[DWCAP]

My vote is even, +/- 1%. The fear is better understood, but overall balance sheets are worse as noticed in increasing bankruptcies, credit is tighter, and unemployment is worse.

We already suffered a big drop last year, so this is the second year of the recession. The comparison is much easier. Things wont be good, just not falling like last year.

[DWCAP]

My vote is even, +/- 1%. The fear is better understood, but overall balance sheets are worse as noticed in increasing bankruptcies, credit is tighter, and unemployment is worse.

We already suffered a big drop last year, so this is the second year of the recession. The comparison is much easier. Things wont be good, just not falling like last year.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Eugene][quote=Zeitgeist]”The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”

New York Times: U.S. Racing Toward Debt ‘Shock’

“A page one, top-of-the-fold New York Times report Monday warns that U.S. debt is rising so fast that the federal government is careening toward a ‘payment shock’ in the not-too-distant future.”

“The Times lead headline read: ‘Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments: At $700 Billion a Year, Cost Will Top Budgets for 2 Wars, Education, Energy.’”

“The Times headline appears eerie just as the Senate moves to push forward on a radical healthcare reform — with CBO estimates for a final bill costing nearly $1 trillion dollars over the next year.”[/quote]

Meanwhile, Bill Gross of Pimco has increased his fund’s holdings of US-government-related debt from 48 percent in September to 63 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN78quNzqd5Y&pos=5

But hey, what does one of the most successful bond investors in history know?[/quote]

[quote article]Gross said in his December investment outlook last week that the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows. Under what Pimco has termed the “new normal,” investors should be prepared for lower-than-average historical returns with heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy. [/quote]

Wait, I dont understand your point. PIMCO is buying more bonds becuase it see’s building bubbles in other assets and that returns in other classes of investments will be lower than historical trend. It would rather be on the recieving end of the future higher government payments than (only) on the taxed end, given that todays other investments are expected to run below previous returns and the US economy will play a shrinking role in the future (read fewer taxes/financial muscle). This seems to play into the times article, especially since it doesnt say what maturities or if the bonds are TIPS or not.

What was your argument?

[DWCAP]

[quote=Eugene][quote=Zeitgeist]”The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”

New York Times: U.S. Racing Toward Debt ‘Shock’

“A page one, top-of-the-fold New York Times report Monday warns that U.S. debt is rising so fast that the federal government is careening toward a ‘payment shock’ in the not-too-distant future.”

“The Times lead headline read: ‘Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments: At $700 Billion a Year, Cost Will Top Budgets for 2 Wars, Education, Energy.’”

“The Times headline appears eerie just as the Senate moves to push forward on a radical healthcare reform — with CBO estimates for a final bill costing nearly $1 trillion dollars over the next year.”[/quote]

Meanwhile, Bill Gross of Pimco has increased his fund’s holdings of US-government-related debt from 48 percent in September to 63 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN78quNzqd5Y&pos=5

But hey, what does one of the most successful bond investors in history know?[/quote]

[quote article]Gross said in his December investment outlook last week that the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows. Under what Pimco has termed the “new normal,” investors should be prepared for lower-than-average historical returns with heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy. [/quote]

Wait, I dont understand your point. PIMCO is buying more bonds becuase it see’s building bubbles in other assets and that returns in other classes of investments will be lower than historical trend. It would rather be on the recieving end of the future higher government payments than (only) on the taxed end, given that todays other investments are expected to run below previous returns and the US economy will play a shrinking role in the future (read fewer taxes/financial muscle). This seems to play into the times article, especially since it doesnt say what maturities or if the bonds are TIPS or not.

What was your argument?

[DWCAP]

[quote=Eugene][quote=Zeitgeist]”The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”

New York Times: U.S. Racing Toward Debt ‘Shock’

“A page one, top-of-the-fold New York Times report Monday warns that U.S. debt is rising so fast that the federal government is careening toward a ‘payment shock’ in the not-too-distant future.”

“The Times lead headline read: ‘Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments: At $700 Billion a Year, Cost Will Top Budgets for 2 Wars, Education, Energy.’”

