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May 30, 2013 at 11:43 AM in reply to: Which public schools are better: Carmel Valley or La Jolla #762304
earlyretirement
ParticipantHome prices at 4.5 year high.
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/may/29/tp-home-prices-hit-45-year-high/
ParticipantThis one in my development listed and went into escrow in only 2 days. 2 DAYS.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/14422-Caminito-Lazanja-92127/home/6462570
Participant[quote=SD Realtor]
People thinking there will be big price drops are incorrect. Price drops will be due to inaccurately priced homes that were listed to high to begin with. Once the supply normalizes compared to previous years the only major source for depreciation in San Diego will be due to the lending rates. You may see a small depreciation that will accompany the “normalizing” of the market but that is not a trend setter. The larger declines will be only tied to lending. That will be off in the future, but not in the short term.[/quote]
I agree with you SD Realtor that there shouldn’t be HUGE price drops like back during the Great Recession. People have to understand what we had going on was the “perfect storm” of events all happening at the same time. I still kind of laugh when people try to say that what happened the last time was a normal Recession. That isn’t true.
While I do think prices can dip again, I don’t really see a situation like the last time around where prices fell so precipitously. I do agree that once interest rates go up, prices can depreciate but I don’t see it happening so fast and hard like last time.
Most of the people I know that are looking to buy aren’t buying to “flip”. They want to buy a home to live in to raise their families. I do see more and more inventory coming on the market now so that should help slow things down.
I do NOT think it is healthy to see the drastic price increases so quickly. But still, this time around is totally different vs. the last crash.
[quote=CA renter]
You do not need NINJA loans in order to create a bubble, IMO. You just need a lot of speculative activity where a critical mass of buyers are buying with the expectation that they will sell at some future date for a higher price. I also believe that there is a LOT more leverage in the housing market than people think. Just because they aren’t using traditional purchase mortgages does NOT mean that these buyers are un-leveraged.
FWIW, many homes in our area are being listed at **above-peak** prices, and many are selling for those amounts. This is a bubble as far as I’m concerned.[/quote]
Absolutely I totally agree CAR. You don’t need NINJA loans to create a bubble but it sure does help! LOL. I do agree some people are speculating but I still say this go around is MUCH different vs. the last crash. Today’s buyers are at least “qualified” for the most part. This is FAR different vs. the last time.
Absolutely I do agree with you that there is more leverage in the market than people think but still, it’s nothing compared to during the bubble no-doc stated income years.
I do think prices can dip again but I agree with SD Realtor that I don’t see them crashing like last time. I actually wouldn’t mind seeing things take a break and slow down which we should see from the increased inventory numbers now.
Also, a big part of the real estate market going up is simple the “wealth effect” because people feel wealthier from their stock portfolios going back up. Most people I know right now feel really good with their portfolios having fully recovered for the most part. People just feel richer.
The market can’t keep going up at this pace forever. The Fed has done a number to force people into the stock market. Personally, I’ll be ready to short sell the market again if it continues going up the rest of this year I’ll be ready to short-sell the market again by Thanksgiving.
Participant[quote=Cube][quote=earlyretirement]I noticed this came on the market and went into escrow in only 4 DAYS.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7575-Delfina-92127/home/6482881
I don’t think houses were flying that fast even during the bubble here…were they?? I will be really curious to see what this house sold at relative to the asking price.
The same realtor sold this house in my development earlier this year. From the time he listed it to the time he got an offer was only 5 DAYS.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8419-Run-Of-The-Knls-92127/home/6541763%5B/quote%5D
ER, this is not surprising to me at all. We’ve been shopping for the past year or so, and since around late December, good properties have been flying off the market. Two that we offered on saw 7+ offers in the first 48-hours after listing. Both were pending in days without spanning a weekend on the market.
Most decent properties that list on Thursday or Friday are pending by the following Wednesday at the latest. We’re often told offers are being reviewed Sunday or Monday evening. If you tour a recent listing on a Sunday, you might have only until nightfall to get your offer in for consideration.
