Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
equalizer
ParticipantJohn P. Hussman of the Hussman Funds also has weekly economic commentary. Like Grantham, he has deep respect for financial history, bubbles, fair value, etc. His two funds are hedged and have good returns with low risks.
Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980’s, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade.“Banks Pass Stress Test – Regulators Fail Ethics Test” by John P. Hussman, Ph.D. May 11, 2009
“Even if we have observed the ultimate lows of this downturn (which I would not take as given), it does not follow that the decline we’ve observed over the past 18 months will be progressively recovered without a great deal of intervening difficulty. The S&P 500 has retraced just over 25% of its bear market loss. The 904 level on the S&P 500 was a 25% retracement, and 977 would be a 1/3 retracement, which is not unreasonable. Aside from such retracements, the idea of a “V-shaped” recovery in the market is strongly odds with “post-crash” market behavior, which generally features a long and drawn-out flat period for years afterward. Given the enormous overhang of Alt-A and option-ARM resets scheduled to begin later this year, extending into 2012, such a profile would not be surprising in the present case.
To put the current downturn into similar context, the chart below overlays several historical crashes, with the time scale measured in months. The downturns include the Great Depression (purple), the Japanese Nikkei index which peaked in 1989 (blue), the gold market which peaked in 1980 (green), and the S&P 500 which peaked in 2007 (red).
…”ParticipantJohn P. Hussman of the Hussman Funds also has weekly economic commentary. Like Grantham, he has deep respect for financial history, bubbles, fair value, etc. His two funds are hedged and have good returns with low risks.
Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980’s, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade.“Banks Pass Stress Test – Regulators Fail Ethics Test” by John P. Hussman, Ph.D. May 11, 2009
“Even if we have observed the ultimate lows of this downturn (which I would not take as given), it does not follow that the decline we’ve observed over the past 18 months will be progressively recovered without a great deal of intervening difficulty. The S&P 500 has retraced just over 25% of its bear market loss. The 904 level on the S&P 500 was a 25% retracement, and 977 would be a 1/3 retracement, which is not unreasonable. Aside from such retracements, the idea of a “V-shaped” recovery in the market is strongly odds with “post-crash” market behavior, which generally features a long and drawn-out flat period for years afterward. Given the enormous overhang of Alt-A and option-ARM resets scheduled to begin later this year, extending into 2012, such a profile would not be surprising in the present case.
To put the current downturn into similar context, the chart below overlays several historical crashes, with the time scale measured in months. The downturns include the Great Depression (purple), the Japanese Nikkei index which peaked in 1989 (blue), the gold market which peaked in 1980 (green), and the S&P 500 which peaked in 2007 (red).
…”ParticipantJohn P. Hussman of the Hussman Funds also has weekly economic commentary. Like Grantham, he has deep respect for financial history, bubbles, fair value, etc. His two funds are hedged and have good returns with low risks.
Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980’s, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade.“Banks Pass Stress Test – Regulators Fail Ethics Test” by John P. Hussman, Ph.D. May 11, 2009
“Even if we have observed the ultimate lows of this downturn (which I would not take as given), it does not follow that the decline we’ve observed over the past 18 months will be progressively recovered without a great deal of intervening difficulty. The S&P 500 has retraced just over 25% of its bear market loss. The 904 level on the S&P 500 was a 25% retracement, and 977 would be a 1/3 retracement, which is not unreasonable. Aside from such retracements, the idea of a “V-shaped” recovery in the market is strongly odds with “post-crash” market behavior, which generally features a long and drawn-out flat period for years afterward. Given the enormous overhang of Alt-A and option-ARM resets scheduled to begin later this year, extending into 2012, such a profile would not be surprising in the present case.
To put the current downturn into similar context, the chart below overlays several historical crashes, with the time scale measured in months. The downturns include the Great Depression (purple), the Japanese Nikkei index which peaked in 1989 (blue), the gold market which peaked in 1980 (green), and the S&P 500 which peaked in 2007 (red).
…”ParticipantJohn P. Hussman of the Hussman Funds also has weekly economic commentary. Like Grantham, he has deep respect for financial history, bubbles, fair value, etc. His two funds are hedged and have good returns with low risks.
Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980’s, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade.“Banks Pass Stress Test – Regulators Fail Ethics Test” by John P. Hussman, Ph.D. May 11, 2009
“Even if we have observed the ultimate lows of this downturn (which I would not take as given), it does not follow that the decline we’ve observed over the past 18 months will be progressively recovered without a great deal of intervening difficulty. The S&P 500 has retraced just over 25% of its bear market loss. The 904 level on the S&P 500 was a 25% retracement, and 977 would be a 1/3 retracement, which is not unreasonable. Aside from such retracements, the idea of a “V-shaped” recovery in the market is strongly odds with “post-crash” market behavior, which generally features a long and drawn-out flat period for years afterward. Given the enormous overhang of Alt-A and option-ARM resets scheduled to begin later this year, extending into 2012, such a profile would not be surprising in the present case.
To put the current downturn into similar context, the chart below overlays several historical crashes, with the time scale measured in months. The downturns include the Great Depression (purple), the Japanese Nikkei index which peaked in 1989 (blue), the gold market which peaked in 1980 (green), and the S&P 500 which peaked in 2007 (red).
…”ParticipantJohn P. Hussman of the Hussman Funds also has weekly economic commentary. Like Grantham, he has deep respect for financial history, bubbles, fair value, etc. His two funds are hedged and have good returns with low risks.
Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980’s, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade.“Banks Pass Stress Test – Regulators Fail Ethics Test” by John P. Hussman, Ph.D. May 11, 2009
“Even if we have observed the ultimate lows of this downturn (which I would not take as given), it does not follow that the decline we’ve observed over the past 18 months will be progressively recovered without a great deal of intervening difficulty. The S&P 500 has retraced just over 25% of its bear market loss. The 904 level on the S&P 500 was a 25% retracement, and 977 would be a 1/3 retracement, which is not unreasonable. Aside from such retracements, the idea of a “V-shaped” recovery in the market is strongly odds with “post-crash” market behavior, which generally features a long and drawn-out flat period for years afterward. Given the enormous overhang of Alt-A and option-ARM resets scheduled to begin later this year, extending into 2012, such a profile would not be surprising in the present case.
To put the current downturn into similar context, the chart below overlays several historical crashes, with the time scale measured in months. The downturns include the Great Depression (purple), the Japanese Nikkei index which peaked in 1989 (blue), the gold market which peaked in 1980 (green), and the S&P 500 which peaked in 2007 (red).
…”Participant[quote=ocrenter]cable and satellite services are a huge scam. you can now get crystal clear HDTV right off your antenna. yet with all of these services, you got to pay extra for the HD.
as for just TV habits in general. is there REALLY a need for 200 channels into each household? I find myself barely getting in 30min to an hour of TV if at that. [/quote]
Using the DB4 antenna at 3ft mount in north San Diego, I am getting KCAL 9.1(LA 9) , KCET(LA PBS 4 channels 28.1-4), KTLA (LA 5.1), KCBS (LA 2.1), KNBC(LA 4.1-3), KOCE(Orange Co PBS 50.1-3), KLCS-TV(LA school PBS kids channel 58.1-4), KPXN-DT (San Bernardino ION channels (30.1-4), KAZA-TV TV (LA spanish). So you can get some LA sports that are blocked by cable and satellite. HA!
Just use Rich’s link for Amazon and type in DB4.
Participant[quote=ocrenter]cable and satellite services are a huge scam. you can now get crystal clear HDTV right off your antenna. yet with all of these services, you got to pay extra for the HD.
as for just TV habits in general. is there REALLY a need for 200 channels into each household? I find myself barely getting in 30min to an hour of TV if at that. [/quote]
Using the DB4 antenna at 3ft mount in north San Diego, I am getting KCAL 9.1(LA 9) , KCET(LA PBS 4 channels 28.1-4), KTLA (LA 5.1), KCBS (LA 2.1), KNBC(LA 4.1-3), KOCE(Orange Co PBS 50.1-3), KLCS-TV(LA school PBS kids channel 58.1-4), KPXN-DT (San Bernardino ION channels (30.1-4), KAZA-TV TV (LA spanish). So you can get some LA sports that are blocked by cable and satellite. HA!
Just use Rich’s link for Amazon and type in DB4.
