[DWCAP]

At least they finally have a number on the “Shadow Inventory”. 700k homes owned by banks but not on a MLS. Remember when we use to debate about the existance of a shadow inventory in an meaningful way?

This article is also quoteing that as of December 2008 12% of all morgages were atleast 1 month late. Now here in March we have had a crumbling job market and 650k plus new filings for unemployment every week. I just dont see how this wont keep going for a long time if people cant get work. I wonder if we have already hit 15% for March 09.

On a side note, Obama’s plan is to refi a house up to 31% of a borrowers income. If the borrower is a two income household, and one income is lost, will the house be refied to 31% of only that one income? That could be a huge swing in payments!

[DWCAP]

At least they finally have a number on the “Shadow Inventory”. 700k homes owned by banks but not on a MLS. Remember when we use to debate about the existance of a shadow inventory in an meaningful way?

This article is also quoteing that as of December 2008 12% of all morgages were atleast 1 month late. Now here in March we have had a crumbling job market and 650k plus new filings for unemployment every week. I just dont see how this wont keep going for a long time if people cant get work. I wonder if we have already hit 15% for March 09.

On a side note, Obama’s plan is to refi a house up to 31% of a borrowers income. If the borrower is a two income household, and one income is lost, will the house be refied to 31% of only that one income? That could be a huge swing in payments!

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Jenelle]Hi everybody,

Thanks for your responses! In case you are curious, I am writing a law review article about how the law has failed to keep up with the proliferation of conversions in the last several years. I’m nearing the end of writing I was just hoping for some personal anecdotal stories to round it out so I appreciate your help 🙂

When I began researching this last Fall I had no idea what a can of worms conversions were. They really can be valuable for the community, when done correctly, but there were so many people in it for a quick buck it’s amazing.

I recall moving into my apartment a couple years ago and signing a disclosure that they might convert at any time. I just can’t even fathom that. If the market were still up they probably would try- kicking out several good long-term tenants- because we’re near the beach where people always want to live. But the building is 40 years old and falling apart around us! It’s fine as a rental because I can call the maintenance guy, which I do, quite often, but I would be irate if I was paying $350,000 for a pile of problems like this.

Anyway, I’ve been lurking on this site for awhile and I really enjoy all your comments. I was living in the central valley at the height of the bubble and recall looking around at the vast plains of identical new houses being built and wondering who the heck is going to live in those?? Where are the jobs to support the people living in those?? The jobs were all in the construction, real estate, etc. And now that area is one of the foreclosure capitals.. I don’t know how no one else could see that coming.

Anyway, thanks again for your help guys!
-Jen [/quote]

The locals saw it. I have alot of buddies from the central valley, and they all wondered out loud, VERY loud, who the hell is buying these things? It was all people from the bay area who were so use to the idea that land is the real value that they paid through the nose to get it. “re never goes down, ill buy now and sell in 3 years when it doubled, blah blah blah….) Well there isnt a land shortage in the central valley and the people who got on that train and stayed on got creamed. Turns out people dont want to drive 2-3 hours each way just to have a big house in an area few actually want to live in, and your house wont double, can fall in value, and isnt an ‘up and coming area’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Jenelle]Hi everybody,

Thanks for your responses! In case you are curious, I am writing a law review article about how the law has failed to keep up with the proliferation of conversions in the last several years. I’m nearing the end of writing I was just hoping for some personal anecdotal stories to round it out so I appreciate your help 🙂

When I began researching this last Fall I had no idea what a can of worms conversions were. They really can be valuable for the community, when done correctly, but there were so many people in it for a quick buck it’s amazing.

I recall moving into my apartment a couple years ago and signing a disclosure that they might convert at any time. I just can’t even fathom that. If the market were still up they probably would try- kicking out several good long-term tenants- because we’re near the beach where people always want to live. But the building is 40 years old and falling apart around us! It’s fine as a rental because I can call the maintenance guy, which I do, quite often, but I would be irate if I was paying $350,000 for a pile of problems like this.

Anyway, I’ve been lurking on this site for awhile and I really enjoy all your comments. I was living in the central valley at the height of the bubble and recall looking around at the vast plains of identical new houses being built and wondering who the heck is going to live in those?? Where are the jobs to support the people living in those?? The jobs were all in the construction, real estate, etc. And now that area is one of the foreclosure capitals.. I don’t know how no one else could see that coming.

Anyway, thanks again for your help guys!
-Jen [/quote]

The locals saw it. I have alot of buddies from the central valley, and they all wondered out loud, VERY loud, who the hell is buying these things? It was all people from the bay area who were so use to the idea that land is the real value that they paid through the nose to get it. “re never goes down, ill buy now and sell in 3 years when it doubled, blah blah blah….) Well there isnt a land shortage in the central valley and the people who got on that train and stayed on got creamed. Turns out people dont want to drive 2-3 hours each way just to have a big house in an area few actually want to live in, and your house wont double, can fall in value, and isnt an ‘up and coming area’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Jenelle]Hi everybody,

Thanks for your responses! In case you are curious, I am writing a law review article about how the law has failed to keep up with the proliferation of conversions in the last several years. I’m nearing the end of writing I was just hoping for some personal anecdotal stories to round it out so I appreciate your help 🙂

When I began researching this last Fall I had no idea what a can of worms conversions were. They really can be valuable for the community, when done correctly, but there were so many people in it for a quick buck it’s amazing.

I recall moving into my apartment a couple years ago and signing a disclosure that they might convert at any time. I just can’t even fathom that. If the market were still up they probably would try- kicking out several good long-term tenants- because we’re near the beach where people always want to live. But the building is 40 years old and falling apart around us! It’s fine as a rental because I can call the maintenance guy, which I do, quite often, but I would be irate if I was paying $350,000 for a pile of problems like this.

