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Eugene
Participantcan you add graphs that chart the rate of change of the particular areas?
any specific areas you want?
also, (maybe you did this already? or case-shiller did?) apply filters that weed out 95, 90, and 75 percentile data?
What do you mean?
Homes like mine were around 500K in late 2000. They hit a peak of around 950K. Realistically, it is probably somewhere between 825 and 850K today which puts it 70% above its 2000 price and down around 13% from the peak
My model says that a house worth 500K in late 2000 hit a peak of around 1M in 2005-2006 and it’s still worth around 950K. So the issue is really that your 13% decline from the peak is not reflected in statistical data for the area.
It’s not reflected because of transactions like these
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-7798B5DD-8152_Calle_Catalonia_Carlsbad_CA_92009
$1.45m in 10/2005, $1.54m in 11/2007http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-B8C49119-7567_Circulo_Sequoia_Carlsbad_CA_92009
$1.01m in 4/2005, $1.01m in 11/2007http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-AAE222CA-401_Swamis_Ln_Encinitas_CA_92024
$629k in 3/2005, $693k in 11/2007Maybe your specific neighborhood is different, but it seems that some houses in 92024 and 92009 do sell for 2005 prices and above.
There is just too much noise in the data. I dont trust any data points.
Every single data point is suspicious in the same way. If you have lots of points, underlying trends will start to show up behind the noise.
In the chart Normal Heights is lumped with Mission Valley. These two zips have very little in common
Good observation. I’m actually aware of that. I was trying to cover all zip codes of Greater San Diego. For 92108 I only had a total of 11 resale pairs (it’s mostly a condo area) and it didn’t naturally fit with any of its neighbors. Coronado is in a similar situation. It’s different from OB and Point Loma, and it’s too small to estimate its rate of decline with reasonable precision.
Most areas in the chart have at least 40-50 resale pairs in each half-year period, enough to get the rate of decline down to within a few per cent.
ParticipantThe numbers dont seem to pass the sniff test in my area.
What area is that?
BTW the official Case-Shiller change 10/2000 to 10/2007 is +106% low tier, +91% middle tier, +79% high tier.
ParticipantThe numbers dont seem to pass the sniff test in my area.
What area is that?
BTW the official Case-Shiller change 10/2000 to 10/2007 is +106% low tier, +91% middle tier, +79% high tier.
ParticipantThe numbers dont seem to pass the sniff test in my area.
What area is that?
BTW the official Case-Shiller change 10/2000 to 10/2007 is +106% low tier, +91% middle tier, +79% high tier.
ParticipantThe numbers dont seem to pass the sniff test in my area.
What area is that?
BTW the official Case-Shiller change 10/2000 to 10/2007 is +106% low tier, +91% middle tier, +79% high tier.
ParticipantThe numbers dont seem to pass the sniff test in my area.
What area is that?
BTW the official Case-Shiller change 10/2000 to 10/2007 is +106% low tier, +91% middle tier, +79% high tier.
ParticipantThis must have been very time consuming — did you do it all in Excel? I’d love to see how you did it.
No, not in Excel, I’m not *THAT* bored 🙂 Most of the work is done with C++, Excel is used to make final charts and tables.
this verifies the anecdotal data that there are big disparities even within the CS price tiers
Look at my last table (just updated).
ParticipantThis must have been very time consuming — did you do it all in Excel? I’d love to see how you did it.
No, not in Excel, I’m not *THAT* bored 🙂 Most of the work is done with C++, Excel is used to make final charts and tables.
this verifies the anecdotal data that there are big disparities even within the CS price tiers
Look at my last table (just updated).
ParticipantThis must have been very time consuming — did you do it all in Excel? I’d love to see how you did it.
No, not in Excel, I’m not *THAT* bored 🙂 Most of the work is done with C++, Excel is used to make final charts and tables.
this verifies the anecdotal data that there are big disparities even within the CS price tiers
Look at my last table (just updated).
ParticipantThis must have been very time consuming — did you do it all in Excel? I’d love to see how you did it.
No, not in Excel, I’m not *THAT* bored 🙂 Most of the work is done with C++, Excel is used to make final charts and tables.
this verifies the anecdotal data that there are big disparities even within the CS price tiers
Look at my last table (just updated).
ParticipantThis must have been very time consuming — did you do it all in Excel? I’d love to see how you did it.
No, not in Excel, I’m not *THAT* bored 🙂 Most of the work is done with C++, Excel is used to make final charts and tables.
this verifies the anecdotal data that there are big disparities even within the CS price tiers
Look at my last table (just updated).
ParticipantAll right, more numbers and more food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5993|title=all neighborhoods|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=418]
These are the averages for the 2nd half of 2007.
On one hand, a lot of denial and highly overpriced markets all along the coast. Poorer areas are getting hammered.
On the other hand, two areas with the least amount of appreciation since 2000 are Carmel Valley and Scripps Ranch. Chula Vista and National City are still extremely overpriced despite 20% declines.
is there a way to see a bigger graph?
Click on the graph, there should be a link called “original”.
ParticipantAll right, more numbers and more food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5993|title=all neighborhoods|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=418]
These are the averages for the 2nd half of 2007.
On one hand, a lot of denial and highly overpriced markets all along the coast. Poorer areas are getting hammered.
On the other hand, two areas with the least amount of appreciation since 2000 are Carmel Valley and Scripps Ranch. Chula Vista and National City are still extremely overpriced despite 20% declines.
is there a way to see a bigger graph?
Click on the graph, there should be a link called “original”.
ParticipantAll right, more numbers and more food for thought.
[img_assist|nid=5993|title=all neighborhoods|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=418]
These are the averages for the 2nd half of 2007.
On one hand, a lot of denial and highly overpriced markets all along the coast. Poorer areas are getting hammered.
On the other hand, two areas with the least amount of appreciation since 2000 are Carmel Valley and Scripps Ranch. Chula Vista and National City are still extremely overpriced despite 20% declines.
is there a way to see a bigger graph?
Click on the graph, there should be a link called “original”.
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