to be swallowed in parts over time. The market is not willing to admit at this point how severe the problems are.
Back to demand. The demand for housing is broken up into parts:
1. subprime demand, once estimated to be about 20% of the market, basically no longer exists. They can’t get the financing.
2. The Alt. A group may also want to buy a home, but they can no longer obtain financing.
3. There are a few investors, but they have to have their own sources of financing.
4. That leaves only the prime borrower, defined as someone with the credit history, income, and down payment necessary to get a mortgage that can be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (agency paper in the language of the “biz”).
These people fall into two groups: a) those that are will buy a home at or near current market prices. This is where most of the housing demand is coming from at this point. I call this group the “oblivious” group, because they are oblivious to the current market conditions and just want a home. People have a variety of legitimate reasons for buying a home, but in these times a “romantic” notion of home ownership based on thinking of the early and mid 20th century just may be obsolete.
The second group of prime buyers b) is very cognizant of the market conditions and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the price of homes to fall more. My guess is, this second group of prime buyers is slowly growing larger at the expense of the “oblivious” group.
With all that said the housing market goes no where until demand increases. Demand will not increase until the price of existing homes decreases (forget new homes it is only 15% of the housing market) and the second group of buyers believes that we have hit the bottom. They will not believe that we have hit bottom until the housing inventory number starts to decline. If you will notice there are no comments about interest rates, they are not material.
Implodemeter 12/09/07December 9, 2007 at 7:51 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112758ParticipantIn Economics 101 students learn that markets are driven by demand and not supply. The Bush/Paulson plan addresses supply and assuming that the plan gets off the ground it will only address supply at the margin. This is not anyone’s fault. The pill that is required to fix the housing market will have to be swallowed in parts over time. The market is not willing to admit at this point how severe the problems are.
Back to demand. The demand for housing is broken up into parts:
1. subprime demand, once estimated to be about 20% of the market, basically no longer exists. They can’t get the financing.
2. The Alt. A group may also want to buy a home, but they can no longer obtain financing.
3. There are a few investors, but they have to have their own sources of financing.
4. That leaves only the prime borrower, defined as someone with the credit history, income, and down payment necessary to get a mortgage that can be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (agency paper in the language of the “biz”).
These people fall into two groups: a) those that are will buy a home at or near current market prices. This is where most of the housing demand is coming from at this point. I call this group the “oblivious” group, because they are oblivious to the current market conditions and just want a home. People have a variety of legitimate reasons for buying a home, but in these times a “romantic” notion of home ownership based on thinking of the early and mid 20th century just may be obsolete.
The second group of prime buyers b) is very cognizant of the market conditions and are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the price of homes to fall more. My guess is, this second group of prime buyers is slowly growing larger at the expense of the “oblivious” group.
With all that said the housing market goes no where until demand increases. Demand will not increase until the price of existing homes decreases (forget new homes it is only 15% of the housing market) and the second group of buyers believes that we have hit the bottom. They will not believe that we have hit bottom until the housing inventory number starts to decline. If you will notice there are no comments about interest rates, they are not material.
Implodemeter 12/09/07December 9, 2007 at 7:44 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112540Participantfamous quotes from the press today
“Right now I think it takes a brave soul to buy a home because there’s so much chatter about housing prices dropping,” Toll said
The government-led initiative may “reduce the severity of the decline,” said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut. Still, “if past cycles are a guide, we could have weak or declining markets for five to 10 years,” Shiller said.
It’ll be the biggest housing recession we’ve known,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at New York-based Decision Economics Inc. “Even if we figure this part of it out, we are not through it.”
“At best, it may stop some of the hemorrhaging of the housing market, but it doesn’t necessarily turn things around,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply
December 9, 2007 at 7:44 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112655Participantfamous quotes from the press today
“Right now I think it takes a brave soul to buy a home because there’s so much chatter about housing prices dropping,” Toll said
The government-led initiative may “reduce the severity of the decline,” said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut. Still, “if past cycles are a guide, we could have weak or declining markets for five to 10 years,” Shiller said.
It’ll be the biggest housing recession we’ve known,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at New York-based Decision Economics Inc. “Even if we figure this part of it out, we are not through it.”
“At best, it may stop some of the hemorrhaging of the housing market, but it doesn’t necessarily turn things around,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply
December 9, 2007 at 7:44 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112697Participantfamous quotes from the press today
“Right now I think it takes a brave soul to buy a home because there’s so much chatter about housing prices dropping,” Toll said
The government-led initiative may “reduce the severity of the decline,” said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut. Still, “if past cycles are a guide, we could have weak or declining markets for five to 10 years,” Shiller said.
It’ll be the biggest housing recession we’ve known,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at New York-based Decision Economics Inc. “Even if we figure this part of it out, we are not through it.”
“At best, it may stop some of the hemorrhaging of the housing market, but it doesn’t necessarily turn things around,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply
December 9, 2007 at 7:44 PM in reply to: The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks a #112704Participantfamous quotes from the press today
“Right now I think it takes a brave soul to buy a home because there’s so much chatter about housing prices dropping,” Toll said
The government-led initiative may “reduce the severity of the decline,” said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut. Still, “if past cycles are a guide, we could have weak or declining markets for five to 10 years,” Shiller said.
It’ll be the biggest housing recession we’ve known,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at New York-based Decision Economics Inc. “Even if we figure this part of it out, we are not through it.”
“At best, it may stop some of the hemorrhaging of the housing market, but it doesn’t necessarily turn things around,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply
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