Lately, if something lasts longer than 7 days, it’s either grossly overpriced, or there’s something seriously wrong with it (though as Jim the Realtor would say, nothing price can’t fix).[/quote]
Oh yeah..I have spoken to others that have been actively looking and they are running into the SAME thing as you Cube.
I agree with the other poster that said however that the word “bubble” is overused. At least this go around it’s not like the true “bubble” years when anyone with a heartbeat could get a no-doc loan.
I can’t say this time around if we’re in a bubble or not as there is so many cash buyers and most buying have steady jobs and higher FICO scores. At least it’s a much healthier situation vs. the last go around.
However, the speed at which the recovery is happening is very surprising. I’m just glad I bought back in 2011. I figured that had to be close to a bottom. And I was a big bear on real estate but it just got to be really compelling how cheap it was back then.
I’ve mentioned on a few message boards that I post on that I was confident that prices in desirable parts of San Diego would surpass peak prices. I just didn’t think it would happen for a decade or so.
I made a few offers last year on properties and even at the start of this year but I wasn’t going to chase the market up. Now, I am just stepping back and seeing how this plays out.
Participant[quote=zzz]Who’s selling to capitalize on the bubble? Or considering listing their home to see what bites?
There are moments I think about putting our house on the market at 200k more than we paid for it- I think we can get it based on recent comps and we’ve done a bit of work on the house since we bought it. But I love my neighborhood, my neighbors and the home, plus where in the heck would we move? It took us years to find this house in the limited zip codes we were looking in. Rents are outrageous. And I became so tired of renting. At one point, I moved 4 times in 4 years. The first move was from a condo to a house. Then the owner wanted to move back in and I had to move out. I ended up moving into a property my SO owned, but was trying to sell. Then we sold that place and rented another house, until we bought the one we’re now in. I’m quite tired of moving!
On the other hand, my parents live out of state and they are getting older, and I’d like to move them out here. One of my parents became seriously ill and I spent a year and a half flying back and forth. It was very straining on my health, my relationship with SO, and on my career. I had to check out on my other aspects of my life to basically take care of my parents.
Im thinking of telling them to sell now while the market is hot as they need to sell within the next 5-7 or so years anyhow due to age/health. But ideally they will live on their own. It will be better for the sanity of all of us. Unfortunately what they would get for their house won’t buy them even a small condo in the metro area unless they buy in the less desirable areas which they won’t do.
Rents are so high, I don’t want to see them pay what little money they have into someone else’s equity bucket. Lets assume they rent a 1 bdrm condo nearby for $1500/month, they will run out of cash from the sale of their home in about 10 years. They would have to buy in cash as they are both retired and have very little in assets.
Ideally, we would take the cash from the sale of their home and I would purchase a property for them to live in but I’m not in a position to take on another mortgage. I spent 10s of thousands helping my parents financially during the illness, and I just started my own business so I’m not going to qualify for a loan anyhow.
Ideas on what to do?[/quote]
Nope. I wouldn’t sell my house even if someone offered to pay more than peak prices. Finally have our house how we want it with all the renovations finally done. Bought near the bottom and love our house.
We’ve received several unsolicited offers directly from potential buyers (without realtors) and we aren’t interested. The thing is even if we got a great offer, where would be go? There isn’t much inventory on the market and we love our house. I don’t plan on selling probably ever.
Even when the kids are out of the house I just plan to rent our house out. I don’t really care what happens with house prices now.
Participant[quote=spdrun]
Spoken like a true bachelor with no kids (I’m assuming.. LOL). Yeah, so if you are a single guy with no kids/family then obviously you wouldn’t want an SUV. But here’s the rub…… When you have 2 kids already and you are planning on having another in the next year and you don’t want a mini-van… you have very few alternatives.
I’m getting a vasectomy after the second little shitting, squealing, pissing pink grub. Even if I have to do it all by my lonesome with a rusty razor blade and an old Singer sewing machine.[/quote]
Ouchie. Yikes, sorry for assuming you didn’t have kids. LOL.
