Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Ex-SD
ParticipantSD Realtor, you are absolutely right.
I did not clarify that I was excluding places where someone would have good access to mass transportation like New York City, Chicago, etc. Only a small percentage of people who work in these major cities commute by car from 75 miles away or further plus sit in stop & go traffic for long periods of time.
What I should have said was that only in CA would large numbers of people who had to travel by car to get to work……..live 75+ miles from their homes and sit in stop & go traffic for long periods of time, just to find a cheaper home.
ParticipantSaw this link on the L.A. Land blog. Very funny and it hits the nail on the head: http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/41738/detail/
ParticipantSaw this link on the L.A. Land blog. Very funny and it hits the nail on the head: http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/41738/detail/
ParticipantSaw this link on the L.A. Land blog. Very funny and it hits the nail on the head: http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/41738/detail/
Participanttemeculaguy: You may be correct about CA houses carrying a premium……….but what I’m trying to figure out is who is going to finance that premium after the bloodbath of mortgage lenders going bankrupt, investors losing money and a gazillion foreclosures hitting the market that will eventually get sold at big discounts? I just think that the financial community is not going to bend over backwards to finance a repeat of what’s happened in the last eight years in CA and with F.Mac and F.Mae holding that $417k limit on conforming mortgages (which I don’t think is going to go up anytime soon)……..it’s going to put a huge squeeze. I was just reading another post about the auction on the Temecula home that was sold yesterday for $327k. (approx. 2600 sq. ft) so prices are going down and I believe that whomever bought that house for $327k will find out within six months that they paid way too much because the prices will get a lot lower. Only in CA will large numbers of people live 75 miles away from where they work to buy a cheaper home.
Anyway…………..that’s my logic……….right or wrong.
Participanttemeculaguy: You may be correct about CA houses carrying a premium……….but what I’m trying to figure out is who is going to finance that premium after the bloodbath of mortgage lenders going bankrupt, investors losing money and a gazillion foreclosures hitting the market that will eventually get sold at big discounts? I just think that the financial community is not going to bend over backwards to finance a repeat of what’s happened in the last eight years in CA and with F.Mac and F.Mae holding that $417k limit on conforming mortgages (which I don’t think is going to go up anytime soon)……..it’s going to put a huge squeeze. I was just reading another post about the auction on the Temecula home that was sold yesterday for $327k. (approx. 2600 sq. ft) so prices are going down and I believe that whomever bought that house for $327k will find out within six months that they paid way too much because the prices will get a lot lower. Only in CA will large numbers of people live 75 miles away from where they work to buy a cheaper home.
Anyway…………..that’s my logic……….right or wrong.
Participanttemeculaguy: You may be correct about CA houses carrying a premium……….but what I’m trying to figure out is who is going to finance that premium after the bloodbath of mortgage lenders going bankrupt, investors losing money and a gazillion foreclosures hitting the market that will eventually get sold at big discounts? I just think that the financial community is not going to bend over backwards to finance a repeat of what’s happened in the last eight years in CA and with F.Mac and F.Mae holding that $417k limit on conforming mortgages (which I don’t think is going to go up anytime soon)……..it’s going to put a huge squeeze. I was just reading another post about the auction on the Temecula home that was sold yesterday for $327k. (approx. 2600 sq. ft) so prices are going down and I believe that whomever bought that house for $327k will find out within six months that they paid way too much because the prices will get a lot lower. Only in CA will large numbers of people live 75 miles away from where they work to buy a cheaper home.
Anyway…………..that’s my logic……….right or wrong.
Participanttemeculaguy: I was referring to 1982-1985 time period when Temecula was starting to look attractive to people who were willing to make the commute to SD and back each day. There were new housing tracts where you could buy those large 3500 + sq. ft. houses from $195k – $225k.
Back in those days, the only people who wanted to live in RB and Penasquitos were senior citizens who liked the hot weather in the summer. I’m not claiming that I have a crystal ball but logic tells me:
* that with all of the big and medium lenders going bankrupt basically because they loaned too much money to people for houses that weren’t worth anywhere near what they got loans for.
*that with thousands of homes already foreclosed on and presently at REO status
*that with a gazillion more ARM’s are going to reset over the next year or so and the foreclosure list will grow much larger than it already is…………..Lenders won’t be loaning any more money to borrowers for houses that are ridiculously overpriced just because they’re in CA. The regulators aren’t going to raise the $417k limit for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and and the investors are already running for the hills all around the world and are no longer going to want any part of packaged up jumbo CDO’s from the USA. This is going to cause a serious problem for anyone who wants to sell or buy their ridiculously overpriced home when that home is compared to anywhere else in the USA. Again, just because the house is in CA isn’t going to mean squat anymore. Now, I will be the first to admit that I could be dead wrong ………………but every time in my 59 years that I have sat down and analyzed financial situations, (once I have all of the facts and variables) I have been able to predict the final outcome long before it comes to fruition. Let’s just say in this case that I won’t be buying any real estate in any of the bubble markets for several years.
