[DWCAP]

Ok, so I have a question. I thought I would try to understand this change in the way we calculate headline inflation. I understand that it was changed in the 90’s and has consistantly reported a lower level of inflation than the older model did. My question is why. Not conspiricy theory or “cause the gov is trying to inflate its way outa the debt”. They had to have better, more financially sound reasons than that, or no one would still be buying securities. So my question is what are these reasons for change? Is this a better gage of real inflation, more timely, less prone to wide swings…….? I understand core inflation, I understand wage inflation. I dont need definitions or anything like that. I took Econ 101. What I am wondering is more of the WHY.

[DWCAP]

Ok, so I have a question. I thought I would try to understand this change in the way we calculate headline inflation. I understand that it was changed in the 90’s and has consistantly reported a lower level of inflation than the older model did. My question is why. Not conspiricy theory or “cause the gov is trying to inflate its way outa the debt”. They had to have better, more financially sound reasons than that, or no one would still be buying securities. So my question is what are these reasons for change? Is this a better gage of real inflation, more timely, less prone to wide swings…….? I understand core inflation, I understand wage inflation. I dont need definitions or anything like that. I took Econ 101. What I am wondering is more of the WHY.

[DWCAP]

Ok, so I have a question. I thought I would try to understand this change in the way we calculate headline inflation. I understand that it was changed in the 90’s and has consistantly reported a lower level of inflation than the older model did. My question is why. Not conspiricy theory or “cause the gov is trying to inflate its way outa the debt”. They had to have better, more financially sound reasons than that, or no one would still be buying securities. So my question is what are these reasons for change? Is this a better gage of real inflation, more timely, less prone to wide swings…….? I understand core inflation, I understand wage inflation. I dont need definitions or anything like that. I took Econ 101. What I am wondering is more of the WHY.

[DWCAP]

Ok, so I have a question. I thought I would try to understand this change in the way we calculate headline inflation. I understand that it was changed in the 90’s and has consistantly reported a lower level of inflation than the older model did. My question is why. Not conspiricy theory or “cause the gov is trying to inflate its way outa the debt”. They had to have better, more financially sound reasons than that, or no one would still be buying securities. So my question is what are these reasons for change? Is this a better gage of real inflation, more timely, less prone to wide swings…….? I understand core inflation, I understand wage inflation. I dont need definitions or anything like that. I took Econ 101. What I am wondering is more of the WHY.

[DWCAP]

Ok, so I have a question. I thought I would try to understand this change in the way we calculate headline inflation. I understand that it was changed in the 90’s and has consistantly reported a lower level of inflation than the older model did. My question is why. Not conspiricy theory or “cause the gov is trying to inflate its way outa the debt”. They had to have better, more financially sound reasons than that, or no one would still be buying securities. So my question is what are these reasons for change? Is this a better gage of real inflation, more timely, less prone to wide swings…….? I understand core inflation, I understand wage inflation. I dont need definitions or anything like that. I took Econ 101. What I am wondering is more of the WHY.

[DWCAP]

SD R,

Of course it makes sense. I tend to agree with you. I am one of those who you refer to as were in High school in the early 90’s recession, cept it was more like grade school for me. I can barley remember the Bush#1/Clinton#1 debates, never mind the gas lines of the 70’s, I wasn’t born then. The only experience I have with true economic pain is from talking to my grandparents. They were farmers in the Depression, barley holding onto the farm. My grandma tells stories about how all the women traded grain sacks after the planting to get the same paterns so they could make clothes for the kids. Do you really think anyone wants to clothes their kids in grain sacks? But people make do.
I understand your point. I am worried about a small recession like the 1990’s today. I dont know how well we will stand it. I can see us so over leveraged and unable to cope that your worst fears start showing up. However I am young and an optimist and I feel we will avoid that, but I cant be certain. I wasnt trying to disavow any worry or fear. That is healthy, and needed.
My point was only that too many people, especially in our government or the special interest groups that think for it, use the worst case questions you listed to prod people into doing some quick fix that will just make it worse in the future. Look at this stimulus they are passing. 150-200Billion in wasted debt. My generation is gonna have to pay that back, plus interest. That is $$ that could do alot of good, but instead it is being wasted for a feel good election year giveaway to keep the same useless politicians in office. Why do we have a FED, FDIC, FBI, Fanny/Freddie and the myrid of other regulatory agencies if they wont protect us from the worst asset bubble in modern history? Not lame prosicution’s 3-5 years afterwards, but real regulation, where you look the corrupt _______ (insert job title) in the face and say “NO” before the fact. That is what I was trying to point out. Fear, especially mass fear, can make people do stupid things. Questions like “do you want….(bad thing)…or….(very bad thing) well then do as I say” have been used too many times in the worst of ways.
So we spin the merry-go-round on more time and delay the day the bill collector shows up. This is a much more likely way to get the date you fear so much. I dont want pain, I dont want suffering. I know damn well that everyone’s job can be lost. I dont want people on the streets or kids who can only afford to eat at school and go to bed hungry. All that can and does happen. I am not kidding myself. But I also want to settle the tab now, instead of later, because what I really dont want to do is clothe my kid in grain sacks.