ParticipantI noticed this came on the market and went into escrow in only 4 DAYS.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7575-Delfina-92127/home/6482881
I don’t think houses were flying that fast even during the bubble here…were they?? I will be really curious to see what this house sold at relative to the asking price.
The same realtor sold this house in my development earlier this year. From the time he listed it to the time he got an offer was only 5 DAYS.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8419-Run-Of-The-Knls-92127/home/6541763
Participant[quote=CA renter]The govt doesn’t need warrants, silly-billies!
…
All wiretapping of American citizens by the National Security Agency requires a warrant from a three-judge court set up under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. After the 9/11 attacks, Congress passed the Patriot Act, which granted the President broad powers to fight a war against terrorism. The George W. Bush administration used these powers to bypass the FISA court and directed the NSA to spy directly on al Qaeda in a new NSA electronic surveillance program. Reports at the time indicate that an “apparently accidental” “glitch” resulted in the interception of communications that were purely domestic in nature.[5] This action was challenged by a number of groups, including Congress, as unconstitutional.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSA_warrantless_surveillance_controversy
…..It’s just an “accident” when they tap phone lines of American citizens or residents who might be “domestic terrorists.”[/quote]
Yep. EXACTLY CA Renter…. Man, with this “Patriot Act” the government can get away with anything these days. It’s scary and shocking but really not much we can do.
These government “bureaucrats” in one respect are probably happy after 9/11 which is just horrifying so they could shove things like the Patriot Act in our faces.
ParticipantYes, these things are HORRIBLE but honestly these are probably not new things that haven’t been going on for years. The truth of the matter is that lots of bad stuff goes on in the USA. This isn’t anything new.
MANY more far worse things happen every day that Americans will never hear or know about.
The only difference now is with the advances in technology and the power of the Internet we hear more and more about these things. But honestly, these aren’t new things that are just happening today.
I’d imagine if the typical American knew all the things happening they would be horrified.
Still, the USA is one of the best countries in the world. Really all of these “civilized and free” countries all have similar type stuff that goes on.
I’ve lived in developing countries and the amount of corruption and horrible things would shock you. So really these things aren’t new and nothing compared to some other countries.
For the most part, privacy really doesn’t exist in the USA to the extent that people think it does.
BG, all those measures you do sound good and well but in almost any instant if someone really wanted to find out who you were, they probably could do it pretty easily. Unless you are in some cave not posting on the internet, not talking on the phone, etc. your odds are greatly reduced but I could tell you about some stories that would make your head spin.
I remember in the early days of the internet when there wasn’t much technology like today and even then people could pretty easily find out who you are just from emails or posts on blogs. I had this friend back in the early 2000’s. I’m talking genius type of guy that used to work at NASA. He’d tell me some stories about the government that really would make my head spin.
Participant[quote=spdrun]That’s why overweight SUVs lugging around 5500 lb of pigfat and with 400 hp so a soccer mooooomy can plaster her ill-behaved sprogs to the leather seats by pressing the loud pedal are impractical to own. Yep, the 5500 lb is CURB weight, not GVWR. 1500lb heavier than your average 70s or 80s American land barge. Fail.
Q7? Just call it the Audi Suburban, Canyonero, or Power Wagon. Every time I see one of those things on the road, and think back to when Audi made light, innovative, fun-to-drive cars, I want to burst into tears.[/quote]
Spoken like a true bachelor with no kids (I’m assuming.. LOL). Yeah, so if you are a single guy with no kids/family then obviously you wouldn’t want an SUV. But here’s the rub…… When you have 2 kids already and you are planning on having another in the next year and you don’t want a mini-van… you have very few alternatives.
Also, when we have in-laws come and we also have to have room for them. There are few vehicles out there that I like that are stylish and that is something that we’d like. The Audi Q7 really is perfect for us. Other than the brake shock….really it’s been a GREAT vehicle for our family.
No, it’s NOT the same thing as a suburban. I’ve rented Suburbans before and this is nothing compared to it. Really we don’t regret our decision to buy the Q7 TDI. Was it expensive? Yep. Very, especially considering we got the Premium package with just about everything you can get on the inside.
