[DWCAP]

[quote=HLS]Lots more could be written….HLS[/quote]

If you keep writing, Ill keep reading.

The two books on my pigg reading (if they are ever written) list are:

1) ‘TG’s guide to anything/everything’.
2) HLS’s ‘Dont be a stupid consumer’.

On a side note, where would you get a auto loan? Bank? Credit Union? Dealer?

Oh, and what would happen if the governmemnt steped out of Lending? Just theoretically, would banks stepup and lend without being able to just offload to the GSE’s?

[DWCAP]

[quote=HLS]Lots more could be written….HLS[/quote]

If you keep writing, Ill keep reading.

The two books on my pigg reading (if they are ever written) list are:

1) ‘TG’s guide to anything/everything’.
2) HLS’s ‘Dont be a stupid consumer’.

On a side note, where would you get a auto loan? Bank? Credit Union? Dealer?

Oh, and what would happen if the governmemnt steped out of Lending? Just theoretically, would banks stepup and lend without being able to just offload to the GSE’s?

[DWCAP]

My position is simply that when pushed, people return to what worked last time. For the past 50+ years, the economic trick has been to devalue your currency, ramp up exports, and maybe exploit a natural resource you didnt before (if you have any left). Oh, and deficit spend until ‘demand returns to normal’. Those that are in power will simply return to this plan when pushed, as they are and have been for the past 12-18 months. Since all those exports are generally aimed at American consumers, dollars are the only game in town.

Your basic hypothesis (as I understand it) is that the other world economies are ganging up together to get away from the dollar. I disagree because I dont think they have anywhere to go. They can blow up the dollar, but then what? They dont get to leave the room.

Each and everyone of them wants to export their way to prosperity, most easily obtained by making your goods cheaper overseas by devaluing the currency. The problem is, in general, they devalue it in overall relation to each other. If the euro devalues 25%, then that is in relation to the yen and the franc and the dollar. Well, their goods will get cheaper in our currencies, but then our domestic manufactures suffer. So the dollar devalues to compensate and the franc follows and the yen too and eventually we are back where we started from. It is all highly inflationary, but in our deflationary environment, that is what they want.

The other idea is to exploit some natural resource you didnt before. The problem there is that we have over capacity in most natural resources. Lumber, copper, iron, steel, grain etc; they are all in the same boat. There is plenty of supply to meet current demand. So that wont work either unless you happen to have access to a very select group of resources that really are quiet rare.

SO yes, the dollar will be a force in the decade to come. Perhaps not the lone super power it was in the late 1990’s, but we are not going zimbobwae on anyone. Our trading partners simply wont allow it, because if they did then they not only dont get to export to us, they gotta deal with our surge in exports to them. Politically and financially they cant handel that, so they buy into the game again.

The devil you know is better than the demon you dont.

[DWCAP]

My position is simply that when pushed, people return to what worked last time. For the past 50+ years, the economic trick has been to devalue your currency, ramp up exports, and maybe exploit a natural resource you didnt before (if you have any left). Oh, and deficit spend until ‘demand returns to normal’. Those that are in power will simply return to this plan when pushed, as they are and have been for the past 12-18 months. Since all those exports are generally aimed at American consumers, dollars are the only game in town.

Your basic hypothesis (as I understand it) is that the other world economies are ganging up together to get away from the dollar. I disagree because I dont think they have anywhere to go. They can blow up the dollar, but then what? They dont get to leave the room.

Each and everyone of them wants to export their way to prosperity, most easily obtained by making your goods cheaper overseas by devaluing the currency. The problem is, in general, they devalue it in overall relation to each other. If the euro devalues 25%, then that is in relation to the yen and the franc and the dollar. Well, their goods will get cheaper in our currencies, but then our domestic manufactures suffer. So the dollar devalues to compensate and the franc follows and the yen too and eventually we are back where we started from. It is all highly inflationary, but in our deflationary environment, that is what they want.

The other idea is to exploit some natural resource you didnt before. The problem there is that we have over capacity in most natural resources. Lumber, copper, iron, steel, grain etc; they are all in the same boat. There is plenty of supply to meet current demand. So that wont work either unless you happen to have access to a very select group of resources that really are quiet rare.

SO yes, the dollar will be a force in the decade to come. Perhaps not the lone super power it was in the late 1990’s, but we are not going zimbobwae on anyone. Our trading partners simply wont allow it, because if they did then they not only dont get to export to us, they gotta deal with our surge in exports to them. Politically and financially they cant handel that, so they buy into the game again.