Participant[quote=ocrenter]cable and satellite services are a huge scam. you can now get crystal clear HDTV right off your antenna. yet with all of these services, you got to pay extra for the HD.
as for just TV habits in general. is there REALLY a need for 200 channels into each household? I find myself barely getting in 30min to an hour of TV if at that. [/quote]
Using the DB4 antenna at 3ft mount in north San Diego, I am getting KCAL 9.1(LA 9) , KCET(LA PBS 4 channels 28.1-4), KTLA (LA 5.1), KCBS (LA 2.1), KNBC(LA 4.1-3), KOCE(Orange Co PBS 50.1-3), KLCS-TV(LA school PBS kids channel 58.1-4), KPXN-DT (San Bernardino ION channels (30.1-4), KAZA-TV TV (LA spanish). So you can get some LA sports that are blocked by cable and satellite. HA!
Just use Rich’s link for Amazon and type in DB4.
Participant[quote=ocrenter]cable and satellite services are a huge scam. you can now get crystal clear HDTV right off your antenna. yet with all of these services, you got to pay extra for the HD.
as for just TV habits in general. is there REALLY a need for 200 channels into each household? I find myself barely getting in 30min to an hour of TV if at that. [/quote]
Using the DB4 antenna at 3ft mount in north San Diego, I am getting KCAL 9.1(LA 9) , KCET(LA PBS 4 channels 28.1-4), KTLA (LA 5.1), KCBS (LA 2.1), KNBC(LA 4.1-3), KOCE(Orange Co PBS 50.1-3), KLCS-TV(LA school PBS kids channel 58.1-4), KPXN-DT (San Bernardino ION channels (30.1-4), KAZA-TV TV (LA spanish). So you can get some LA sports that are blocked by cable and satellite. HA!
Just use Rich’s link for Amazon and type in DB4.
Participant[quote=ocrenter]cable and satellite services are a huge scam. you can now get crystal clear HDTV right off your antenna. yet with all of these services, you got to pay extra for the HD.
as for just TV habits in general. is there REALLY a need for 200 channels into each household? I find myself barely getting in 30min to an hour of TV if at that. [/quote]
Using the DB4 antenna at 3ft mount in north San Diego, I am getting KCAL 9.1(LA 9) , KCET(LA PBS 4 channels 28.1-4), KTLA (LA 5.1), KCBS (LA 2.1), KNBC(LA 4.1-3), KOCE(Orange Co PBS 50.1-3), KLCS-TV(LA school PBS kids channel 58.1-4), KPXN-DT (San Bernardino ION channels (30.1-4), KAZA-TV TV (LA spanish). So you can get some LA sports that are blocked by cable and satellite. HA!
Just use Rich’s link for Amazon and type in DB4.
Participant[quote=flu]Stanley Steamers….
Also, if you plan on doing this a lot…Consider buying a Rug Doctor professional carpet cleaner machine at costco….It’s more hygenic if it’s your own.
If you’re carpets don’t get as filthy frequently, the Bissel carpet machine works ok and costs considerably less.
I don’t like to get my carpets professionally cleaned because I have a slight excessive compulsive behavior when it comes to hygiene.
[/quote]
I can top that story; compulsive is someone I know who is renting an old 1 bedroom place who bought the same machine!Participant[quote=flu]Stanley Steamers….
Also, if you plan on doing this a lot…Consider buying a Rug Doctor professional carpet cleaner machine at costco….It’s more hygenic if it’s your own.
If you’re carpets don’t get as filthy frequently, the Bissel carpet machine works ok and costs considerably less.
I don’t like to get my carpets professionally cleaned because I have a slight excessive compulsive behavior when it comes to hygiene.
[/quote]
I can top that story; compulsive is someone I know who is renting an old 1 bedroom place who bought the same machine!Participant[quote=flu]Stanley Steamers….
Also, if you plan on doing this a lot…Consider buying a Rug Doctor professional carpet cleaner machine at costco….It’s more hygenic if it’s your own.
If you’re carpets don’t get as filthy frequently, the Bissel carpet machine works ok and costs considerably less.
I don’t like to get my carpets professionally cleaned because I have a slight excessive compulsive behavior when it comes to hygiene.
[/quote]
I can top that story; compulsive is someone I know who is renting an old 1 bedroom place who bought the same machine!Participant[quote=flu]Stanley Steamers….
Also, if you plan on doing this a lot…Consider buying a Rug Doctor professional carpet cleaner machine at costco….It’s more hygenic if it’s your own.
If you’re carpets don’t get as filthy frequently, the Bissel carpet machine works ok and costs considerably less.
I don’t like to get my carpets professionally cleaned because I have a slight excessive compulsive behavior when it comes to hygiene.
[/quote]
I can top that story; compulsive is someone I know who is renting an old 1 bedroom place who bought the same machine! -
AuthorPosts