[DWCAP]

[quote=mcpk]Fair enough. The foot-dragging you’ll note in my reply is that I’m a little reluctant to post the addresses of what I think are foreclosed homes and then be wrong about it. It’s one thing if I’m privately wrong on my dandy little spreadsheet but quite another to be wrong so publicly, especially when I’m basing my assessment of what’s a foreclosure on a limited amount of evidence. But I think it’s reasonable and fair to ask for some addresses.

And I can appreciate the categorization of my little study (probably too strong a description) as potentially “fishy”. I think that a great amount of what’s readily available to us as data is a bit questionable and there’s a ton of spin put on whatever is presented. (This is part of why I appreciate Rich and his insights. Lots of data and little to no spin.) For what it’s worth, I have little interest in spin one way or another and I don’t work in a field even loosely connected to real estate.

How about this – I’ll go through the neighborhood again and revisit the addresses one more time so that my conscience is clear about posting at least some of them. And I’ll also ask a realtor friend to look them up. For the whopping three of us reading this thread, it will be interesting. 🙂 And if I’m wrong about an address or two and someone actually lives there, maybe it will be the motivation they need to turn on their sprinklers and maybe stop selling all their furniture on craigslist.
[/quote]

Cool, thanks for the leg work. And I dont see anything wrong with your methods, I just notice that alot of the time the places that we think are shadow are really just in some kinda RE limbo where they are kinda hard to find in normal searches.

[DWCAP]

[quote=mcpk]Fair enough. The foot-dragging you’ll note in my reply is that I’m a little reluctant to post the addresses of what I think are foreclosed homes and then be wrong about it. It’s one thing if I’m privately wrong on my dandy little spreadsheet but quite another to be wrong so publicly, especially when I’m basing my assessment of what’s a foreclosure on a limited amount of evidence. But I think it’s reasonable and fair to ask for some addresses.

And I can appreciate the categorization of my little study (probably too strong a description) as potentially “fishy”. I think that a great amount of what’s readily available to us as data is a bit questionable and there’s a ton of spin put on whatever is presented. (This is part of why I appreciate Rich and his insights. Lots of data and little to no spin.) For what it’s worth, I have little interest in spin one way or another and I don’t work in a field even loosely connected to real estate.

How about this – I’ll go through the neighborhood again and revisit the addresses one more time so that my conscience is clear about posting at least some of them. And I’ll also ask a realtor friend to look them up. For the whopping three of us reading this thread, it will be interesting. 🙂 And if I’m wrong about an address or two and someone actually lives there, maybe it will be the motivation they need to turn on their sprinklers and maybe stop selling all their furniture on craigslist.
[/quote]

Cool, thanks for the leg work. And I dont see anything wrong with your methods, I just notice that alot of the time the places that we think are shadow are really just in some kinda RE limbo where they are kinda hard to find in normal searches.

[DWCAP]

just trying to upgrade your neighboorhood man, just trying to help. 🙂

[DWCAP]

just trying to upgrade your neighboorhood man, just trying to help. 🙂

[DWCAP]

just trying to upgrade your neighboorhood man, just trying to help. 🙂

[DWCAP]

just trying to upgrade your neighboorhood man, just trying to help. 🙂

[DWCAP]

just trying to upgrade your neighboorhood man, just trying to help. 🙂

[DWCAP]

[quote=AN][quote=kev374]
it’s not a linear scale that way. It’s needs vs wants. The first $15-20k of car may be a *need*, you need decent transport for work etc. But the other $40k is then fluff that can be afforded only if you have all your other more important financial priorities set…savings, retirement, emergency fund, kids college, home paid off, investments etc. etc.[/quote]
You don’t NEED a $15k-$20k car. You can get a decent used civic that runs well for $3k-$4k. So, a $20k car is a luxury. You don’t ever need to buy a new car.[/quote]

I could be wrong, but I thought he was quoting new prices. Like a civic new is about a 20k car, and if you bought it used and only paid 5 then it would be a USED 20k car you got for 5k. It is the NEW 60k car, 30k used, that he is calling a luxery that you need that kinda income for. But again I could be wrong. That is just how I read it.

I dont necessarly agree, it depends on your priorities. If you dont travel, you could use that money on car payments. If you live in middle class neighborhoods instead of trying to move up to the big time, if you dont really like eating/going out, if you dont buy alot of stuff and live minimally… cut any of these and the ability to really afford a luxery car goes up alot. The problem is that we in the USA want our luxery AND everything else too. We have learned to assign high priorities to anything that improves our lives now, not matter how fleeting; and low priorities to things that improve our lives in the long run but take time to accumulate. This is the fundamental flaw we refuse to face as a nation.