The devil you know is better than the demon you dont.

[DWCAP]

My position is simply that when pushed, people return to what worked last time. For the past 50+ years, the economic trick has been to devalue your currency, ramp up exports, and maybe exploit a natural resource you didnt before (if you have any left). Oh, and deficit spend until ‘demand returns to normal’. Those that are in power will simply return to this plan when pushed, as they are and have been for the past 12-18 months. Since all those exports are generally aimed at American consumers, dollars are the only game in town.

Your basic hypothesis (as I understand it) is that the other world economies are ganging up together to get away from the dollar. I disagree because I dont think they have anywhere to go. They can blow up the dollar, but then what? They dont get to leave the room.

Each and everyone of them wants to export their way to prosperity, most easily obtained by making your goods cheaper overseas by devaluing the currency. The problem is, in general, they devalue it in overall relation to each other. If the euro devalues 25%, then that is in relation to the yen and the franc and the dollar. Well, their goods will get cheaper in our currencies, but then our domestic manufactures suffer. So the dollar devalues to compensate and the franc follows and the yen too and eventually we are back where we started from. It is all highly inflationary, but in our deflationary environment, that is what they want.

The other idea is to exploit some natural resource you didnt before. The problem there is that we have over capacity in most natural resources. Lumber, copper, iron, steel, grain etc; they are all in the same boat. There is plenty of supply to meet current demand. So that wont work either unless you happen to have access to a very select group of resources that really are quiet rare.

SO yes, the dollar will be a force in the decade to come. Perhaps not the lone super power it was in the late 1990’s, but we are not going zimbobwae on anyone. Our trading partners simply wont allow it, because if they did then they not only dont get to export to us, they gotta deal with our surge in exports to them. Politically and financially they cant handel that, so they buy into the game again.

The devil you know is better than the demon you dont.

[DWCAP]

My position is simply that when pushed, people return to what worked last time. For the past 50+ years, the economic trick has been to devalue your currency, ramp up exports, and maybe exploit a natural resource you didnt before (if you have any left). Oh, and deficit spend until ‘demand returns to normal’. Those that are in power will simply return to this plan when pushed, as they are and have been for the past 12-18 months. Since all those exports are generally aimed at American consumers, dollars are the only game in town.

Your basic hypothesis (as I understand it) is that the other world economies are ganging up together to get away from the dollar. I disagree because I dont think they have anywhere to go. They can blow up the dollar, but then what? They dont get to leave the room.

Each and everyone of them wants to export their way to prosperity, most easily obtained by making your goods cheaper overseas by devaluing the currency. The problem is, in general, they devalue it in overall relation to each other. If the euro devalues 25%, then that is in relation to the yen and the franc and the dollar. Well, their goods will get cheaper in our currencies, but then our domestic manufactures suffer. So the dollar devalues to compensate and the franc follows and the yen too and eventually we are back where we started from. It is all highly inflationary, but in our deflationary environment, that is what they want.

The other idea is to exploit some natural resource you didnt before. The problem there is that we have over capacity in most natural resources. Lumber, copper, iron, steel, grain etc; they are all in the same boat. There is plenty of supply to meet current demand. So that wont work either unless you happen to have access to a very select group of resources that really are quiet rare.

SO yes, the dollar will be a force in the decade to come. Perhaps not the lone super power it was in the late 1990’s, but we are not going zimbobwae on anyone. Our trading partners simply wont allow it, because if they did then they not only dont get to export to us, they gotta deal with our surge in exports to them. Politically and financially they cant handel that, so they buy into the game again.

The devil you know is better than the demon you dont.

[DWCAP]

My position is simply that when pushed, people return to what worked last time. For the past 50+ years, the economic trick has been to devalue your currency, ramp up exports, and maybe exploit a natural resource you didnt before (if you have any left). Oh, and deficit spend until ‘demand returns to normal’. Those that are in power will simply return to this plan when pushed, as they are and have been for the past 12-18 months. Since all those exports are generally aimed at American consumers, dollars are the only game in town.

Your basic hypothesis (as I understand it) is that the other world economies are ganging up together to get away from the dollar. I disagree because I dont think they have anywhere to go. They can blow up the dollar, but then what? They dont get to leave the room.

Each and everyone of them wants to export their way to prosperity, most easily obtained by making your goods cheaper overseas by devaluing the currency. The problem is, in general, they devalue it in overall relation to each other. If the euro devalues 25%, then that is in relation to the yen and the franc and the dollar. Well, their goods will get cheaper in our currencies, but then our domestic manufactures suffer. So the dollar devalues to compensate and the franc follows and the yen too and eventually we are back where we started from. It is all highly inflationary, but in our deflationary environment, that is what they want.

