[equalizer]

[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]After the largest single day upmove in price in history, the rates out to be a helluva lot lower tomorrow, 8 full points in 15 minutes. For those of you who do not trade what happened today is impossible to overexaggerate how big of a move that is, beyond belief. In the old days the daily maximum limit used to be 2 points and was rarely ever hit. 8 points in a year would be a great year trading bonds, 15 minutes is insane.

Lenders might be in shock and may wait to see if that sticks, they did settle down some off the highs.[/quote]

Chris, I’m sure you saw the Bloomberg article (Mon) about the UK Govt gild purchases lowering mortgage rates and how that may give ammo to Feds here to do the same thing. My question, besides how stupid I was not to trade, is why did bond traders not anticipate it even a little bit? I mean it was front and center on website, or do traders ignore musings of lowly reporters?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=af81EoUv7m24&refer=europe

The should be lower, but 10 year was under 2.1% in Dec, but mortgage rates didn’t go below 4.5%, so why should they go lower than Dec rate? Because Fed pumping into Fannie/Freddie?

There will be a tidal wave of refi’s today and the next month. Banks have so much business, they do not need to lower rates all the way down to match requisite T-bond drop. I have seen this over the last few months. As soon as there was a huge drop, refis skyrocketed for a day and then banks jacked up rates for what appeared to be supply/demand issues, not market rates. There will such backlog from underwriters and such that typical 30 day lock periods will expire. Stay with reputable lenders who will anticipate this problem.

[equalizer]

[quote=SD Realtor]Go to yahoo finance dude. It is all over the market right now.

10 year treasury yield is down 47 BASIS POINTS. 20%!! Are you kidding me?

Hope people are not holding any rising rates funds. [/quote]
Come on, you have been foretelling this event for weeks. I hope you made millions on T bond futures today. I’m always wrong, so I made no bet, which of course was also the wrong bet.

[equalizer]

[quote=SD Realtor]Go to yahoo finance dude. It is all over the market right now.

10 year treasury yield is down 47 BASIS POINTS. 20%!! Are you kidding me?

Hope people are not holding any rising rates funds. [/quote]
Come on, you have been foretelling this event for weeks. I hope you made millions on T bond futures today. I’m always wrong, so I made no bet, which of course was also the wrong bet.

[equalizer]

[quote=SD Realtor]Go to yahoo finance dude. It is all over the market right now.

10 year treasury yield is down 47 BASIS POINTS. 20%!! Are you kidding me?

Hope people are not holding any rising rates funds. [/quote]
Come on, you have been foretelling this event for weeks. I hope you made millions on T bond futures today. I’m always wrong, so I made no bet, which of course was also the wrong bet.

[equalizer]

[quote=SD Realtor]Go to yahoo finance dude. It is all over the market right now.

10 year treasury yield is down 47 BASIS POINTS. 20%!! Are you kidding me?

Hope people are not holding any rising rates funds. [/quote]
Come on, you have been foretelling this event for weeks. I hope you made millions on T bond futures today. I’m always wrong, so I made no bet, which of course was also the wrong bet.

[equalizer]

[quote=SD Realtor]Go to yahoo finance dude. It is all over the market right now.

10 year treasury yield is down 47 BASIS POINTS. 20%!! Are you kidding me?

Hope people are not holding any rising rates funds. [/quote]
Come on, you have been foretelling this event for weeks. I hope you made millions on T bond futures today. I’m always wrong, so I made no bet, which of course was also the wrong bet.

[equalizer]

[quote=davelj][quote=SD Realtor]However it’s like okay…given this new playing field how can make some straw out of it. [/quote]

And that’s the bottom line. Sure, it’s cathartic to bitch and moan about things, but it doesn’t really do much good at the “operating level.” At the end of the day you have to adapt to the way the world is, not as you would like it to be.

“Men have in their minds a picture of how the world will be… The world may be many different ways for them but there is one world that will never be and that is the world they dream of.” – Cormac McCarthy’s “Cities of the Plain”
[/quote]
“Some people see things as they are and say why. I dream things that never were and say why not?”
George Bernard Shaw/better known from RFK speeches

“I don’t like cake”
Robespierre

[equalizer]

[quote=davelj][quote=SD Realtor]However it’s like okay…given this new playing field how can make some straw out of it. [/quote]

And that’s the bottom line. Sure, it’s cathartic to bitch and moan about things, but it doesn’t really do much good at the “operating level.” At the end of the day you have to adapt to the way the world is, not as you would like it to be.

