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ParticipantHere is happier spin on data from Barron’s Gene Epstein June 9 (it’s less rosy than typical from Mr Optimistic):
“Take the recent 3.9% reading on year-over-year consumer price index inflation, add May’s 5.5% jobless rate, and you get a misery index of 9.4%. While far below the peak — which topped 21% in mid-1980 — the MI can be regarded as a harbinger of the economic outlook over the next year or two.
That outlook is for stagflation: inflation combined with slow or stagnant growth and rising unemployment.
There is still some question whether those in charge of these matters will ever see fit to declare that the economy is in recession. But given the stubborn rise in food and energy prices, inflation is likely to persist, squeezing incomes. And with credit still scarce, growth in gross domestic product should crawl along at an annual rate of 1%-2% at best. With growth not fast enough for the increase in jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force, the jobless rate will keep rising. So will the index of misery.
But while all that is miserable enough, the biggest jump in the unemployment rate in a quarter-century is still far less alarming than it might seem.
The employment report for May, released Friday morning, indicated that joblessness had risen to 5.5% from 5% in April. But more than half the increase was concentrated among 16-to-24-year-olds. Unemployment among workers 25 and older, sometimes referred to as the “prime-age” labor force, rose by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 4.1% from 3.9%. And while that is hardly good news, it’s by no means a record — and about what you’d expect under the slow-growth conditions of the past year.”
ParticipantHere is happier spin on data from Barron’s Gene Epstein June 9 (it’s less rosy than typical from Mr Optimistic):
“Take the recent 3.9% reading on year-over-year consumer price index inflation, add May’s 5.5% jobless rate, and you get a misery index of 9.4%. While far below the peak — which topped 21% in mid-1980 — the MI can be regarded as a harbinger of the economic outlook over the next year or two.
That outlook is for stagflation: inflation combined with slow or stagnant growth and rising unemployment.
There is still some question whether those in charge of these matters will ever see fit to declare that the economy is in recession. But given the stubborn rise in food and energy prices, inflation is likely to persist, squeezing incomes. And with credit still scarce, growth in gross domestic product should crawl along at an annual rate of 1%-2% at best. With growth not fast enough for the increase in jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force, the jobless rate will keep rising. So will the index of misery.
But while all that is miserable enough, the biggest jump in the unemployment rate in a quarter-century is still far less alarming than it might seem.
The employment report for May, released Friday morning, indicated that joblessness had risen to 5.5% from 5% in April. But more than half the increase was concentrated among 16-to-24-year-olds. Unemployment among workers 25 and older, sometimes referred to as the “prime-age” labor force, rose by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 4.1% from 3.9%. And while that is hardly good news, it’s by no means a record — and about what you’d expect under the slow-growth conditions of the past year.”
ParticipantHere is happier spin on data from Barron’s Gene Epstein June 9 (it’s less rosy than typical from Mr Optimistic):
“Take the recent 3.9% reading on year-over-year consumer price index inflation, add May’s 5.5% jobless rate, and you get a misery index of 9.4%. While far below the peak — which topped 21% in mid-1980 — the MI can be regarded as a harbinger of the economic outlook over the next year or two.
That outlook is for stagflation: inflation combined with slow or stagnant growth and rising unemployment.
There is still some question whether those in charge of these matters will ever see fit to declare that the economy is in recession. But given the stubborn rise in food and energy prices, inflation is likely to persist, squeezing incomes. And with credit still scarce, growth in gross domestic product should crawl along at an annual rate of 1%-2% at best. With growth not fast enough for the increase in jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force, the jobless rate will keep rising. So will the index of misery.
But while all that is miserable enough, the biggest jump in the unemployment rate in a quarter-century is still far less alarming than it might seem.
The employment report for May, released Friday morning, indicated that joblessness had risen to 5.5% from 5% in April. But more than half the increase was concentrated among 16-to-24-year-olds. Unemployment among workers 25 and older, sometimes referred to as the “prime-age” labor force, rose by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 4.1% from 3.9%. And while that is hardly good news, it’s by no means a record — and about what you’d expect under the slow-growth conditions of the past year.”
ParticipantHere is happier spin on data from Barron’s Gene Epstein June 9 (it’s less rosy than typical from Mr Optimistic):
“Take the recent 3.9% reading on year-over-year consumer price index inflation, add May’s 5.5% jobless rate, and you get a misery index of 9.4%. While far below the peak — which topped 21% in mid-1980 — the MI can be regarded as a harbinger of the economic outlook over the next year or two.
