[DWCAP]

Should a new house really command a big premium over an ~10 year old house? Serious question. I just dont really understand the facanation with ‘brand new’. There have been tons of reports in the media of problems with ‘new’ houses, remember the whole chinese dry-wall thing? And the community usually has little character or anything yet, as trees are 10 days post homedepot and the grass usually could just be rolled up and resodded somewhere else. You dont get to know your neighbors before they move in, and all so often alot of the infrastructure doesnt exist yet.

I have only been in 1 new development, and it wasnt in SD, so I have little frame of reference on this and could be wrong. But you will have to fix any defects and repaint etc etc when you try to sell anyways, cause when you sell it aint new anymore, so I dont really know what the big deal is.

Anyone care to enlighten me?

[DWCAP]

Should a new house really command a big premium over an ~10 year old house? Serious question. I just dont really understand the facanation with ‘brand new’. There have been tons of reports in the media of problems with ‘new’ houses, remember the whole chinese dry-wall thing? And the community usually has little character or anything yet, as trees are 10 days post homedepot and the grass usually could just be rolled up and resodded somewhere else. You dont get to know your neighbors before they move in, and all so often alot of the infrastructure doesnt exist yet.

I have only been in 1 new development, and it wasnt in SD, so I have little frame of reference on this and could be wrong. But you will have to fix any defects and repaint etc etc when you try to sell anyways, cause when you sell it aint new anymore, so I dont really know what the big deal is.

Anyone care to enlighten me?

[DWCAP]

“dubstantial”

You forgot the ‘M’ before the ‘B’.

😉

[DWCAP]

“dubstantial”

You forgot the ‘M’ before the ‘B’.

😉

[DWCAP]

“dubstantial”

You forgot the ‘M’ before the ‘B’.

😉

[DWCAP]

“dubstantial”

You forgot the ‘M’ before the ‘B’.

😉

[DWCAP]

“dubstantial”

You forgot the ‘M’ before the ‘B’.

😉

[DWCAP]

Somewhere on here is a thread where we discussed a measure kinda like what you are looking for. I think it was originally posted on Yahoo, but i could be mistaken.

Anyways, I used SD’s level (with a 70k median income) and todays rates (~5%) that median prices should pivot right around 310k, give or take. Each adjustment to the rate of .25% gave us an 8k swing in the ‘expected’ median. So a 1% increase from 5% to 6% in rates would give us a ~30k decrease in purchasing power, leading to a ‘expected’ 280k median. Most certainly not 210k. No one challenged the math, so either it isnt too far off or I am the ‘special’ kid, dont really know it, and everyone is just being nice to me.(certainly a possibilty)

This is no where near perfect math. RE prices are effected by SOOOO much more than just interest rates that focus on one or two factors can, and has, led many astray. Just because people cant afford it doesnt mean they dont want it, and doesnt mean they wont find a way to get it. (liar loans anyone?)

But if you are looking for a guide post of, ‘what will interest rates do to housing prices?’ I would start there.

(ill let you do the search for it, I dont feel like digging for it)

[DWCAP]

Somewhere on here is a thread where we discussed a measure kinda like what you are looking for. I think it was originally posted on Yahoo, but i could be mistaken.

Anyways, I used SD’s level (with a 70k median income) and todays rates (~5%) that median prices should pivot right around 310k, give or take. Each adjustment to the rate of .25% gave us an 8k swing in the ‘expected’ median. So a 1% increase from 5% to 6% in rates would give us a ~30k decrease in purchasing power, leading to a ‘expected’ 280k median. Most certainly not 210k. No one challenged the math, so either it isnt too far off or I am the ‘special’ kid, dont really know it, and everyone is just being nice to me.(certainly a possibilty)

This is no where near perfect math. RE prices are effected by SOOOO much more than just interest rates that focus on one or two factors can, and has, led many astray. Just because people cant afford it doesnt mean they dont want it, and doesnt mean they wont find a way to get it. (liar loans anyone?)

But if you are looking for a guide post of, ‘what will interest rates do to housing prices?’ I would start there.

(ill let you do the search for it, I dont feel like digging for it)

[DWCAP]

Somewhere on here is a thread where we discussed a measure kinda like what you are looking for. I think it was originally posted on Yahoo, but i could be mistaken.