“Men have in their minds a picture of how the world will be… The world may be many different ways for them but there is one world that will never be and that is the world they dream of.” – Cormac McCarthy’s “Cities of the Plain”
[/quote]
“Some people see things as they are and say why. I dream things that never were and say why not?”
George Bernard Shaw/better known from RFK speeches

“I don’t like cake”
Robespierre

[equalizer]

[quote=davelj][quote=SD Realtor]However it’s like okay…given this new playing field how can make some straw out of it. [/quote]

And that’s the bottom line. Sure, it’s cathartic to bitch and moan about things, but it doesn’t really do much good at the “operating level.” At the end of the day you have to adapt to the way the world is, not as you would like it to be.

“Men have in their minds a picture of how the world will be… The world may be many different ways for them but there is one world that will never be and that is the world they dream of.” – Cormac McCarthy’s “Cities of the Plain”
[/quote]
“Some people see things as they are and say why. I dream things that never were and say why not?”
George Bernard Shaw/better known from RFK speeches

“I don’t like cake”
Robespierre

[equalizer]

[quote=davelj][quote=SD Realtor]However it’s like okay…given this new playing field how can make some straw out of it. [/quote]

And that’s the bottom line. Sure, it’s cathartic to bitch and moan about things, but it doesn’t really do much good at the “operating level.” At the end of the day you have to adapt to the way the world is, not as you would like it to be.

“Men have in their minds a picture of how the world will be… The world may be many different ways for them but there is one world that will never be and that is the world they dream of.” – Cormac McCarthy’s “Cities of the Plain”
[/quote]
“Some people see things as they are and say why. I dream things that never were and say why not?”
George Bernard Shaw/better known from RFK speeches

“I don’t like cake”
Robespierre

[equalizer]

[quote=davelj][quote=SD Realtor]However it’s like okay…given this new playing field how can make some straw out of it. [/quote]

And that’s the bottom line. Sure, it’s cathartic to bitch and moan about things, but it doesn’t really do much good at the “operating level.” At the end of the day you have to adapt to the way the world is, not as you would like it to be.

“Men have in their minds a picture of how the world will be… The world may be many different ways for them but there is one world that will never be and that is the world they dream of.” – Cormac McCarthy’s “Cities of the Plain”
[/quote]
“Some people see things as they are and say why. I dream things that never were and say why not?”
George Bernard Shaw/better known from RFK speeches

“I don’t like cake”
Robespierre

[equalizer]

[quote=Russell]I apologize sdr, I took it too far. I very quickly broke the ground rule I suggested of focusing on what was being said and not who was saying it.I believe the best I am ever going to do on this thread topic, is agree to disagree.Please note, I did not ask you for an explanation.If I did I apologize for that too. It could be fun to discuss our predictions, or just how amazing the bust has been.
Take care.[/quote]

Maybe sdr did somehow wrong you and if he did he will suffer with nitwit clients. I’m known here as the resident lunatic for some of my seething commentary that is mixed in with iconic satire that is lost on everyone. So I know all about bad company, “Rebel souls. Deserters we are called”.

That being said, your comments without context appear to be ramblings of a ticked off dude. The housing market should have been down 35-60%, but in newer parts of PQ, the housing prices are down only 20-30% and there appear to be less foreclosures than last year. The unemployment rate among college grads is not that high in San Diego and I know many people who can afford home on one salary. With the stock market down 50%, I would think that people would have lost money for down payment, but obviously I am the only person long stocks in America. With massive stimulus directed toward housing/mortgages, I don’t see much chance of prices falling from here without a big uptick in UE. That could happen, but with most jobs here living off federal welfare, I wouldn’t bet on it.

I am much less bearish than I was 5 years ago when we bought a home. There were articles in 2002 on msnbc stating that homes could fall 25% and that scared the heck out of me. Robert Toll was interviewed in 2002 and he stated that land prices follow cycles and that he wasn’t buying land because it was overvalued. He must have thrown caution to the wind with sales skyrocketing everywhere.