But it’s very powerful, roomy for us, comfortable and really was the best option for us. I’m not one of those people that change cars often or buy something because it’s a certain brand. For me, it really was the best option for my family. It gets GREAT gas mileage for it’s size/weight and super functional for our family. The third row seating granted isn’t big enough for adults but for our kids it’s plenty of room and will last until they grow up.
We added the trailer hitch that will hold up to 5 bicycles with the removable holder, and there is plenty of room in the back for strollers, etc. We bought one of those roof racks and the great thing with the Audi is you can remove it when you’re not using it. We bought one of those cargo boxes to put on top which holds TONS of stuff. I’m not a road trip type but we did drive it up to Lake Tahoe and it was really great. Handles great in snowy weather as well.
So I take a grain of salt with your comment as I am guessing you probably are a single guy with no kids.
Participant[quote=deadzone]early, I was in Brazil 2004, great exchange rate at that time..
I’ll continue to defend my “prove it” posts. The point is the the so called dangers in Mexico are over-hyped by Media, etc, and all of you are irrationally paranoid because of it. There is no new information that I didn’t already know from the URLs that people provided. Nor did they prove that Baja in particular is a dangerous place for American tourists or expats.
Do you agree that if an American tourist was murdered in Baja that it would make the news? Of course it would. then, why can’t you find a single news story of such an event happening? You guys are the ones saying Baja is such a dangerous place so the responsibility is up to you to prove it. I just showed you a case of an Australian tourist being brutally beaten in San Diego. Can you find even one equivalent case of an American tourist being brutally beaten in Baja?[/quote]
Oh YES! 2004…those were the “glory days” down there. I was down there quite a bit starting in 2002. The exchange rate was really great back then! Things were cheap including real estate. It’s insane now how expensive it has gotten.
I admit that the media can be over-hyped sometimes with many things probably including that. But again, I wouldn’t consider myself in the paranoid camp. I’m not even saying people have a likelihood to get murdered because I agree with you that people aren’t likely to get murdered.
Just a lot of scams like SD Realtor’s friend. Am I saying that these scams weren’t around 10 to 20 years ago? Nope. Not at all. Just like you suggest it was there back then too. But I do think it has gotten worse over the years.
Am I saying Baja is “dangerous”? Nope. But then again “dangerous” is a totally subjective word/term. So you have to keep that in mind. Everyone has their own level of comfort and what they are comfortable with.
Participant[quote=zzz]Forgetting about crime for a second, for those considering living in LATAM, who are not of latin / spanish descent, some things to consider:
1. you are considered a gringo and will be treated as such
– people will assume you have more money than they do, if not consider you rich. you are rich by their standards, even if you are not rich by US standards
– you will get gringo pricing2. things are SLOW there. stuff does not get done efficiently. if you buy a home, prepared to take forever to get work done on your home. things will not make sense to you and if you take your American expectations there, you will be frustrated ALL the time
3. most American friends I know who live there also have private insurance that allows them to come back to US for treatment of major medical issues- like cancer
4. the quality of life – it really depends on what you are used to, which country you pick, and whether you are in a major city. if you have a pretty high standard of living now – its not necessarily cheaper to maintain that standard of living. eating out at nice restaurants or drinking at high end establishments is not that much cheaper. expensive clothing is not cheaper.
pros- you can have things like cooks or maids clean your home super cheaply, you can likely live ( rent or buy) more cheaply than comparable to US.
you can eat out at average / local spots more cheaply
local grocery is cheap – if you still want to enjoy your American food brands, or buy fruits from outside LATAM, CA wine, or french wine, be prepared to pay WAY MOREAll of my friends- even the ones of latin descent who have gone to places like Panama, Rio, Sao Paolo to work and live, have all opted to come back to the US. The quality of life is better here. Its safer, its more efficient. And ultimately, its where friends and family are- a little extra cash can’t replace that.[/quote]
GREAT post and spot on target. You are exactly right. Most Americans, even if you can speak perfect and fluent Spanish (or the local language) you will pretty much always be thought of as a Yankee. The biggest annoyance for me is the lack of transparency and the hassles of people always trying to pull a fast one on you.