“The Times headline appears eerie just as the Senate moves to push forward on a radical healthcare reform — with CBO estimates for a final bill costing nearly $1 trillion dollars over the next year.”[/quote]

Meanwhile, Bill Gross of Pimco has increased his fund’s holdings of US-government-related debt from 48 percent in September to 63 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN78quNzqd5Y&pos=5

But hey, what does one of the most successful bond investors in history know?[/quote]

[quote article]Gross said in his December investment outlook last week that the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows. Under what Pimco has termed the “new normal,” investors should be prepared for lower-than-average historical returns with heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy. [/quote]

Wait, I dont understand your point. PIMCO is buying more bonds becuase it see’s building bubbles in other assets and that returns in other classes of investments will be lower than historical trend. It would rather be on the recieving end of the future higher government payments than (only) on the taxed end, given that todays other investments are expected to run below previous returns and the US economy will play a shrinking role in the future (read fewer taxes/financial muscle). This seems to play into the times article, especially since it doesnt say what maturities or if the bonds are TIPS or not.

What was your argument?

[DWCAP]

[quote=Eugene][quote=Zeitgeist]”The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”

New York Times: U.S. Racing Toward Debt ‘Shock’

“A page one, top-of-the-fold New York Times report Monday warns that U.S. debt is rising so fast that the federal government is careening toward a ‘payment shock’ in the not-too-distant future.”

“The Times lead headline read: ‘Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments: At $700 Billion a Year, Cost Will Top Budgets for 2 Wars, Education, Energy.’”

“The Times headline appears eerie just as the Senate moves to push forward on a radical healthcare reform — with CBO estimates for a final bill costing nearly $1 trillion dollars over the next year.”[/quote]

Meanwhile, Bill Gross of Pimco has increased his fund’s holdings of US-government-related debt from 48 percent in September to 63 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN78quNzqd5Y&pos=5

But hey, what does one of the most successful bond investors in history know?[/quote]

[quote article]Gross said in his December investment outlook last week that the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows. Under what Pimco has termed the “new normal,” investors should be prepared for lower-than-average historical returns with heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy. [/quote]

Wait, I dont understand your point. PIMCO is buying more bonds becuase it see’s building bubbles in other assets and that returns in other classes of investments will be lower than historical trend. It would rather be on the recieving end of the future higher government payments than (only) on the taxed end, given that todays other investments are expected to run below previous returns and the US economy will play a shrinking role in the future (read fewer taxes/financial muscle). This seems to play into the times article, especially since it doesnt say what maturities or if the bonds are TIPS or not.

What was your argument?

[DWCAP]

[quote=Eugene][quote=Zeitgeist]”The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”

New York Times: U.S. Racing Toward Debt ‘Shock’

“A page one, top-of-the-fold New York Times report Monday warns that U.S. debt is rising so fast that the federal government is careening toward a ‘payment shock’ in the not-too-distant future.”

“The Times lead headline read: ‘Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments: At $700 Billion a Year, Cost Will Top Budgets for 2 Wars, Education, Energy.’”

“The Times headline appears eerie just as the Senate moves to push forward on a radical healthcare reform — with CBO estimates for a final bill costing nearly $1 trillion dollars over the next year.”[/quote]

Meanwhile, Bill Gross of Pimco has increased his fund’s holdings of US-government-related debt from 48 percent in September to 63 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN78quNzqd5Y&pos=5

But hey, what does one of the most successful bond investors in history know?[/quote]

[quote article]Gross said in his December investment outlook last week that the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows. Under what Pimco has termed the “new normal,” investors should be prepared for lower-than-average historical returns with heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy. [/quote]

Wait, I dont understand your point. PIMCO is buying more bonds becuase it see’s building bubbles in other assets and that returns in other classes of investments will be lower than historical trend. It would rather be on the recieving end of the future higher government payments than (only) on the taxed end, given that todays other investments are expected to run below previous returns and the US economy will play a shrinking role in the future (read fewer taxes/financial muscle). This seems to play into the times article, especially since it doesnt say what maturities or if the bonds are TIPS or not.

What was your argument?

[DWCAP]

I was far more depressed back in 2006-2007 reading the buisness section of the paper than I am now reading Mish or piggington or whatever ‘bear’ blog you prefer. Back then I kept thinking, “I dont get it, could everything all my economic’s teachers in college taught me be totally wrong???” and “How the hell am I the only one who isnt making a million dollars a year? Everyone seems to have so frakin much money. How do they do it??”