[equalizer]

[quote=Russell]I apologize sdr, I took it too far. I very quickly broke the ground rule I suggested of focusing on what was being said and not who was saying it.I believe the best I am ever going to do on this thread topic, is agree to disagree.Please note, I did not ask you for an explanation.If I did I apologize for that too. It could be fun to discuss our predictions, or just how amazing the bust has been.
Take care.[/quote]

Maybe sdr did somehow wrong you and if he did he will suffer with nitwit clients. I’m known here as the resident lunatic for some of my seething commentary that is mixed in with iconic satire that is lost on everyone. So I know all about bad company, “Rebel souls. Deserters we are called”.

That being said, your comments without context appear to be ramblings of a ticked off dude. The housing market should have been down 35-60%, but in newer parts of PQ, the housing prices are down only 20-30% and there appear to be less foreclosures than last year. The unemployment rate among college grads is not that high in San Diego and I know many people who can afford home on one salary. With the stock market down 50%, I would think that people would have lost money for down payment, but obviously I am the only person long stocks in America. With massive stimulus directed toward housing/mortgages, I don’t see much chance of prices falling from here without a big uptick in UE. That could happen, but with most jobs here living off federal welfare, I wouldn’t bet on it.

I am much less bearish than I was 5 years ago when we bought a home. There were articles in 2002 on msnbc stating that homes could fall 25% and that scared the heck out of me. Robert Toll was interviewed in 2002 and he stated that land prices follow cycles and that he wasn’t buying land because it was overvalued. He must have thrown caution to the wind with sales skyrocketing everywhere.

[equalizer]

[quote=Russell]I apologize sdr, I took it too far. I very quickly broke the ground rule I suggested of focusing on what was being said and not who was saying it.I believe the best I am ever going to do on this thread topic, is agree to disagree.Please note, I did not ask you for an explanation.If I did I apologize for that too. It could be fun to discuss our predictions, or just how amazing the bust has been.
Take care.[/quote]

Maybe sdr did somehow wrong you and if he did he will suffer with nitwit clients. I’m known here as the resident lunatic for some of my seething commentary that is mixed in with iconic satire that is lost on everyone. So I know all about bad company, “Rebel souls. Deserters we are called”.

That being said, your comments without context appear to be ramblings of a ticked off dude. The housing market should have been down 35-60%, but in newer parts of PQ, the housing prices are down only 20-30% and there appear to be less foreclosures than last year. The unemployment rate among college grads is not that high in San Diego and I know many people who can afford home on one salary. With the stock market down 50%, I would think that people would have lost money for down payment, but obviously I am the only person long stocks in America. With massive stimulus directed toward housing/mortgages, I don’t see much chance of prices falling from here without a big uptick in UE. That could happen, but with most jobs here living off federal welfare, I wouldn’t bet on it.

I am much less bearish than I was 5 years ago when we bought a home. There were articles in 2002 on msnbc stating that homes could fall 25% and that scared the heck out of me. Robert Toll was interviewed in 2002 and he stated that land prices follow cycles and that he wasn’t buying land because it was overvalued. He must have thrown caution to the wind with sales skyrocketing everywhere.

[equalizer]

[quote=Russell]I apologize sdr, I took it too far. I very quickly broke the ground rule I suggested of focusing on what was being said and not who was saying it.I believe the best I am ever going to do on this thread topic, is agree to disagree.Please note, I did not ask you for an explanation.If I did I apologize for that too. It could be fun to discuss our predictions, or just how amazing the bust has been.
Take care.[/quote]

Maybe sdr did somehow wrong you and if he did he will suffer with nitwit clients. I’m known here as the resident lunatic for some of my seething commentary that is mixed in with iconic satire that is lost on everyone. So I know all about bad company, “Rebel souls. Deserters we are called”.

That being said, your comments without context appear to be ramblings of a ticked off dude. The housing market should have been down 35-60%, but in newer parts of PQ, the housing prices are down only 20-30% and there appear to be less foreclosures than last year. The unemployment rate among college grads is not that high in San Diego and I know many people who can afford home on one salary. With the stock market down 50%, I would think that people would have lost money for down payment, but obviously I am the only person long stocks in America. With massive stimulus directed toward housing/mortgages, I don’t see much chance of prices falling from here without a big uptick in UE. That could happen, but with most jobs here living off federal welfare, I wouldn’t bet on it.

I am much less bearish than I was 5 years ago when we bought a home. There were articles in 2002 on msnbc stating that homes could fall 25% and that scared the heck out of me. Robert Toll was interviewed in 2002 and he stated that land prices follow cycles and that he wasn’t buying land because it was overvalued. He must have thrown caution to the wind with sales skyrocketing everywhere.

[Author]

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