[DWCAP]

SD R,

Of course it makes sense. I tend to agree with you. I am one of those who you refer to as were in High school in the early 90’s recession, cept it was more like grade school for me. I can barley remember the Bush#1/Clinton#1 debates, never mind the gas lines of the 70’s, I wasn’t born then. The only experience I have with true economic pain is from talking to my grandparents. They were farmers in the Depression, barley holding onto the farm. My grandma tells stories about how all the women traded grain sacks after the planting to get the same paterns so they could make clothes for the kids. Do you really think anyone wants to clothes their kids in grain sacks? But people make do.
I understand your point. I am worried about a small recession like the 1990’s today. I dont know how well we will stand it. I can see us so over leveraged and unable to cope that your worst fears start showing up. However I am young and an optimist and I feel we will avoid that, but I cant be certain. I wasnt trying to disavow any worry or fear. That is healthy, and needed.
My point was only that too many people, especially in our government or the special interest groups that think for it, use the worst case questions you listed to prod people into doing some quick fix that will just make it worse in the future. Look at this stimulus they are passing. 150-200Billion in wasted debt. My generation is gonna have to pay that back, plus interest. That is $$ that could do alot of good, but instead it is being wasted for a feel good election year giveaway to keep the same useless politicians in office. Why do we have a FED, FDIC, FBI, Fanny/Freddie and the myrid of other regulatory agencies if they wont protect us from the worst asset bubble in modern history? Not lame prosicution’s 3-5 years afterwards, but real regulation, where you look the corrupt _______ (insert job title) in the face and say “NO” before the fact. That is what I was trying to point out. Fear, especially mass fear, can make people do stupid things. Questions like “do you want….(bad thing)…or….(very bad thing) well then do as I say” have been used too many times in the worst of ways.
So we spin the merry-go-round on more time and delay the day the bill collector shows up. This is a much more likely way to get the date you fear so much. I dont want pain, I dont want suffering. I know damn well that everyone’s job can be lost. I dont want people on the streets or kids who can only afford to eat at school and go to bed hungry. All that can and does happen. I am not kidding myself. But I also want to settle the tab now, instead of later, because what I really dont want to do is clothe my kid in grain sacks.

[DWCAP]

SD R,

Of course it makes sense. I tend to agree with you. I am one of those who you refer to as were in High school in the early 90’s recession, cept it was more like grade school for me. I can barley remember the Bush#1/Clinton#1 debates, never mind the gas lines of the 70’s, I wasn’t born then. The only experience I have with true economic pain is from talking to my grandparents. They were farmers in the Depression, barley holding onto the farm. My grandma tells stories about how all the women traded grain sacks after the planting to get the same paterns so they could make clothes for the kids. Do you really think anyone wants to clothes their kids in grain sacks? But people make do.
I understand your point. I am worried about a small recession like the 1990’s today. I dont know how well we will stand it. I can see us so over leveraged and unable to cope that your worst fears start showing up. However I am young and an optimist and I feel we will avoid that, but I cant be certain. I wasnt trying to disavow any worry or fear. That is healthy, and needed.
My point was only that too many people, especially in our government or the special interest groups that think for it, use the worst case questions you listed to prod people into doing some quick fix that will just make it worse in the future. Look at this stimulus they are passing. 150-200Billion in wasted debt. My generation is gonna have to pay that back, plus interest. That is $$ that could do alot of good, but instead it is being wasted for a feel good election year giveaway to keep the same useless politicians in office. Why do we have a FED, FDIC, FBI, Fanny/Freddie and the myrid of other regulatory agencies if they wont protect us from the worst asset bubble in modern history? Not lame prosicution’s 3-5 years afterwards, but real regulation, where you look the corrupt _______ (insert job title) in the face and say “NO” before the fact. That is what I was trying to point out. Fear, especially mass fear, can make people do stupid things. Questions like “do you want….(bad thing)…or….(very bad thing) well then do as I say” have been used too many times in the worst of ways.
So we spin the merry-go-round on more time and delay the day the bill collector shows up. This is a much more likely way to get the date you fear so much. I dont want pain, I dont want suffering. I know damn well that everyone’s job can be lost. I dont want people on the streets or kids who can only afford to eat at school and go to bed hungry. All that can and does happen. I am not kidding myself. But I also want to settle the tab now, instead of later, because what I really dont want to do is clothe my kid in grain sacks.

