[DWCAP]

[quote=sdrealtor]

Sea Smoke is a high end cult Pinot producer and a private winery. Can only buy their top wines being on their list for years. They are amazing if you ever get a chance. My friend is a big time wine collector so I regularly get to enjoy wines I could or would never buy myself.
[/quote]

My understanding is that the lead winemaker for Sea Smoke is now at Foley, and that the expectations are for Foley quality to rise as Sea Smoke falls (some).
But this is mostly hearsey.

[DWCAP]

[quote=sdrealtor]

Sea Smoke is a high end cult Pinot producer and a private winery. Can only buy their top wines being on their list for years. They are amazing if you ever get a chance. My friend is a big time wine collector so I regularly get to enjoy wines I could or would never buy myself.
[/quote]

My understanding is that the lead winemaker for Sea Smoke is now at Foley, and that the expectations are for Foley quality to rise as Sea Smoke falls (some).
But this is mostly hearsey.

[DWCAP]

[quote=qwerty007]If the government is not solely concerned with the propping up home prices, so much as the effect it has on the overall economy,[/quote]

There is where your post has a problem. I agree they shouldnt care, but they have directly linked home prices with economic gain, if only in their minds (let alone their policies), and will do anything to protect and continue the gains observed.

[DWCAP]

[quote=qwerty007]If the government is not solely concerned with the propping up home prices, so much as the effect it has on the overall economy,[/quote]

There is where your post has a problem. I agree they shouldnt care, but they have directly linked home prices with economic gain, if only in their minds (let alone their policies), and will do anything to protect and continue the gains observed.

[DWCAP]

[quote=qwerty007]If the government is not solely concerned with the propping up home prices, so much as the effect it has on the overall economy,[/quote]

There is where your post has a problem. I agree they shouldnt care, but they have directly linked home prices with economic gain, if only in their minds (let alone their policies), and will do anything to protect and continue the gains observed.

[DWCAP]

[quote=qwerty007]If the government is not solely concerned with the propping up home prices, so much as the effect it has on the overall economy,[/quote]

There is where your post has a problem. I agree they shouldnt care, but they have directly linked home prices with economic gain, if only in their minds (let alone their policies), and will do anything to protect and continue the gains observed.

[DWCAP]

[quote=qwerty007]If the government is not solely concerned with the propping up home prices, so much as the effect it has on the overall economy,[/quote]

There is where your post has a problem. I agree they shouldnt care, but they have directly linked home prices with economic gain, if only in their minds (let alone their policies), and will do anything to protect and continue the gains observed.

[DWCAP]

[quote=garysears]
The big surprise to me is the fact that rates are about the same as they were when the Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS. That can’t be expected to last, but what do I know?[/quote]

I dont know. I think rates will be low for a long long time.

1) Everyone assumes Bernake means 4-6 months when he says ‘exceptionally long time’. I think he means ~12 months, from now. Seriously. he may do some lame ass quarter point move, or just go to a .25 but he will wait WAY TOO LONG on this one, just like last time. The fed has learned nothing, and is taking a very narrow view of their responsibilities of ensuring maximum GPD/employment at a minimum of inflation. If they set off a bubble that causes problems in 2020, well then we can cross that bridge when we get there.

2) Fiat currencies are just compared to each other. The Euro was suppose to be the other reserve currency last year, now look at it. China is in bubble mode and people know it. Yen is going for 3 decades of blah, 2 just wasnt enough. Resource minors like Aus, Brazil, NZ, Canada rely on exports to bubble China, and will go with them. Plus 2-3 have their own bubbles as well right now.
We all hate what they are doing to the dollar, but everyone is doing it. The USA has the best understood problems in the world, and that is what is making it ‘safe’. We fear the unknown more than the known.

3) The imbalances of the 2001-2008 world are still in place. China still export dependent. Euro still politically weak and fragmented. OPEC still raking in dough with no were to go with all their oil dollars. Uncle sam still delusional that deficit spending doesnt have to be paid back.

4) Banks can borrow at 0%, buy treasuries at 4%, and do nothing making 4%. Or they can take risks, and make 5% (minus losses). What one do you think they are gonna do?
And when they load up on treasures, then what? Do you think the FED is gonna raise rates and kill the banks profit margines and capital ratios as their 4% bonds loose value? That uncle sam will stop being willing to loose money on fannie/freddie? I dont.

[DWCAP]

[quote=garysears]
The big surprise to me is the fact that rates are about the same as they were when the Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS. That can’t be expected to last, but what do I know?[/quote]

I dont know. I think rates will be low for a long long time.