The way you avoid this is to build up long-term beneficial relationships with people but even then MANY people in Latin America have this “make the most for today” type attitude. Here in the USA we have these relationships where we try to have long-term mutually beneficial relationships where we try to do business with one another for many years.
Sure you have some of that but in many countries they try to extract the most they can out of you one time. So it can be frustrating to deal with.
Even if you aren’t wealthy as mentioned, you will always be thought of as being well off even if you are on a fixed income, etc.
#2 that is SO true. EVERYTHING for the most part is slow. Grocery store, banks, post office, you name it. It can be frustrating doing small little everyday things. I don’t care how long you live there, if you are used to efficiency it can drive you mad! I lived in South America for almost a decade and NEVER got used to it.
Everything is always tomorrow tomorrow tomorrow (mañana mañana mañana).
Obviously there are many positives but this last post was brilliant and spot on target.
deadzone,
I haven’t read enough of your posts to know your personality or if your other posts are intelligent or not. I’m not even saying I disagree with all your points but you just come back with “prove it” “prove it” “prove it”. Even when people are taking the time to post some good URL’s. Like a stubborn little kid whose mother tells him to each his spinach because it’s good for it.
I WILL agree with you that Brazil is a wonderful place outside of Rio and Sao Paulo. Especially the South like in Florianópolis. Just gorgeous! But Brazil has gotten really expensive now with the exchange rate. I still love Rio and it’s one of my favorite places in the world and I still own an apartment there.
Edit: Deadzone, I was curious so I read a random sampling of some of your posts the past few years and actually I totally agreed on most all of your other posts that I read. That was surprising to me. I expected something totally different so that was nice to see. So it appears we disagree mainly on this post. 🙂 Which is ok..
Participant[quote=SD Realtor]My friends didn’t get killed. They just had over 10k in personal property stolen, their trucks stolen and were told to lay down on the hillside with guns pointed to their heads.
No media involved. They lived.
It was good enough for me not to go down anymore.[/quote]
Exactly SD Realtor. That’s more of the stuff that happens over and over. While deathzone (appropriate screen name) seems to be obsessed about death/murders, most reasonable people keep in mind what happened to your friends.
That kind of thing there in many countries is normal and like your friends, they lived to tell about it and didn’t tell it to the media, police, etc.
When my taxi got pulled over in Brazil and a group of police officers had their guns out and asked my friends and I to empty our pockets we were ready to give them all our money. Fortunately another group of friends was behind us and stopped. And my co-worker in the other taxi spoke Portuguese. (mine is conversational) but he was totally fluent and fortunately he knew other people in their government so he threw out a name and we were on our way.
But if we DID get robbed, we wouldn’t have reported it and just chalked it up to cost of being in a corrupt country. Just like most locals do and don’t report it.
Participant[quote=deadzone]Yes I am for real.
[/quote]We are NOT saying that tons of Americans are getting murdered. Most of us are being objective and saying the crime rate has increased overall in Mexico and things are happening that were NOT happening 20 years ago.
I do agree with you that Baja area is generally safer than many other parts of Mexico. And I’m not even saying anything bad will happen. Odds are if you aren’t involved in any illegal activities you should be fine. But to try to say crime is the same as 20 years ago I wouldn’t find accurate.
I’m not even one of these guys that say “stay out of Mexico”. Quite the contrary and I’ve been to Mexico many times with my family. But even in touristy and safe areas I went to, I would just go to the beach and go to an upscale bar and I still saw guys with guns tucked into their pants. My wife saw the same thing.
I’m not saying that anything bad happened because it didn’t. But the thing is that in many of these types of places you can be in the wrong place at the wrong time when something happens. Same as the USA.
One thing I’ll say is the Mexican government is VERY conscious about how important tourism is and they are doing all they can to prevent violence from happening with tourists. So that is a huge positive.
Read some of these articles.
Look at entities in the UK like the Foreign and Commonwealth Office issuing warnings like: “The FCO advise against all but essential travel to parts of the country (Mexico).
