[DWCAP]

It is kinda sad it took this long for the major news networks to start with this.

I wonder if they will ever dive into the unemployment numbers as well. It appears people are leaving the work force in droves, a ‘good thing’ or the U-3/6 would still be increasing right now.

Also, anyone notice how the claims unemployment benifits are over 500k for the past two weeks? It is seasonally adjusted down to ‘only’ 480k from an actual number of 530k. Now I understand the purpose of seasonal adjustments, but that doesnt change the fact that an additional 50000 people filed for claims, and prob reduced their spending, that wasnt account for in the offical numbers.

[DWCAP]

It is kinda sad it took this long for the major news networks to start with this.

I wonder if they will ever dive into the unemployment numbers as well. It appears people are leaving the work force in droves, a ‘good thing’ or the U-3/6 would still be increasing right now.

Also, anyone notice how the claims unemployment benifits are over 500k for the past two weeks? It is seasonally adjusted down to ‘only’ 480k from an actual number of 530k. Now I understand the purpose of seasonal adjustments, but that doesnt change the fact that an additional 50000 people filed for claims, and prob reduced their spending, that wasnt account for in the offical numbers.

[DWCAP]

If you really want more inventory, vote and then get others to vote too. Dump the Bullshit mods, the crakerjack tax rebates, and the endless supply of money to the GSE’s. Vote idiot incumbants (of any party) out and stop the house from stacking the deck against you.

That is how you will get more inventory.

[DWCAP]

If you really want more inventory, vote and then get others to vote too. Dump the Bullshit mods, the crakerjack tax rebates, and the endless supply of money to the GSE’s. Vote idiot incumbants (of any party) out and stop the house from stacking the deck against you.

That is how you will get more inventory.

[DWCAP]

If you really want more inventory, vote and then get others to vote too. Dump the Bullshit mods, the crakerjack tax rebates, and the endless supply of money to the GSE’s. Vote idiot incumbants (of any party) out and stop the house from stacking the deck against you.

That is how you will get more inventory.

[DWCAP]

If you really want more inventory, vote and then get others to vote too. Dump the Bullshit mods, the crakerjack tax rebates, and the endless supply of money to the GSE’s. Vote idiot incumbants (of any party) out and stop the house from stacking the deck against you.

That is how you will get more inventory.

[DWCAP]

If you really want more inventory, vote and then get others to vote too. Dump the Bullshit mods, the crakerjack tax rebates, and the endless supply of money to the GSE’s. Vote idiot incumbants (of any party) out and stop the house from stacking the deck against you.

That is how you will get more inventory.

[DWCAP]

[quote=JC]Ha! I know, but really how else do you find any inventory right now? I want to believe that some of that ‘shadow’ will hit sometime in the near future, but I think I am just far too optimistic. Everything is a long shot right now or am I missing something really obvious?[/quote]

What it comes down to then is either you buy something you dont like, you overpay for something, or you dont buy anything. This is like poker in the casinos, the faces in the chairs keeps changing, but the game doesnt. (Person with the best poker face and use of chips wins the game, not the best hand).

Now the problem is the house is against you, not a neutral party.

Basically you dont get more inventory, you either play, or fold. And honestly, playing right now sucks cause forget Aces, people are going to war over 7’s.

[DWCAP]

[quote=JC]Ha! I know, but really how else do you find any inventory right now? I want to believe that some of that ‘shadow’ will hit sometime in the near future, but I think I am just far too optimistic. Everything is a long shot right now or am I missing something really obvious?[/quote]

What it comes down to then is either you buy something you dont like, you overpay for something, or you dont buy anything. This is like poker in the casinos, the faces in the chairs keeps changing, but the game doesnt. (Person with the best poker face and use of chips wins the game, not the best hand).

Now the problem is the house is against you, not a neutral party.

Basically you dont get more inventory, you either play, or fold. And honestly, playing right now sucks cause forget Aces, people are going to war over 7’s.

[DWCAP]

[quote=JC]Ha! I know, but really how else do you find any inventory right now? I want to believe that some of that ‘shadow’ will hit sometime in the near future, but I think I am just far too optimistic. Everything is a long shot right now or am I missing something really obvious?[/quote]

What it comes down to then is either you buy something you dont like, you overpay for something, or you dont buy anything. This is like poker in the casinos, the faces in the chairs keeps changing, but the game doesnt. (Person with the best poker face and use of chips wins the game, not the best hand).