The other idea is to exploit some natural resource you didnt before. The problem there is that we have over capacity in most natural resources. Lumber, copper, iron, steel, grain etc; they are all in the same boat. There is plenty of supply to meet current demand. So that wont work either unless you happen to have access to a very select group of resources that really are quiet rare.

SO yes, the dollar will be a force in the decade to come. Perhaps not the lone super power it was in the late 1990’s, but we are not going zimbobwae on anyone. Our trading partners simply wont allow it, because if they did then they not only dont get to export to us, they gotta deal with our surge in exports to them. Politically and financially they cant handel that, so they buy into the game again.

The devil you know is better than the demon you dont.

[DWCAP]

Ill tell you where my disagreement with the ‘pig bulls’ is: That all this doesnt matter to the little guy like me.

Look, 4 years ago I couldnt afford Jack or shit. Maybe I could buy a spot under a freeway overpass with high voltage wires running next to it. Now, I can buy something I may actually want to live in. Sure, all those deep pockets will come rushing in and buy up the best deals; how is that a suprise? They get the IPO deals in stocks, they get the best repo’s, they get the PIPP money, they get to hide their money in foreign tax havens until the day before the IRS comes down on them and then ‘come clean without penalty'(or minor penalty). The game is rigged against me in EVERY game I try to play.

But when those guys buy a house at 40cents/$, and sell it to me for slightly under market making a killing, I GET TO BUY A HOUSE FOR SLIGHTLY UNDER MARKET. (ie also known as affordable) Sure, it would have been more affordable if they wernt in the game acting like useless middle men. But name me another market where those same middle men dont exist with other first and last names.

Every time these guys buy up houses they either rent them out, increasing rental supply and lowering prices, or sell them to someone at ‘slightly under market’, slighlty lowering the market. Either way prices for housing fall until base line affordable (in today’s reality, not historical average) hits. Maybe it takes longer than I want, maybe I wont get the deal of the century, maybe things never get as good as they should have. But I get to buy a house I want for a price I can pay and can live my life where I want to. As a bonified ‘little guy’; ill take what I can get. (atleast until I get to be something else)

[DWCAP]

Ill tell you where my disagreement with the ‘pig bulls’ is: That all this doesnt matter to the little guy like me.

Look, 4 years ago I couldnt afford Jack or shit. Maybe I could buy a spot under a freeway overpass with high voltage wires running next to it. Now, I can buy something I may actually want to live in. Sure, all those deep pockets will come rushing in and buy up the best deals; how is that a suprise? They get the IPO deals in stocks, they get the best repo’s, they get the PIPP money, they get to hide their money in foreign tax havens until the day before the IRS comes down on them and then ‘come clean without penalty'(or minor penalty). The game is rigged against me in EVERY game I try to play.

But when those guys buy a house at 40cents/$, and sell it to me for slightly under market making a killing, I GET TO BUY A HOUSE FOR SLIGHTLY UNDER MARKET. (ie also known as affordable) Sure, it would have been more affordable if they wernt in the game acting like useless middle men. But name me another market where those same middle men dont exist with other first and last names.

Every time these guys buy up houses they either rent them out, increasing rental supply and lowering prices, or sell them to someone at ‘slightly under market’, slighlty lowering the market. Either way prices for housing fall until base line affordable (in today’s reality, not historical average) hits. Maybe it takes longer than I want, maybe I wont get the deal of the century, maybe things never get as good as they should have. But I get to buy a house I want for a price I can pay and can live my life where I want to. As a bonified ‘little guy’; ill take what I can get. (atleast until I get to be something else)

[DWCAP]

Ill tell you where my disagreement with the ‘pig bulls’ is: That all this doesnt matter to the little guy like me.

Look, 4 years ago I couldnt afford Jack or shit. Maybe I could buy a spot under a freeway overpass with high voltage wires running next to it. Now, I can buy something I may actually want to live in. Sure, all those deep pockets will come rushing in and buy up the best deals; how is that a suprise? They get the IPO deals in stocks, they get the best repo’s, they get the PIPP money, they get to hide their money in foreign tax havens until the day before the IRS comes down on them and then ‘come clean without penalty'(or minor penalty). The game is rigged against me in EVERY game I try to play.