Anyway, I’ve been lurking on this site for awhile and I really enjoy all your comments. I was living in the central valley at the height of the bubble and recall looking around at the vast plains of identical new houses being built and wondering who the heck is going to live in those?? Where are the jobs to support the people living in those?? The jobs were all in the construction, real estate, etc. And now that area is one of the foreclosure capitals.. I don’t know how no one else could see that coming.

Anyway, thanks again for your help guys!
-Jen [/quote]

The locals saw it. I have alot of buddies from the central valley, and they all wondered out loud, VERY loud, who the hell is buying these things? It was all people from the bay area who were so use to the idea that land is the real value that they paid through the nose to get it. “re never goes down, ill buy now and sell in 3 years when it doubled, blah blah blah….) Well there isnt a land shortage in the central valley and the people who got on that train and stayed on got creamed. Turns out people dont want to drive 2-3 hours each way just to have a big house in an area few actually want to live in, and your house wont double, can fall in value, and isnt an ‘up and coming area’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Jenelle]Hi everybody,

Thanks for your responses! In case you are curious, I am writing a law review article about how the law has failed to keep up with the proliferation of conversions in the last several years. I’m nearing the end of writing I was just hoping for some personal anecdotal stories to round it out so I appreciate your help 🙂

When I began researching this last Fall I had no idea what a can of worms conversions were. They really can be valuable for the community, when done correctly, but there were so many people in it for a quick buck it’s amazing.

I recall moving into my apartment a couple years ago and signing a disclosure that they might convert at any time. I just can’t even fathom that. If the market were still up they probably would try- kicking out several good long-term tenants- because we’re near the beach where people always want to live. But the building is 40 years old and falling apart around us! It’s fine as a rental because I can call the maintenance guy, which I do, quite often, but I would be irate if I was paying $350,000 for a pile of problems like this.

Anyway, I’ve been lurking on this site for awhile and I really enjoy all your comments. I was living in the central valley at the height of the bubble and recall looking around at the vast plains of identical new houses being built and wondering who the heck is going to live in those?? Where are the jobs to support the people living in those?? The jobs were all in the construction, real estate, etc. And now that area is one of the foreclosure capitals.. I don’t know how no one else could see that coming.

Anyway, thanks again for your help guys!
-Jen [/quote]

The locals saw it. I have alot of buddies from the central valley, and they all wondered out loud, VERY loud, who the hell is buying these things? It was all people from the bay area who were so use to the idea that land is the real value that they paid through the nose to get it. “re never goes down, ill buy now and sell in 3 years when it doubled, blah blah blah….) Well there isnt a land shortage in the central valley and the people who got on that train and stayed on got creamed. Turns out people dont want to drive 2-3 hours each way just to have a big house in an area few actually want to live in, and your house wont double, can fall in value, and isnt an ‘up and coming area’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Jenelle]Hi everybody,

Thanks for your responses! In case you are curious, I am writing a law review article about how the law has failed to keep up with the proliferation of conversions in the last several years. I’m nearing the end of writing I was just hoping for some personal anecdotal stories to round it out so I appreciate your help 🙂

When I began researching this last Fall I had no idea what a can of worms conversions were. They really can be valuable for the community, when done correctly, but there were so many people in it for a quick buck it’s amazing.

I recall moving into my apartment a couple years ago and signing a disclosure that they might convert at any time. I just can’t even fathom that. If the market were still up they probably would try- kicking out several good long-term tenants- because we’re near the beach where people always want to live. But the building is 40 years old and falling apart around us! It’s fine as a rental because I can call the maintenance guy, which I do, quite often, but I would be irate if I was paying $350,000 for a pile of problems like this.

Anyway, I’ve been lurking on this site for awhile and I really enjoy all your comments. I was living in the central valley at the height of the bubble and recall looking around at the vast plains of identical new houses being built and wondering who the heck is going to live in those?? Where are the jobs to support the people living in those?? The jobs were all in the construction, real estate, etc. And now that area is one of the foreclosure capitals.. I don’t know how no one else could see that coming.

Anyway, thanks again for your help guys!
-Jen [/quote]

The locals saw it. I have alot of buddies from the central valley, and they all wondered out loud, VERY loud, who the hell is buying these things? It was all people from the bay area who were so use to the idea that land is the real value that they paid through the nose to get it. “re never goes down, ill buy now and sell in 3 years when it doubled, blah blah blah….) Well there isnt a land shortage in the central valley and the people who got on that train and stayed on got creamed. Turns out people dont want to drive 2-3 hours each way just to have a big house in an area few actually want to live in, and your house wont double, can fall in value, and isnt an ‘up and coming area’.

[DWCAP]

I dont think everything they are going is attempting to slow the reversion to the mean. I think half of what they are doing is that. I think the other half is just nonsense to attempt to be seen as if they are doing something. If nobody saw it coming, and no one could stop it, no one is to blaim. If they had seen it coming, and knew how to stop it, then they would be held responsible and tossed from office.

[DWCAP]

I dont think everything they are going is attempting to slow the reversion to the mean. I think half of what they are doing is that. I think the other half is just nonsense to attempt to be seen as if they are doing something. If nobody saw it coming, and no one could stop it, no one is to blaim. If they had seen it coming, and knew how to stop it, then they would be held responsible and tossed from office.

[DWCAP]

I dont think everything they are going is attempting to slow the reversion to the mean. I think half of what they are doing is that. I think the other half is just nonsense to attempt to be seen as if they are doing something. If nobody saw it coming, and no one could stop it, no one is to blaim. If they had seen it coming, and knew how to stop it, then they would be held responsible and tossed from office.

[Author]

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