[DWCAP]

SD R,

Of course it makes sense. I tend to agree with you. I am one of those who you refer to as were in High school in the early 90’s recession, cept it was more like grade school for me. I can barley remember the Bush#1/Clinton#1 debates, never mind the gas lines of the 70’s, I wasn’t born then. The only experience I have with true economic pain is from talking to my grandparents. They were farmers in the Depression, barley holding onto the farm. My grandma tells stories about how all the women traded grain sacks after the planting to get the same paterns so they could make clothes for the kids. Do you really think anyone wants to clothes their kids in grain sacks? But people make do.
I understand your point. I am worried about a small recession like the 1990’s today. I dont know how well we will stand it. I can see us so over leveraged and unable to cope that your worst fears start showing up. However I am young and an optimist and I feel we will avoid that, but I cant be certain. I wasnt trying to disavow any worry or fear. That is healthy, and needed.
My point was only that too many people, especially in our government or the special interest groups that think for it, use the worst case questions you listed to prod people into doing some quick fix that will just make it worse in the future. Look at this stimulus they are passing. 150-200Billion in wasted debt. My generation is gonna have to pay that back, plus interest. That is $$ that could do alot of good, but instead it is being wasted for a feel good election year giveaway to keep the same useless politicians in office. Why do we have a FED, FDIC, FBI, Fanny/Freddie and the myrid of other regulatory agencies if they wont protect us from the worst asset bubble in modern history? Not lame prosicution’s 3-5 years afterwards, but real regulation, where you look the corrupt _______ (insert job title) in the face and say “NO” before the fact. That is what I was trying to point out. Fear, especially mass fear, can make people do stupid things. Questions like “do you want….(bad thing)…or….(very bad thing) well then do as I say” have been used too many times in the worst of ways.
So we spin the merry-go-round on more time and delay the day the bill collector shows up. This is a much more likely way to get the date you fear so much. I dont want pain, I dont want suffering. I know damn well that everyone’s job can be lost. I dont want people on the streets or kids who can only afford to eat at school and go to bed hungry. All that can and does happen. I am not kidding myself. But I also want to settle the tab now, instead of later, because what I really dont want to do is clothe my kid in grain sacks.

[DWCAP]

SD R,

Of course it makes sense. I tend to agree with you. I am one of those who you refer to as were in High school in the early 90’s recession, cept it was more like grade school for me. I can barley remember the Bush#1/Clinton#1 debates, never mind the gas lines of the 70’s, I wasn’t born then. The only experience I have with true economic pain is from talking to my grandparents. They were farmers in the Depression, barley holding onto the farm. My grandma tells stories about how all the women traded grain sacks after the planting to get the same paterns so they could make clothes for the kids. Do you really think anyone wants to clothes their kids in grain sacks? But people make do.
I understand your point. I am worried about a small recession like the 1990’s today. I dont know how well we will stand it. I can see us so over leveraged and unable to cope that your worst fears start showing up. However I am young and an optimist and I feel we will avoid that, but I cant be certain. I wasnt trying to disavow any worry or fear. That is healthy, and needed.
My point was only that too many people, especially in our government or the special interest groups that think for it, use the worst case questions you listed to prod people into doing some quick fix that will just make it worse in the future. Look at this stimulus they are passing. 150-200Billion in wasted debt. My generation is gonna have to pay that back, plus interest. That is $$ that could do alot of good, but instead it is being wasted for a feel good election year giveaway to keep the same useless politicians in office. Why do we have a FED, FDIC, FBI, Fanny/Freddie and the myrid of other regulatory agencies if they wont protect us from the worst asset bubble in modern history? Not lame prosicution’s 3-5 years afterwards, but real regulation, where you look the corrupt _______ (insert job title) in the face and say “NO” before the fact. That is what I was trying to point out. Fear, especially mass fear, can make people do stupid things. Questions like “do you want….(bad thing)…or….(very bad thing) well then do as I say” have been used too many times in the worst of ways.
So we spin the merry-go-round on more time and delay the day the bill collector shows up. This is a much more likely way to get the date you fear so much. I dont want pain, I dont want suffering. I know damn well that everyone’s job can be lost. I dont want people on the streets or kids who can only afford to eat at school and go to bed hungry. All that can and does happen. I am not kidding myself. But I also want to settle the tab now, instead of later, because what I really dont want to do is clothe my kid in grain sacks.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

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