Anyways, I used SD’s level (with a 70k median income) and todays rates (~5%) that median prices should pivot right around 310k, give or take. Each adjustment to the rate of .25% gave us an 8k swing in the ‘expected’ median. So a 1% increase from 5% to 6% in rates would give us a ~30k decrease in purchasing power, leading to a ‘expected’ 280k median. Most certainly not 210k. No one challenged the math, so either it isnt too far off or I am the ‘special’ kid, dont really know it, and everyone is just being nice to me.(certainly a possibilty)

This is no where near perfect math. RE prices are effected by SOOOO much more than just interest rates that focus on one or two factors can, and has, led many astray. Just because people cant afford it doesnt mean they dont want it, and doesnt mean they wont find a way to get it. (liar loans anyone?)

But if you are looking for a guide post of, ‘what will interest rates do to housing prices?’ I would start there.

(ill let you do the search for it, I dont feel like digging for it)

[DWCAP]

Somewhere on here is a thread where we discussed a measure kinda like what you are looking for. I think it was originally posted on Yahoo, but i could be mistaken.

Anyways, I used SD’s level (with a 70k median income) and todays rates (~5%) that median prices should pivot right around 310k, give or take. Each adjustment to the rate of .25% gave us an 8k swing in the ‘expected’ median. So a 1% increase from 5% to 6% in rates would give us a ~30k decrease in purchasing power, leading to a ‘expected’ 280k median. Most certainly not 210k. No one challenged the math, so either it isnt too far off or I am the ‘special’ kid, dont really know it, and everyone is just being nice to me.(certainly a possibilty)

This is no where near perfect math. RE prices are effected by SOOOO much more than just interest rates that focus on one or two factors can, and has, led many astray. Just because people cant afford it doesnt mean they dont want it, and doesnt mean they wont find a way to get it. (liar loans anyone?)

But if you are looking for a guide post of, ‘what will interest rates do to housing prices?’ I would start there.

(ill let you do the search for it, I dont feel like digging for it)

[DWCAP]

Somewhere on here is a thread where we discussed a measure kinda like what you are looking for. I think it was originally posted on Yahoo, but i could be mistaken.

Anyways, I used SD’s level (with a 70k median income) and todays rates (~5%) that median prices should pivot right around 310k, give or take. Each adjustment to the rate of .25% gave us an 8k swing in the ‘expected’ median. So a 1% increase from 5% to 6% in rates would give us a ~30k decrease in purchasing power, leading to a ‘expected’ 280k median. Most certainly not 210k. No one challenged the math, so either it isnt too far off or I am the ‘special’ kid, dont really know it, and everyone is just being nice to me.(certainly a possibilty)

This is no where near perfect math. RE prices are effected by SOOOO much more than just interest rates that focus on one or two factors can, and has, led many astray. Just because people cant afford it doesnt mean they dont want it, and doesnt mean they wont find a way to get it. (liar loans anyone?)

But if you are looking for a guide post of, ‘what will interest rates do to housing prices?’ I would start there.

(ill let you do the search for it, I dont feel like digging for it)

[DWCAP]

I disagree with your numbers.

65% of the population owns its own home, but 1/3 or so dont carry morgages. I wouldnt be suprised to find the vast majority of these people bought their houses decades ago, paid them off, and have no intention on moving.
Classic example, my grandparents. They have lived in the same house for nearly 30 years, dont have a morgage, and are not going anywhere. They couldnt give a rats ass what the house is valued at. Hell, they prob wouldnt mind it falling, cause then their property taxes would be lower (no they dont live in CA). I include some people who carry stupidly low morgaes with this group. When you owe 15k on a 250k house, you are in the ‘no morgage group’ when it comes to this.
-I would say, excuding bubble state mentalities who are constant permabulls, no more than 40% of the population REALLY care what their house is worth. Most of them are people who have purchased in the last 10 years or so.

The Bottom 25% totally do care what prices are. These are the subprime folks, the ones who took the worst loans and dumbest risks. They want lower prices so they can afford to buy something.
-I would exclude perhaps the bottom 15%, but that other 10% has dreams.

I wont fight you on the ‘never want to buy crowd’, some people really dont care. (live in a VAN down by the RIVER…) Actually a buddy of mine fits this grouup. He was gifted the house by his adopted father at 24 when he re-married. As long as he can come up with the property taxes and utilitiy bills, the rest is gravy.