Now the problem is the house is against you, not a neutral party.

Basically you dont get more inventory, you either play, or fold. And honestly, playing right now sucks cause forget Aces, people are going to war over 7’s.

[DWCAP]

[quote=JC]Ha! I know, but really how else do you find any inventory right now? I want to believe that some of that ‘shadow’ will hit sometime in the near future, but I think I am just far too optimistic. Everything is a long shot right now or am I missing something really obvious?[/quote]

What it comes down to then is either you buy something you dont like, you overpay for something, or you dont buy anything. This is like poker in the casinos, the faces in the chairs keeps changing, but the game doesnt. (Person with the best poker face and use of chips wins the game, not the best hand).

Now the problem is the house is against you, not a neutral party.

Basically you dont get more inventory, you either play, or fold. And honestly, playing right now sucks cause forget Aces, people are going to war over 7’s.

[DWCAP]

[quote=JC]Ha! I know, but really how else do you find any inventory right now? I want to believe that some of that ‘shadow’ will hit sometime in the near future, but I think I am just far too optimistic. Everything is a long shot right now or am I missing something really obvious?[/quote]

What it comes down to then is either you buy something you dont like, you overpay for something, or you dont buy anything. This is like poker in the casinos, the faces in the chairs keeps changing, but the game doesnt. (Person with the best poker face and use of chips wins the game, not the best hand).

Now the problem is the house is against you, not a neutral party.

Basically you dont get more inventory, you either play, or fold. And honestly, playing right now sucks cause forget Aces, people are going to war over 7’s.

[DWCAP]

So, is this a tact way of saying there is something to this formula? Cause 17 posts later I still dont see one of the standard ‘it is different here’ rationals being used to discredit this.

Best I can figure, Median SD income is right around 70k (http://www.sandag.org/resources/demographics_and_other_data/demographics/fastfacts/sand.htm)

And average interest rates are right around 5%. (http://signonsandiego.interest.com/)

SO….

70k*4.3466= 304262. Obviously this isnt perfect because interest rates move daily and layoffs/hires effect the job market, but add a +/- 5% so between 290k and 320k seem reasonable?

If so then we could, atleast in theory, compute what an interest rate surge would do to housing prices.

4.75% would =313k
5.50% would =288k
5.75% would =280k
6.00% would =272k

Basically every .25% would be 8k in housing price movement.

[DWCAP]

So, is this a tact way of saying there is something to this formula? Cause 17 posts later I still dont see one of the standard ‘it is different here’ rationals being used to discredit this.

Best I can figure, Median SD income is right around 70k (http://www.sandag.org/resources/demographics_and_other_data/demographics/fastfacts/sand.htm)

And average interest rates are right around 5%. (http://signonsandiego.interest.com/)

SO….

70k*4.3466= 304262. Obviously this isnt perfect because interest rates move daily and layoffs/hires effect the job market, but add a +/- 5% so between 290k and 320k seem reasonable?

If so then we could, atleast in theory, compute what an interest rate surge would do to housing prices.

4.75% would =313k
5.50% would =288k
5.75% would =280k
6.00% would =272k

Basically every .25% would be 8k in housing price movement.

[DWCAP]

So, is this a tact way of saying there is something to this formula? Cause 17 posts later I still dont see one of the standard ‘it is different here’ rationals being used to discredit this.

Best I can figure, Median SD income is right around 70k (http://www.sandag.org/resources/demographics_and_other_data/demographics/fastfacts/sand.htm)

And average interest rates are right around 5%. (http://signonsandiego.interest.com/)

SO….

70k*4.3466= 304262. Obviously this isnt perfect because interest rates move daily and layoffs/hires effect the job market, but add a +/- 5% so between 290k and 320k seem reasonable?

If so then we could, atleast in theory, compute what an interest rate surge would do to housing prices.

4.75% would =313k
5.50% would =288k
5.75% would =280k
6.00% would =272k

Basically every .25% would be 8k in housing price movement.

[Author]

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