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Ex-SD
ParticipantIf you haven’t watched this yet………..you should. Dr. Thornberg tells it like it is. Data Quick should hire him to report the true status of the housing market. The only thing I disagree with him about is that he believes prices will drop to where they should be to equal the buying power of the consumer………..but that prices will return to where they are today by 2012. I don’t think that’s possible because buying power of the consumer can’t possibly match today’s housing prices for many, many years. However, he did this presentation in November of 2006 and I wonder if he’s changed his predictions now that he sees how this is unfolding in the middle of 2007?
Good find!
ParticipantData Quick can write all the “feel good” articles they wish and the UT can print them every single day………..but it’s not going to change the reality of what is happening to the real estate market in bubble markets around the USA. The crap has hit the fan and now it’s going to be blown everywhere that has overpriced housing. My wife and I were discussing this whole mess last night and she said that she remembered us having many conversations back in 2001 and forward about how long this was going to be allowed to go on before either the housing market collapsed or the regulators would call a halt to the foolishness.
I wonder what Data Quick will be saying a year from now when housing prices drop, another 20% and the following year when it drops another X% and it continues until it finally hits the bottom? And will the UT keep reporting what Data Quick says, undisputed……… despite the fact that their predictions are way off the mark? Time will tell.
ParticipantData Quick can write all the “feel good” articles they wish and the UT can print them every single day………..but it’s not going to change the reality of what is happening to the real estate market in bubble markets around the USA. The crap has hit the fan and now it’s going to be blown everywhere that has overpriced housing. My wife and I were discussing this whole mess last night and she said that she remembered us having many conversations back in 2001 and forward about how long this was going to be allowed to go on before either the housing market collapsed or the regulators would call a halt to the foolishness.
I wonder what Data Quick will be saying a year from now when housing prices drop, another 20% and the following year when it drops another X% and it continues until it finally hits the bottom? And will the UT keep reporting what Data Quick says, undisputed……… despite the fact that their predictions are way off the mark? Time will tell.
ParticipantData Quick can write all the “feel good” articles they wish and the UT can print them every single day………..but it’s not going to change the reality of what is happening to the real estate market in bubble markets around the USA. The crap has hit the fan and now it’s going to be blown everywhere that has overpriced housing. My wife and I were discussing this whole mess last night and she said that she remembered us having many conversations back in 2001 and forward about how long this was going to be allowed to go on before either the housing market collapsed or the regulators would call a halt to the foolishness.
I wonder what Data Quick will be saying a year from now when housing prices drop, another 20% and the following year when it drops another X% and it continues until it finally hits the bottom? And will the UT keep reporting what Data Quick says, undisputed……… despite the fact that their predictions are way off the mark? Time will tell.
Participantnoone posted:
“The problem is that you’re claiming that you have moved out of California. The software knows that is a lie because no one leaves California”.LOL!! We hated to leave. We lived in SD for 30 years. But…….we saw the strong potential for a bubble burst in the housing market and made a hard decision to take our cash & wait out the storm in a much less expensive area. When the bottom reveals itself, we will move back. Until then, we’re patiently watching & waiting.
noone…………….Still LOL!!
Participantnoone posted:
“The problem is that you’re claiming that you have moved out of California. The software knows that is a lie because no one leaves California”.LOL!! We hated to leave. We lived in SD for 30 years. But…….we saw the strong potential for a bubble burst in the housing market and made a hard decision to take our cash & wait out the storm in a much less expensive area. When the bottom reveals itself, we will move back. Until then, we’re patiently watching & waiting.
noone…………….Still LOL!!
Participantnoone posted:
“The problem is that you’re claiming that you have moved out of California. The software knows that is a lie because no one leaves California”.LOL!! We hated to leave. We lived in SD for 30 years. But…….we saw the strong potential for a bubble burst in the housing market and made a hard decision to take our cash & wait out the storm in a much less expensive area. When the bottom reveals itself, we will move back. Until then, we’re patiently watching & waiting.
noone…………….Still LOL!!
ParticipantWe had the same problem when we left in 2005 with four vehicles. We received new drivers license’ within two weeks of leaving and turned in the old ones to the DMV in SC. We notified them that we had moved and registered all four vehicles in SC but each time one of them would come due in CA they would send a renewal notice so we would notify them again but they kept sending delinquency notices. After repeated letters and phone calls, I finally got someone with some sense from the DMV on the phone and the notices stopped. It took over a year to get it straightened out.