BTW: I believe that those 3500 sq. ft. homes in Temecula will be selling for around $250k – $275k by 2012 (f not before). Time will tell.
Participanttemeculaguy: I was referring to 1982-1985 time period when Temecula was starting to look attractive to people who were willing to make the commute to SD and back each day. There were new housing tracts where you could buy those large 3500 + sq. ft. houses from $195k – $225k.
Back in those days, the only people who wanted to live in RB and Penasquitos were senior citizens who liked the hot weather in the summer. I’m not claiming that I have a crystal ball but logic tells me:
* that with all of the big and medium lenders going bankrupt basically because they loaned too much money to people for houses that weren’t worth anywhere near what they got loans for.
*that with thousands of homes already foreclosed on and presently at REO status
*that with a gazillion more ARM’s are going to reset over the next year or so and the foreclosure list will grow much larger than it already is…………..Lenders won’t be loaning any more money to borrowers for houses that are ridiculously overpriced just because they’re in CA. The regulators aren’t going to raise the $417k limit for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and and the investors are already running for the hills all around the world and are no longer going to want any part of packaged up jumbo CDO’s from the USA. This is going to cause a serious problem for anyone who wants to sell or buy their ridiculously overpriced home when that home is compared to anywhere else in the USA. Again, just because the house is in CA isn’t going to mean squat anymore. Now, I will be the first to admit that I could be dead wrong ………………but every time in my 59 years that I have sat down and analyzed financial situations, (once I have all of the facts and variables) I have been able to predict the final outcome long before it comes to fruition. Let’s just say in this case that I won’t be buying any real estate in any of the bubble markets for several years.
BTW: I believe that those 3500 sq. ft. homes in Temecula will be selling for around $250k – $275k by 2012 (f not before). Time will tell.
Participanttemeculaguy: I was referring to 1982-1985 time period when Temecula was starting to look attractive to people who were willing to make the commute to SD and back each day. There were new housing tracts where you could buy those large 3500 + sq. ft. houses from $195k – $225k.
Back in those days, the only people who wanted to live in RB and Penasquitos were senior citizens who liked the hot weather in the summer. I’m not claiming that I have a crystal ball but logic tells me:
* that with all of the big and medium lenders going bankrupt basically because they loaned too much money to people for houses that weren’t worth anywhere near what they got loans for.
*that with thousands of homes already foreclosed on and presently at REO status
*that with a gazillion more ARM’s are going to reset over the next year or so and the foreclosure list will grow much larger than it already is…………..Lenders won’t be loaning any more money to borrowers for houses that are ridiculously overpriced just because they’re in CA. The regulators aren’t going to raise the $417k limit for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and and the investors are already running for the hills all around the world and are no longer going to want any part of packaged up jumbo CDO’s from the USA. This is going to cause a serious problem for anyone who wants to sell or buy their ridiculously overpriced home when that home is compared to anywhere else in the USA. Again, just because the house is in CA isn’t going to mean squat anymore. Now, I will be the first to admit that I could be dead wrong ………………but every time in my 59 years that I have sat down and analyzed financial situations, (once I have all of the facts and variables) I have been able to predict the final outcome long before it comes to fruition. Let’s just say in this case that I won’t be buying any real estate in any of the bubble markets for several years.
BTW: I believe that those 3500 sq. ft. homes in Temecula will be selling for around $250k – $275k by 2012 (f not before). Time will tell.
ParticipantYes, I really believe that prices in that area may drop to that level. You can buy a home like that anywhere in the country except the bubble areas from $250k-$350k, depending on the area and state that you’re talking about. Do you remember when they first started heavily developing Temecula and you could buy a 3700 sq ft. house for $195k? The particular part of San Diego where this house is located is hot and the surface streets are crowded. There’s nothing special about it. I remember when that area started developing when the population broke 1 million in SD County around 1977-1978 and the growing population were looking for cheaper housing. Back then, the cheapest houses in San Diego County were in the south bay, San Marcos and this area up & down the 15 corridor because it was hotter than the coastal areas and there was plenty of empty dirt to build on. Today, there are over 3 million people in SD but that area is still hot and crowded and just because they stuck a 3700 sq. ft home in the middle of it doesn’t make it anything special. I believe (right or wrong) that the lenders who survive are going to move into a very tight policy of only loaning a maximum of “X” on specific types of properties no matter where they are in the USA and I’m not so sure that places like SD will receive any kind of bump-up from “X” because they are in CA like they have been receiving. Remember, this is why the lenders are now closing their doors. If they had enforced a policy like this that was uniform around the USA, this would have never happened. I moved out of SD in early 2005 and I have a 2600 sq. ft. property on 2/3 acre that is well developed. I’m not living in the middle of nowhere……a major city with all the services we had in SD. The price was $250k. As I said, this is common around the USA except in the bubble areas. I just can’t picture the regulators allowing this whole thing to repeat itself again and if I’m correct, median priced homes will be able to be purchased with the median income and larger luxury homes will be priced “X” above and getting a loan on one of those types of homes will require a much larger down payment. I thought all of these crazy prices were a ticking time bomb, waiting to explode and I was correct and now that I’ve been gone for a couple of years, I REALLY realize just how crazy the prices were. I have a lifelong friend in the same town where I now live who bought a $375k home last year. It’s 3700 sq. ft. brick home on a nice golf course in a gated community and it’s a heck of a lot nicer than this home.