So population wise, i’d guess:
45% want it higher,
30% want it lower,
25% dont give a flying rats ass.

Thing is, BUISNESS’s are almost all based on higher housing prices. Home builders and their countless subcontracters, REagents, Brokers and banks, Home repair/updaters, Home depots/lowes, trades workers (carpenters, plumbers etc) all do better with rising house prices. Add in the school districts and government programs dependent upon increasing property tax revienue, and it is by far and away a BUISNESS preference for increasing house prices.

As ususal, follow the money and you will find why our policy is as it is.

[DWCAP]

I disagree with your numbers.

65% of the population owns its own home, but 1/3 or so dont carry morgages. I wouldnt be suprised to find the vast majority of these people bought their houses decades ago, paid them off, and have no intention on moving.
Classic example, my grandparents. They have lived in the same house for nearly 30 years, dont have a morgage, and are not going anywhere. They couldnt give a rats ass what the house is valued at. Hell, they prob wouldnt mind it falling, cause then their property taxes would be lower (no they dont live in CA). I include some people who carry stupidly low morgaes with this group. When you owe 15k on a 250k house, you are in the ‘no morgage group’ when it comes to this.
-I would say, excuding bubble state mentalities who are constant permabulls, no more than 40% of the population REALLY care what their house is worth. Most of them are people who have purchased in the last 10 years or so.

The Bottom 25% totally do care what prices are. These are the subprime folks, the ones who took the worst loans and dumbest risks. They want lower prices so they can afford to buy something.
-I would exclude perhaps the bottom 15%, but that other 10% has dreams.

I wont fight you on the ‘never want to buy crowd’, some people really dont care. (live in a VAN down by the RIVER…) Actually a buddy of mine fits this grouup. He was gifted the house by his adopted father at 24 when he re-married. As long as he can come up with the property taxes and utilitiy bills, the rest is gravy.

So population wise, i’d guess:
45% want it higher,
30% want it lower,
25% dont give a flying rats ass.

Thing is, BUISNESS’s are almost all based on higher housing prices. Home builders and their countless subcontracters, REagents, Brokers and banks, Home repair/updaters, Home depots/lowes, trades workers (carpenters, plumbers etc) all do better with rising house prices. Add in the school districts and government programs dependent upon increasing property tax revienue, and it is by far and away a BUISNESS preference for increasing house prices.

As ususal, follow the money and you will find why our policy is as it is.

[DWCAP]

I disagree with your numbers.

65% of the population owns its own home, but 1/3 or so dont carry morgages. I wouldnt be suprised to find the vast majority of these people bought their houses decades ago, paid them off, and have no intention on moving.
Classic example, my grandparents. They have lived in the same house for nearly 30 years, dont have a morgage, and are not going anywhere. They couldnt give a rats ass what the house is valued at. Hell, they prob wouldnt mind it falling, cause then their property taxes would be lower (no they dont live in CA). I include some people who carry stupidly low morgaes with this group. When you owe 15k on a 250k house, you are in the ‘no morgage group’ when it comes to this.
-I would say, excuding bubble state mentalities who are constant permabulls, no more than 40% of the population REALLY care what their house is worth. Most of them are people who have purchased in the last 10 years or so.

The Bottom 25% totally do care what prices are. These are the subprime folks, the ones who took the worst loans and dumbest risks. They want lower prices so they can afford to buy something.
-I would exclude perhaps the bottom 15%, but that other 10% has dreams.

I wont fight you on the ‘never want to buy crowd’, some people really dont care. (live in a VAN down by the RIVER…) Actually a buddy of mine fits this grouup. He was gifted the house by his adopted father at 24 when he re-married. As long as he can come up with the property taxes and utilitiy bills, the rest is gravy.

So population wise, i’d guess:
45% want it higher,
30% want it lower,
25% dont give a flying rats ass.

Thing is, BUISNESS’s are almost all based on higher housing prices. Home builders and their countless subcontracters, REagents, Brokers and banks, Home repair/updaters, Home depots/lowes, trades workers (carpenters, plumbers etc) all do better with rising house prices. Add in the school districts and government programs dependent upon increasing property tax revienue, and it is by far and away a BUISNESS preference for increasing house prices.

As ususal, follow the money and you will find why our policy is as it is.

[Author]

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