1) Everyone assumes Bernake means 4-6 months when he says ‘exceptionally long time’. I think he means ~12 months, from now. Seriously. he may do some lame ass quarter point move, or just go to a .25 but he will wait WAY TOO LONG on this one, just like last time. The fed has learned nothing, and is taking a very narrow view of their responsibilities of ensuring maximum GPD/employment at a minimum of inflation. If they set off a bubble that causes problems in 2020, well then we can cross that bridge when we get there.

2) Fiat currencies are just compared to each other. The Euro was suppose to be the other reserve currency last year, now look at it. China is in bubble mode and people know it. Yen is going for 3 decades of blah, 2 just wasnt enough. Resource minors like Aus, Brazil, NZ, Canada rely on exports to bubble China, and will go with them. Plus 2-3 have their own bubbles as well right now.
We all hate what they are doing to the dollar, but everyone is doing it. The USA has the best understood problems in the world, and that is what is making it ‘safe’. We fear the unknown more than the known.

3) The imbalances of the 2001-2008 world are still in place. China still export dependent. Euro still politically weak and fragmented. OPEC still raking in dough with no were to go with all their oil dollars. Uncle sam still delusional that deficit spending doesnt have to be paid back.

4) Banks can borrow at 0%, buy treasuries at 4%, and do nothing making 4%. Or they can take risks, and make 5% (minus losses). What one do you think they are gonna do?
And when they load up on treasures, then what? Do you think the FED is gonna raise rates and kill the banks profit margines and capital ratios as their 4% bonds loose value? That uncle sam will stop being willing to loose money on fannie/freddie? I dont.

[DWCAP]

[quote=garysears]
The big surprise to me is the fact that rates are about the same as they were when the Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS. That can’t be expected to last, but what do I know?[/quote]

I dont know. I think rates will be low for a long long time.

1) Everyone assumes Bernake means 4-6 months when he says ‘exceptionally long time’. I think he means ~12 months, from now. Seriously. he may do some lame ass quarter point move, or just go to a .25 but he will wait WAY TOO LONG on this one, just like last time. The fed has learned nothing, and is taking a very narrow view of their responsibilities of ensuring maximum GPD/employment at a minimum of inflation. If they set off a bubble that causes problems in 2020, well then we can cross that bridge when we get there.

2) Fiat currencies are just compared to each other. The Euro was suppose to be the other reserve currency last year, now look at it. China is in bubble mode and people know it. Yen is going for 3 decades of blah, 2 just wasnt enough. Resource minors like Aus, Brazil, NZ, Canada rely on exports to bubble China, and will go with them. Plus 2-3 have their own bubbles as well right now.
We all hate what they are doing to the dollar, but everyone is doing it. The USA has the best understood problems in the world, and that is what is making it ‘safe’. We fear the unknown more than the known.

3) The imbalances of the 2001-2008 world are still in place. China still export dependent. Euro still politically weak and fragmented. OPEC still raking in dough with no were to go with all their oil dollars. Uncle sam still delusional that deficit spending doesnt have to be paid back.

4) Banks can borrow at 0%, buy treasuries at 4%, and do nothing making 4%. Or they can take risks, and make 5% (minus losses). What one do you think they are gonna do?
And when they load up on treasures, then what? Do you think the FED is gonna raise rates and kill the banks profit margines and capital ratios as their 4% bonds loose value? That uncle sam will stop being willing to loose money on fannie/freddie? I dont.

[DWCAP]

[quote=garysears]
The big surprise to me is the fact that rates are about the same as they were when the Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS. That can’t be expected to last, but what do I know?[/quote]

I dont know. I think rates will be low for a long long time.

1) Everyone assumes Bernake means 4-6 months when he says ‘exceptionally long time’. I think he means ~12 months, from now. Seriously. he may do some lame ass quarter point move, or just go to a .25 but he will wait WAY TOO LONG on this one, just like last time. The fed has learned nothing, and is taking a very narrow view of their responsibilities of ensuring maximum GPD/employment at a minimum of inflation. If they set off a bubble that causes problems in 2020, well then we can cross that bridge when we get there.

2) Fiat currencies are just compared to each other. The Euro was suppose to be the other reserve currency last year, now look at it. China is in bubble mode and people know it. Yen is going for 3 decades of blah, 2 just wasnt enough. Resource minors like Aus, Brazil, NZ, Canada rely on exports to bubble China, and will go with them. Plus 2-3 have their own bubbles as well right now.
We all hate what they are doing to the dollar, but everyone is doing it. The USA has the best understood problems in the world, and that is what is making it ‘safe’. We fear the unknown more than the known.