But when those guys buy a house at 40cents/$, and sell it to me for slightly under market making a killing, I GET TO BUY A HOUSE FOR SLIGHTLY UNDER MARKET. (ie also known as affordable) Sure, it would have been more affordable if they wernt in the game acting like useless middle men. But name me another market where those same middle men dont exist with other first and last names.

Every time these guys buy up houses they either rent them out, increasing rental supply and lowering prices, or sell them to someone at ‘slightly under market’, slighlty lowering the market. Either way prices for housing fall until base line affordable (in today’s reality, not historical average) hits. Maybe it takes longer than I want, maybe I wont get the deal of the century, maybe things never get as good as they should have. But I get to buy a house I want for a price I can pay and can live my life where I want to. As a bonified ‘little guy’; ill take what I can get. (atleast until I get to be something else)

[DWCAP]

Ill tell you where my disagreement with the ‘pig bulls’ is: That all this doesnt matter to the little guy like me.

Look, 4 years ago I couldnt afford Jack or shit. Maybe I could buy a spot under a freeway overpass with high voltage wires running next to it. Now, I can buy something I may actually want to live in. Sure, all those deep pockets will come rushing in and buy up the best deals; how is that a suprise? They get the IPO deals in stocks, they get the best repo’s, they get the PIPP money, they get to hide their money in foreign tax havens until the day before the IRS comes down on them and then ‘come clean without penalty'(or minor penalty). The game is rigged against me in EVERY game I try to play.

But when those guys buy a house at 40cents/$, and sell it to me for slightly under market making a killing, I GET TO BUY A HOUSE FOR SLIGHTLY UNDER MARKET. (ie also known as affordable) Sure, it would have been more affordable if they wernt in the game acting like useless middle men. But name me another market where those same middle men dont exist with other first and last names.

Every time these guys buy up houses they either rent them out, increasing rental supply and lowering prices, or sell them to someone at ‘slightly under market’, slighlty lowering the market. Either way prices for housing fall until base line affordable (in today’s reality, not historical average) hits. Maybe it takes longer than I want, maybe I wont get the deal of the century, maybe things never get as good as they should have. But I get to buy a house I want for a price I can pay and can live my life where I want to. As a bonified ‘little guy’; ill take what I can get. (atleast until I get to be something else)

[DWCAP]

Ill tell you where my disagreement with the ‘pig bulls’ is: That all this doesnt matter to the little guy like me.

Look, 4 years ago I couldnt afford Jack or shit. Maybe I could buy a spot under a freeway overpass with high voltage wires running next to it. Now, I can buy something I may actually want to live in. Sure, all those deep pockets will come rushing in and buy up the best deals; how is that a suprise? They get the IPO deals in stocks, they get the best repo’s, they get the PIPP money, they get to hide their money in foreign tax havens until the day before the IRS comes down on them and then ‘come clean without penalty'(or minor penalty). The game is rigged against me in EVERY game I try to play.

But when those guys buy a house at 40cents/$, and sell it to me for slightly under market making a killing, I GET TO BUY A HOUSE FOR SLIGHTLY UNDER MARKET. (ie also known as affordable) Sure, it would have been more affordable if they wernt in the game acting like useless middle men. But name me another market where those same middle men dont exist with other first and last names.

Every time these guys buy up houses they either rent them out, increasing rental supply and lowering prices, or sell them to someone at ‘slightly under market’, slighlty lowering the market. Either way prices for housing fall until base line affordable (in today’s reality, not historical average) hits. Maybe it takes longer than I want, maybe I wont get the deal of the century, maybe things never get as good as they should have. But I get to buy a house I want for a price I can pay and can live my life where I want to. As a bonified ‘little guy’; ill take what I can get. (atleast until I get to be something else)

[DWCAP]

I dont buy it. Dollar will be around for a long long time. And it will be a major player for a long time too.

Every country out there wants to export their way back to health. China, the big international heaththrob, has built its economy to export. They link their currency to the Dollar so even though we are falling, they are falling too. Unpeg that and China would get creamed. Wal-Mart/Target prices would shoot up, US consumption of nearly everything would fall (less money to spend after buying necessities will affect everything we buy), and their exports would plummet. They have a very large population to support, and that population needs jobs.
Europe and Japan are no different. Even Toyota is loosing money and crying uncle from the yen exchange rate. Arn’t they suppose to the role model for our crappy us automakers? A plunging dollar would just make that worse, and drag all of Japan down with it.
Plus remember that huge percentages of our ‘Asian’ imports are finished goods. They imported Austrailian iron ore and Middle east oil and south asian plastic pieces and …. to make all those things they send to us. They stop sending to us, they stop buying from them, and that ends the ‘non-US consumer’ thoeory of how we will get out of this.