Now I read the news and while not happy news, it atleast confirms that I didnt waste those years in college and that the professors were not lying to me. Plus it serves as a nice bullwark against those ‘happy’ articles in the buisness section.

[DWCAP]

I was far more depressed back in 2006-2007 reading the buisness section of the paper than I am now reading Mish or piggington or whatever ‘bear’ blog you prefer. Back then I kept thinking, “I dont get it, could everything all my economic’s teachers in college taught me be totally wrong???” and “How the hell am I the only one who isnt making a million dollars a year? Everyone seems to have so frakin much money. How do they do it??”

Now I read the news and while not happy news, it atleast confirms that I didnt waste those years in college and that the professors were not lying to me. Plus it serves as a nice bullwark against those ‘happy’ articles in the buisness section.

[DWCAP]

I was far more depressed back in 2006-2007 reading the buisness section of the paper than I am now reading Mish or piggington or whatever ‘bear’ blog you prefer. Back then I kept thinking, “I dont get it, could everything all my economic’s teachers in college taught me be totally wrong???” and “How the hell am I the only one who isnt making a million dollars a year? Everyone seems to have so frakin much money. How do they do it??”

Now I read the news and while not happy news, it atleast confirms that I didnt waste those years in college and that the professors were not lying to me. Plus it serves as a nice bullwark against those ‘happy’ articles in the buisness section.

[DWCAP]

I was far more depressed back in 2006-2007 reading the buisness section of the paper than I am now reading Mish or piggington or whatever ‘bear’ blog you prefer. Back then I kept thinking, “I dont get it, could everything all my economic’s teachers in college taught me be totally wrong???” and “How the hell am I the only one who isnt making a million dollars a year? Everyone seems to have so frakin much money. How do they do it??”

Now I read the news and while not happy news, it atleast confirms that I didnt waste those years in college and that the professors were not lying to me. Plus it serves as a nice bullwark against those ‘happy’ articles in the buisness section.

[DWCAP]

I was far more depressed back in 2006-2007 reading the buisness section of the paper than I am now reading Mish or piggington or whatever ‘bear’ blog you prefer. Back then I kept thinking, “I dont get it, could everything all my economic’s teachers in college taught me be totally wrong???” and “How the hell am I the only one who isnt making a million dollars a year? Everyone seems to have so frakin much money. How do they do it??”

Now I read the news and while not happy news, it atleast confirms that I didnt waste those years in college and that the professors were not lying to me. Plus it serves as a nice bullwark against those ‘happy’ articles in the buisness section.

[DWCAP]

yah I hear yah FLU. CITI just cancelled my favorite card, the whole line went out the window, not just me. It isnt about the credit scores or anything, I was just costing them money and they got sick of paying me to use their card. Now I gotta go get another card, and for damn sure it wont be with them after all the crap they tried to pull on me.

All the big banks are making alot of people angry right now, it is just stupid. Anyone remember that card that was in the media (mish????) that had the 80% interest rate with a couple hundred dollar credit limit? That just has to be a PR nightmare for the entire industry. 80%? DO loan sharks charge that much?

[DWCAP]

yah I hear yah FLU. CITI just cancelled my favorite card, the whole line went out the window, not just me. It isnt about the credit scores or anything, I was just costing them money and they got sick of paying me to use their card. Now I gotta go get another card, and for damn sure it wont be with them after all the crap they tried to pull on me.

All the big banks are making alot of people angry right now, it is just stupid. Anyone remember that card that was in the media (mish????) that had the 80% interest rate with a couple hundred dollar credit limit? That just has to be a PR nightmare for the entire industry. 80%? DO loan sharks charge that much?

[DWCAP]

yah I hear yah FLU. CITI just cancelled my favorite card, the whole line went out the window, not just me. It isnt about the credit scores or anything, I was just costing them money and they got sick of paying me to use their card. Now I gotta go get another card, and for damn sure it wont be with them after all the crap they tried to pull on me.

All the big banks are making alot of people angry right now, it is just stupid. Anyone remember that card that was in the media (mish????) that had the 80% interest rate with a couple hundred dollar credit limit? That just has to be a PR nightmare for the entire industry. 80%? DO loan sharks charge that much?

[Author]

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