What was really interesting was that it took us less than 30 minutes to get new drivers license’, and register four vehicles……….with NO appointment. We just walked in and we live in Greenville, SC which has 500k people in the county. Quite a contrast from the CA DMV.ParticipantWe had the same problem when we left in 2005 with four vehicles. We received new drivers license’ within two weeks of leaving and turned in the old ones to the DMV in SC. We notified them that we had moved and registered all four vehicles in SC but each time one of them would come due in CA they would send a renewal notice so we would notify them again but they kept sending delinquency notices. After repeated letters and phone calls, I finally got someone with some sense from the DMV on the phone and the notices stopped. It took over a year to get it straightened out.
What was really interesting was that it took us less than 30 minutes to get new drivers license’, and register four vehicles……….with NO appointment. We just walked in and we live in Greenville, SC which has 500k people in the county. Quite a contrast from the CA DMV.ParticipantWe had the same problem when we left in 2005 with four vehicles. We received new drivers license’ within two weeks of leaving and turned in the old ones to the DMV in SC. We notified them that we had moved and registered all four vehicles in SC but each time one of them would come due in CA they would send a renewal notice so we would notify them again but they kept sending delinquency notices. After repeated letters and phone calls, I finally got someone with some sense from the DMV on the phone and the notices stopped. It took over a year to get it straightened out.
What was really interesting was that it took us less than 30 minutes to get new drivers license’, and register four vehicles……….with NO appointment. We just walked in and we live in Greenville, SC which has 500k people in the county. Quite a contrast from the CA DMV.ParticipantThe table is a good indicator of one reason why this became such a large problem. San Diego didn’t have as many sub-primes but…..(1) 20% is not a small number (2) The developers way overbuilt the condo market in SD and priced the housing developments at absurd prices. The end result is that there is a huge glut of condos that are sitting empty and a bunch more that speculators bought with the idea of making a ton of money for simply owning them for a couple of years. SFR’s are no better off because many people bought or re-fied with a 2/28 or other horse crap mortgage (sub-prime or not) and there are a ton of them that are just starting to come due. Now they’re caught in real estate hell and many will just hand the property back to the lender, further exacerbating the problem for those who have been paying their mortgage because now, they’re going to have less paper equity in their homes……….a whole lot less.
ParticipantThe table is a good indicator of one reason why this became such a large problem. San Diego didn’t have as many sub-primes but…..(1) 20% is not a small number (2) The developers way overbuilt the condo market in SD and priced the housing developments at absurd prices. The end result is that there is a huge glut of condos that are sitting empty and a bunch more that speculators bought with the idea of making a ton of money for simply owning them for a couple of years. SFR’s are no better off because many people bought or re-fied with a 2/28 or other horse crap mortgage (sub-prime or not) and there are a ton of them that are just starting to come due. Now they’re caught in real estate hell and many will just hand the property back to the lender, further exacerbating the problem for those who have been paying their mortgage because now, they’re going to have less paper equity in their homes……….a whole lot less.
ParticipantThe table is a good indicator of one reason why this became such a large problem. San Diego didn’t have as many sub-primes but…..(1) 20% is not a small number (2) The developers way overbuilt the condo market in SD and priced the housing developments at absurd prices. The end result is that there is a huge glut of condos that are sitting empty and a bunch more that speculators bought with the idea of making a ton of money for simply owning them for a couple of years. SFR’s are no better off because many people bought or re-fied with a 2/28 or other horse crap mortgage (sub-prime or not) and there are a ton of them that are just starting to come due. Now they’re caught in real estate hell and many will just hand the property back to the lender, further exacerbating the problem for those who have been paying their mortgage because now, they’re going to have less paper equity in their homes……….a whole lot less.
ParticipantHouses along the nicer coastal areas will probably drop less (in %) than many of the other areas of SD but they too will drop. I used to live in Leucadia for many years. I just went on Redfin and looked at the map of properties for sale and I notice that there are several homes in Skyloft that were asking $900k+ a year and a half ago…..now around $799k and a couple are long term owners so they have smelled the air and figure that it’s time to cash out. My guess is that the coast properties will drop another 25-30%+ from where they presently are if borrowers will now have to qualify for a mortgage with proven income, rates remain high for jumbo loans and foreclosure sales drive the comps down. It’s a good time to have a lot of cash and not be a homeowner so you can afford to rent and wait for the storms to pass. I would rent for a minimum of three years because I think this whole thing is not going to be over for a minimum of three and as long as five years and when it hits bottom, prices are not going to ramp up quickly again.
Can’t help you on the schools since my kids all finished the local high schools in the Encinitas area a long time ago and I have no idea how much they may have changed.
Good luck and congratulations on being smart enough to cash out while the getting was good. -
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