That outlook is for stagflation: inflation combined with slow or stagnant growth and rising unemployment.
There is still some question whether those in charge of these matters will ever see fit to declare that the economy is in recession. But given the stubborn rise in food and energy prices, inflation is likely to persist, squeezing incomes. And with credit still scarce, growth in gross domestic product should crawl along at an annual rate of 1%-2% at best. With growth not fast enough for the increase in jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force, the jobless rate will keep rising. So will the index of misery.
But while all that is miserable enough, the biggest jump in the unemployment rate in a quarter-century is still far less alarming than it might seem.
The employment report for May, released Friday morning, indicated that joblessness had risen to 5.5% from 5% in April. But more than half the increase was concentrated among 16-to-24-year-olds. Unemployment among workers 25 and older, sometimes referred to as the “prime-age” labor force, rose by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 4.1% from 3.9%. And while that is hardly good news, it’s by no means a record — and about what you’d expect under the slow-growth conditions of the past year.”
ParticipantHere is happier spin on data from Barron’s Gene Epstein June 9 (it’s less rosy than typical from Mr Optimistic):
“Take the recent 3.9% reading on year-over-year consumer price index inflation, add May’s 5.5% jobless rate, and you get a misery index of 9.4%. While far below the peak — which topped 21% in mid-1980 — the MI can be regarded as a harbinger of the economic outlook over the next year or two.
That outlook is for stagflation: inflation combined with slow or stagnant growth and rising unemployment.
There is still some question whether those in charge of these matters will ever see fit to declare that the economy is in recession. But given the stubborn rise in food and energy prices, inflation is likely to persist, squeezing incomes. And with credit still scarce, growth in gross domestic product should crawl along at an annual rate of 1%-2% at best. With growth not fast enough for the increase in jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force, the jobless rate will keep rising. So will the index of misery.
But while all that is miserable enough, the biggest jump in the unemployment rate in a quarter-century is still far less alarming than it might seem.
The employment report for May, released Friday morning, indicated that joblessness had risen to 5.5% from 5% in April. But more than half the increase was concentrated among 16-to-24-year-olds. Unemployment among workers 25 and older, sometimes referred to as the “prime-age” labor force, rose by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 4.1% from 3.9%. And while that is hardly good news, it’s by no means a record — and about what you’d expect under the slow-growth conditions of the past year.”
ParticipantThis is from Gene Epstein, Barrons economic editor who is Mr. Optimistic (I’ve called him pollyannish) free-market guy who says speculation is causing food and energy bubble:
“Much as I hate to agree with any politician who blames the speculator whenever goods get too dear, which usually amounts to shooting the messenger, Homeland Security Committee Chair Joe Lieberman unfortunately had a point when he accused speculators of “artificially inflating the prices of food and fuel futures.
The rules the CFTC should enforce are position limits that specify the maximum number of contracts in a given market that any single speculative entity can hold. These limits, which generally amount to about 2% of all contracts outstanding, are set for a good reason: The commodity markets are too small to absorb an excess of speculative dollars. Even at current inflated prices and a near-record level of trading interest, the total contract value on all domestic commodity exchanges comes to only $960 billion. By way of comparison, even at current depressed prices, the total market capitalization of all domestically traded stocks tops $13 trillion.
History teaches that regulatory commissions often become hostage to the very industry they’re supposed to regulate. In that regard, it’s worth noting that CFTC Commissioner Jill Sommers is a former Head of Government Affairs at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
Say that legislators do ride herd over the CFTC by requiring that it enforce position limits. Even if, as proposed, the rules were phased in slowly, Briese fears an anticipatory collapse in prices that could drive the swaps dealers into bankruptcy. While that would hardly be welcome, the decline in food and energy prices would provide welcome relief to consumers.”
Even he has become cynical, fearing that regulators are beholden to their industry!!
Full story at
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121460970889212409.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_columnsParticipantThis is from Gene Epstein, Barrons economic editor who is Mr. Optimistic (I’ve called him pollyannish) free-market guy who says speculation is causing food and energy bubble:
“Much as I hate to agree with any politician who blames the speculator whenever goods get too dear, which usually amounts to shooting the messenger, Homeland Security Committee Chair Joe Lieberman unfortunately had a point when he accused speculators of “artificially inflating the prices of food and fuel futures.