3) The imbalances of the 2001-2008 world are still in place. China still export dependent. Euro still politically weak and fragmented. OPEC still raking in dough with no were to go with all their oil dollars. Uncle sam still delusional that deficit spending doesnt have to be paid back.

4) Banks can borrow at 0%, buy treasuries at 4%, and do nothing making 4%. Or they can take risks, and make 5% (minus losses). What one do you think they are gonna do?
And when they load up on treasures, then what? Do you think the FED is gonna raise rates and kill the banks profit margines and capital ratios as their 4% bonds loose value? That uncle sam will stop being willing to loose money on fannie/freddie? I dont.

[DWCAP]

[quote=garysears]
The big surprise to me is the fact that rates are about the same as they were when the Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS. That can’t be expected to last, but what do I know?[/quote]

I dont know. I think rates will be low for a long long time.

1) Everyone assumes Bernake means 4-6 months when he says ‘exceptionally long time’. I think he means ~12 months, from now. Seriously. he may do some lame ass quarter point move, or just go to a .25 but he will wait WAY TOO LONG on this one, just like last time. The fed has learned nothing, and is taking a very narrow view of their responsibilities of ensuring maximum GPD/employment at a minimum of inflation. If they set off a bubble that causes problems in 2020, well then we can cross that bridge when we get there.

2) Fiat currencies are just compared to each other. The Euro was suppose to be the other reserve currency last year, now look at it. China is in bubble mode and people know it. Yen is going for 3 decades of blah, 2 just wasnt enough. Resource minors like Aus, Brazil, NZ, Canada rely on exports to bubble China, and will go with them. Plus 2-3 have their own bubbles as well right now.
We all hate what they are doing to the dollar, but everyone is doing it. The USA has the best understood problems in the world, and that is what is making it ‘safe’. We fear the unknown more than the known.

3) The imbalances of the 2001-2008 world are still in place. China still export dependent. Euro still politically weak and fragmented. OPEC still raking in dough with no were to go with all their oil dollars. Uncle sam still delusional that deficit spending doesnt have to be paid back.

4) Banks can borrow at 0%, buy treasuries at 4%, and do nothing making 4%. Or they can take risks, and make 5% (minus losses). What one do you think they are gonna do?
And when they load up on treasures, then what? Do you think the FED is gonna raise rates and kill the banks profit margines and capital ratios as their 4% bonds loose value? That uncle sam will stop being willing to loose money on fannie/freddie? I dont.

[DWCAP]

Dave,

I think that depends upon the woman he is cheating on. I have had more than one oppertunity to cheat in my life (on my GF’s) and never have. Usually because I didnt need nor want the drama it would eventually cause in my life. Your sinario basicially is just a ‘without all the drama, would you…’ question.

Having said that there has been two women in my life who so fully consumed me that even though I was presented with the oppertunity to in both relationships, I never even considered it. With them, I was that 5%. With the others, I was the 50%. I think the ratios you give are a testement to how many people marry for love, marry for convience (social pressure) or marry for necessity (shotgun wedding 2010); and not a refelection of male personalities per se.

(please dont take this as a ‘blame the wife’ post, it most certainly isnt. its a ‘You dumbass, you married the wrong woman post.)

[DWCAP]

Dave,

I think that depends upon the woman he is cheating on. I have had more than one oppertunity to cheat in my life (on my GF’s) and never have. Usually because I didnt need nor want the drama it would eventually cause in my life. Your sinario basicially is just a ‘without all the drama, would you…’ question.

Having said that there has been two women in my life who so fully consumed me that even though I was presented with the oppertunity to in both relationships, I never even considered it. With them, I was that 5%. With the others, I was the 50%. I think the ratios you give are a testement to how many people marry for love, marry for convience (social pressure) or marry for necessity (shotgun wedding 2010); and not a refelection of male personalities per se.

(please dont take this as a ‘blame the wife’ post, it most certainly isnt. its a ‘You dumbass, you married the wrong woman post.)

[DWCAP]

Dave,

I think that depends upon the woman he is cheating on. I have had more than one oppertunity to cheat in my life (on my GF’s) and never have. Usually because I didnt need nor want the drama it would eventually cause in my life. Your sinario basicially is just a ‘without all the drama, would you…’ question.

Having said that there has been two women in my life who so fully consumed me that even though I was presented with the oppertunity to in both relationships, I never even considered it. With them, I was that 5%. With the others, I was the 50%. I think the ratios you give are a testement to how many people marry for love, marry for convience (social pressure) or marry for necessity (shotgun wedding 2010); and not a refelection of male personalities per se.

(please dont take this as a ‘blame the wife’ post, it most certainly isnt. its a ‘You dumbass, you married the wrong woman post.)

[Author]

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