ParticipantYes, I really believe that prices in that area may drop to that level. You can buy a home like that anywhere in the country except the bubble areas from $250k-$350k, depending on the area and state that you’re talking about. Do you remember when they first started heavily developing Temecula and you could buy a 3700 sq ft. house for $195k? The particular part of San Diego where this house is located is hot and the surface streets are crowded. There’s nothing special about it. I remember when that area started developing when the population broke 1 million in SD County around 1977-1978 and the growing population were looking for cheaper housing. Back then, the cheapest houses in San Diego County were in the south bay, San Marcos and this area up & down the 15 corridor because it was hotter than the coastal areas and there was plenty of empty dirt to build on. Today, there are over 3 million people in SD but that area is still hot and crowded and just because they stuck a 3700 sq. ft home in the middle of it doesn’t make it anything special. I believe (right or wrong) that the lenders who survive are going to move into a very tight policy of only loaning a maximum of “X” on specific types of properties no matter where they are in the USA and I’m not so sure that places like SD will receive any kind of bump-up from “X” because they are in CA like they have been receiving. Remember, this is why the lenders are now closing their doors. If they had enforced a policy like this that was uniform around the USA, this would have never happened. I moved out of SD in early 2005 and I have a 2600 sq. ft. property on 2/3 acre that is well developed. I’m not living in the middle of nowhere……a major city with all the services we had in SD. The price was $250k. As I said, this is common around the USA except in the bubble areas. I just can’t picture the regulators allowing this whole thing to repeat itself again and if I’m correct, median priced homes will be able to be purchased with the median income and larger luxury homes will be priced “X” above and getting a loan on one of those types of homes will require a much larger down payment. I thought all of these crazy prices were a ticking time bomb, waiting to explode and I was correct and now that I’ve been gone for a couple of years, I REALLY realize just how crazy the prices were. I have a lifelong friend in the same town where I now live who bought a $375k home last year. It’s 3700 sq. ft. brick home on a nice golf course in a gated community and it’s a heck of a lot nicer than this home.
ParticipantYes, I really believe that prices in that area may drop to that level. You can buy a home like that anywhere in the country except the bubble areas from $250k-$350k, depending on the area and state that you’re talking about. Do you remember when they first started heavily developing Temecula and you could buy a 3700 sq ft. house for $195k? The particular part of San Diego where this house is located is hot and the surface streets are crowded. There’s nothing special about it. I remember when that area started developing when the population broke 1 million in SD County around 1977-1978 and the growing population were looking for cheaper housing. Back then, the cheapest houses in San Diego County were in the south bay, San Marcos and this area up & down the 15 corridor because it was hotter than the coastal areas and there was plenty of empty dirt to build on. Today, there are over 3 million people in SD but that area is still hot and crowded and just because they stuck a 3700 sq. ft home in the middle of it doesn’t make it anything special. I believe (right or wrong) that the lenders who survive are going to move into a very tight policy of only loaning a maximum of “X” on specific types of properties no matter where they are in the USA and I’m not so sure that places like SD will receive any kind of bump-up from “X” because they are in CA like they have been receiving. Remember, this is why the lenders are now closing their doors. If they had enforced a policy like this that was uniform around the USA, this would have never happened. I moved out of SD in early 2005 and I have a 2600 sq. ft. property on 2/3 acre that is well developed. I’m not living in the middle of nowhere……a major city with all the services we had in SD. The price was $250k. As I said, this is common around the USA except in the bubble areas. I just can’t picture the regulators allowing this whole thing to repeat itself again and if I’m correct, median priced homes will be able to be purchased with the median income and larger luxury homes will be priced “X” above and getting a loan on one of those types of homes will require a much larger down payment. I thought all of these crazy prices were a ticking time bomb, waiting to explode and I was correct and now that I’ve been gone for a couple of years, I REALLY realize just how crazy the prices were. I have a lifelong friend in the same town where I now live who bought a $375k home last year. It’s 3700 sq. ft. brick home on a nice golf course in a gated community and it’s a heck of a lot nicer than this home.
ParticipantThe lenders know that all properties in San Diego are severely overpriced and they want to stay away from the high-end until they are convinced that they’ve dropped near the bottom. I would bet that the Doctor is going to have to pony up close to a 40% down payment and still pay a high interest rate before he finds a lender because nobody knows just how far the housing market will drop.
-
AuthorPosts