– 113 Americans killed in Mexico in 2011
– 2012 a RECORD 120 Americans were killed in Mexico.In 2007 it was only 35 Americans killed.
Now deadzone, I don’t claim to be some financial guru but 120 is more than 35. And “record” means that it’s the MOST ever. So I don’t think your “it’s as safe as 20 years ago” holds too much water.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/mexican-drug-cartels-move-deeper-u-s-article-1.1304401
Particularly important to note, “”Most victims of crime and violence are Mexicans involved in criminal activity, but the security situation also poses risks for foreigners.”
Mexico Tops “World’s Most Dangerous Country List”
http://www.firstpost.com/world/mexico-tops-worlds-most-dangerous-country-list-487711.html
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/01/06/f-mexico-q-a-walter-mckay.html
http://www.gadling.com/2012/10/24/crime-in-mexico-is-baja-safe-for-travelers/ (It would have sucked to be this AMERICAN bystander that got shot and killed in the cross fire)
http://www.surfermag.com/features/carjackedmexicobaja/ (These guys will probably disagree with you that things are the same as 20 years ago).
http://tijuana.usconsulate.gov/avoid-crime-in-baja.html (Particularly interesting is this part, “Kidnapping, including the kidnapping of non-Mexicans, continues at alarming rates. So-called “express kidnappings,” attempts to get quick cash in exchange for the release of an individual, have occurred in almost all the large cities in Mexico and appear to target the middle class as well as the wealthy. ”
Or maybe this part, “Harassment/Extortion: The U.S. Consulate General in Tijuana receives numerous reports of extortion by supposed police officers in Baja California. Sometimes the perpetrators are actual police officers, and sometimes they are criminals using fake police uniforms and credentials.”
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5815.html
Again, to take note, “The number of kidnappings and disappearances throughout Mexico is of particular concern. Both local and expatriate communities have been victimized. In addition, local police have been implicated in some of these incidents. ”
Also, important, “Baja California (north): Tijuana and Mexicali are major cities/travel destinations in the state of Baja California -see map to identify their exact locations: You should exercise caution in the northern state of Baja California, particularly at night. For the one-year period ending July 2012, the number of murders in Mexicali increased by 43%, from 127 to 181, over the preceding year. The number of murders in the city of Tijuana was 351 for the same period. In the majority of these cases, the killings appeared to be related to narcotics trafficking. Targeted TCO assassinations continue to take place in Baja California. Turf battles between criminal groups resulted in assassinations in areas of Tijuana frequented by U.S. citizens. Shooting incidents, in which innocent bystanders have been injured, have occurred during daylight hours. Twenty-five U.S. citizens were the victims of homicide in the state in the 12-month period ending July 2012.
http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/fulano_de_tal/2011/oct/26/crimes-against-americans-in-baja/
But then I guess deadzone you will come back and tell us that things are still as safe as the glory days. Right? I can tell you love Mexico and that is great. So do I.
But I kind of equate this kind of thing to a guy that is totally in love with his wife. He is married to her for 30 years and to this guy his wife is as beautiful to him as the day he first met her when she was 20. Now at 50 he finds her more beautiful than ever. Someone shows random strangers the two photos and ask which woman is more beautiful. EVERYONE picks out the younger woman. The old man picks the photo when his wife is older. I look at it kind of like that.
Again, I’m not one of those people that would advise people to not visit Mexico or other countries in Latin or South America. I still say if you aren’t involved in any drugs or illegal activities your chances of being a victim are fairly low, especially if you speak Spanish.
I’ve even been pulled over at a police check point in Brazil and had the police pull me and my friends out of our car on the side of a road and pull out their guns to ask for some money. It was a SCARY experience but it’s not like I stopped going or advised people to stop going there.
Even with all this violence in Mexico the tourism numbers for Americans continue to go up each year which tells you how much Americans love Mexico and rightly so. It’s a wonderful country. But I am not about to say that crime is like it was 20 years ago.
And again, I’d TOTALLY forget about things like murders because that isn’t your biggest risk in Mexico. It’s robberies and as I mentioned, the reported #’s are NO WHERE near accurate.
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