The rules the CFTC should enforce are position limits that specify the maximum number of contracts in a given market that any single speculative entity can hold. These limits, which generally amount to about 2% of all contracts outstanding, are set for a good reason: The commodity markets are too small to absorb an excess of speculative dollars. Even at current inflated prices and a near-record level of trading interest, the total contract value on all domestic commodity exchanges comes to only $960 billion. By way of comparison, even at current depressed prices, the total market capitalization of all domestically traded stocks tops $13 trillion.
History teaches that regulatory commissions often become hostage to the very industry they’re supposed to regulate. In that regard, it’s worth noting that CFTC Commissioner Jill Sommers is a former Head of Government Affairs at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
Say that legislators do ride herd over the CFTC by requiring that it enforce position limits. Even if, as proposed, the rules were phased in slowly, Briese fears an anticipatory collapse in prices that could drive the swaps dealers into bankruptcy. While that would hardly be welcome, the decline in food and energy prices would provide welcome relief to consumers.”
Even he has become cynical, fearing that regulators are beholden to their industry!!
Full story at
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121460970889212409.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_columnsParticipantThis is from Gene Epstein, Barrons economic editor who is Mr. Optimistic (I’ve called him pollyannish) free-market guy who says speculation is causing food and energy bubble:
“Much as I hate to agree with any politician who blames the speculator whenever goods get too dear, which usually amounts to shooting the messenger, Homeland Security Committee Chair Joe Lieberman unfortunately had a point when he accused speculators of “artificially inflating the prices of food and fuel futures.
The rules the CFTC should enforce are position limits that specify the maximum number of contracts in a given market that any single speculative entity can hold. These limits, which generally amount to about 2% of all contracts outstanding, are set for a good reason: The commodity markets are too small to absorb an excess of speculative dollars. Even at current inflated prices and a near-record level of trading interest, the total contract value on all domestic commodity exchanges comes to only $960 billion. By way of comparison, even at current depressed prices, the total market capitalization of all domestically traded stocks tops $13 trillion.
History teaches that regulatory commissions often become hostage to the very industry they’re supposed to regulate. In that regard, it’s worth noting that CFTC Commissioner Jill Sommers is a former Head of Government Affairs at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
Say that legislators do ride herd over the CFTC by requiring that it enforce position limits. Even if, as proposed, the rules were phased in slowly, Briese fears an anticipatory collapse in prices that could drive the swaps dealers into bankruptcy. While that would hardly be welcome, the decline in food and energy prices would provide welcome relief to consumers.”
Even he has become cynical, fearing that regulators are beholden to their industry!!
Full story at
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121460970889212409.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_columnsParticipantThis is from Gene Epstein, Barrons economic editor who is Mr. Optimistic (I’ve called him pollyannish) free-market guy who says speculation is causing food and energy bubble:
“Much as I hate to agree with any politician who blames the speculator whenever goods get too dear, which usually amounts to shooting the messenger, Homeland Security Committee Chair Joe Lieberman unfortunately had a point when he accused speculators of “artificially inflating the prices of food and fuel futures.
The rules the CFTC should enforce are position limits that specify the maximum number of contracts in a given market that any single speculative entity can hold. These limits, which generally amount to about 2% of all contracts outstanding, are set for a good reason: The commodity markets are too small to absorb an excess of speculative dollars. Even at current inflated prices and a near-record level of trading interest, the total contract value on all domestic commodity exchanges comes to only $960 billion. By way of comparison, even at current depressed prices, the total market capitalization of all domestically traded stocks tops $13 trillion.
History teaches that regulatory commissions often become hostage to the very industry they’re supposed to regulate. In that regard, it’s worth noting that CFTC Commissioner Jill Sommers is a former Head of Government Affairs at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
Say that legislators do ride herd over the CFTC by requiring that it enforce position limits. Even if, as proposed, the rules were phased in slowly, Briese fears an anticipatory collapse in prices that could drive the swaps dealers into bankruptcy. While that would hardly be welcome, the decline in food and energy prices would provide welcome relief to consumers.”
Even he has become cynical, fearing that regulators are beholden to their industry!!
Full story at
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121460970889212409.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_columns -
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