I agree that internationally leaders are unhappy with the dollar. They need a ‘strong dollar’ to support their politically popular and economically powerful export engines. However, they also dont have a choice in the matter. Europe is PISSED at their exchange rate, and if it gets too much worse will intervine to lower it. China’s currency doesnt float, nuf said till it does. Japan is going into a population, currency, and dept crisis all at the same time. They are more Fraked than we are. Who else is there?

People are stuck with the dollar, and that is just the way it will be for a lot longer than 2010. Just like China is buying treasuries (a loosing proposition right now IMO) they are stuck with the dollar because their PTB are getting rich off the trade system we have. They wont change and risk their fortunes and political systems for their own countries long term good. And the system and power base we have now is priced in ‘strong dollars’.

[DWCAP]

I dont buy it. Dollar will be around for a long long time. And it will be a major player for a long time too.

Every country out there wants to export their way back to health. China, the big international heaththrob, has built its economy to export. They link their currency to the Dollar so even though we are falling, they are falling too. Unpeg that and China would get creamed. Wal-Mart/Target prices would shoot up, US consumption of nearly everything would fall (less money to spend after buying necessities will affect everything we buy), and their exports would plummet. They have a very large population to support, and that population needs jobs.
Europe and Japan are no different. Even Toyota is loosing money and crying uncle from the yen exchange rate. Arn’t they suppose to the role model for our crappy us automakers? A plunging dollar would just make that worse, and drag all of Japan down with it.
Plus remember that huge percentages of our ‘Asian’ imports are finished goods. They imported Austrailian iron ore and Middle east oil and south asian plastic pieces and …. to make all those things they send to us. They stop sending to us, they stop buying from them, and that ends the ‘non-US consumer’ thoeory of how we will get out of this.

I agree that internationally leaders are unhappy with the dollar. They need a ‘strong dollar’ to support their politically popular and economically powerful export engines. However, they also dont have a choice in the matter. Europe is PISSED at their exchange rate, and if it gets too much worse will intervine to lower it. China’s currency doesnt float, nuf said till it does. Japan is going into a population, currency, and dept crisis all at the same time. They are more Fraked than we are. Who else is there?

People are stuck with the dollar, and that is just the way it will be for a lot longer than 2010. Just like China is buying treasuries (a loosing proposition right now IMO) they are stuck with the dollar because their PTB are getting rich off the trade system we have. They wont change and risk their fortunes and political systems for their own countries long term good. And the system and power base we have now is priced in ‘strong dollars’.

[DWCAP]

I dont buy it. Dollar will be around for a long long time. And it will be a major player for a long time too.

Every country out there wants to export their way back to health. China, the big international heaththrob, has built its economy to export. They link their currency to the Dollar so even though we are falling, they are falling too. Unpeg that and China would get creamed. Wal-Mart/Target prices would shoot up, US consumption of nearly everything would fall (less money to spend after buying necessities will affect everything we buy), and their exports would plummet. They have a very large population to support, and that population needs jobs.
Europe and Japan are no different. Even Toyota is loosing money and crying uncle from the yen exchange rate. Arn’t they suppose to the role model for our crappy us automakers? A plunging dollar would just make that worse, and drag all of Japan down with it.
Plus remember that huge percentages of our ‘Asian’ imports are finished goods. They imported Austrailian iron ore and Middle east oil and south asian plastic pieces and …. to make all those things they send to us. They stop sending to us, they stop buying from them, and that ends the ‘non-US consumer’ thoeory of how we will get out of this.

I agree that internationally leaders are unhappy with the dollar. They need a ‘strong dollar’ to support their politically popular and economically powerful export engines. However, they also dont have a choice in the matter. Europe is PISSED at their exchange rate, and if it gets too much worse will intervine to lower it. China’s currency doesnt float, nuf said till it does. Japan is going into a population, currency, and dept crisis all at the same time. They are more Fraked than we are. Who else is there?

People are stuck with the dollar, and that is just the way it will be for a lot longer than 2010. Just like China is buying treasuries (a loosing proposition right now IMO) they are stuck with the dollar because their PTB are getting rich off the trade system we have. They wont change and risk their fortunes and political systems for their own countries long term good. And the system and power base we have now is priced in ‘strong dollars’.

[Author]

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