[DWCAP]

[quote=AN][quote=kev374]
it’s not a linear scale that way. It’s needs vs wants. The first $15-20k of car may be a *need*, you need decent transport for work etc. But the other $40k is then fluff that can be afforded only if you have all your other more important financial priorities set…savings, retirement, emergency fund, kids college, home paid off, investments etc. etc.[/quote]
You don’t NEED a $15k-$20k car. You can get a decent used civic that runs well for $3k-$4k. So, a $20k car is a luxury. You don’t ever need to buy a new car.[/quote]

I could be wrong, but I thought he was quoting new prices. Like a civic new is about a 20k car, and if you bought it used and only paid 5 then it would be a USED 20k car you got for 5k. It is the NEW 60k car, 30k used, that he is calling a luxery that you need that kinda income for. But again I could be wrong. That is just how I read it.

I dont necessarly agree, it depends on your priorities. If you dont travel, you could use that money on car payments. If you live in middle class neighborhoods instead of trying to move up to the big time, if you dont really like eating/going out, if you dont buy alot of stuff and live minimally… cut any of these and the ability to really afford a luxery car goes up alot. The problem is that we in the USA want our luxery AND everything else too. We have learned to assign high priorities to anything that improves our lives now, not matter how fleeting; and low priorities to things that improve our lives in the long run but take time to accumulate. This is the fundamental flaw we refuse to face as a nation.

[DWCAP]

[quote=AN][quote=kev374]
it’s not a linear scale that way. It’s needs vs wants. The first $15-20k of car may be a *need*, you need decent transport for work etc. But the other $40k is then fluff that can be afforded only if you have all your other more important financial priorities set…savings, retirement, emergency fund, kids college, home paid off, investments etc. etc.[/quote]
You don’t NEED a $15k-$20k car. You can get a decent used civic that runs well for $3k-$4k. So, a $20k car is a luxury. You don’t ever need to buy a new car.[/quote]

I could be wrong, but I thought he was quoting new prices. Like a civic new is about a 20k car, and if you bought it used and only paid 5 then it would be a USED 20k car you got for 5k. It is the NEW 60k car, 30k used, that he is calling a luxery that you need that kinda income for. But again I could be wrong. That is just how I read it.

I dont necessarly agree, it depends on your priorities. If you dont travel, you could use that money on car payments. If you live in middle class neighborhoods instead of trying to move up to the big time, if you dont really like eating/going out, if you dont buy alot of stuff and live minimally… cut any of these and the ability to really afford a luxery car goes up alot. The problem is that we in the USA want our luxery AND everything else too. We have learned to assign high priorities to anything that improves our lives now, not matter how fleeting; and low priorities to things that improve our lives in the long run but take time to accumulate. This is the fundamental flaw we refuse to face as a nation.

[DWCAP]

[quote=AN][quote=kev374]
it’s not a linear scale that way. It’s needs vs wants. The first $15-20k of car may be a *need*, you need decent transport for work etc. But the other $40k is then fluff that can be afforded only if you have all your other more important financial priorities set…savings, retirement, emergency fund, kids college, home paid off, investments etc. etc.[/quote]
You don’t NEED a $15k-$20k car. You can get a decent used civic that runs well for $3k-$4k. So, a $20k car is a luxury. You don’t ever need to buy a new car.[/quote]

I could be wrong, but I thought he was quoting new prices. Like a civic new is about a 20k car, and if you bought it used and only paid 5 then it would be a USED 20k car you got for 5k. It is the NEW 60k car, 30k used, that he is calling a luxery that you need that kinda income for. But again I could be wrong. That is just how I read it.

I dont necessarly agree, it depends on your priorities. If you dont travel, you could use that money on car payments. If you live in middle class neighborhoods instead of trying to move up to the big time, if you dont really like eating/going out, if you dont buy alot of stuff and live minimally… cut any of these and the ability to really afford a luxery car goes up alot. The problem is that we in the USA want our luxery AND everything else too. We have learned to assign high priorities to anything that improves our lives now, not matter how fleeting; and low priorities to things that improve our lives in the long run but take time to accumulate. This is the fundamental flaw we refuse to face as a nation.

[DWCAP]

[quote=AN][quote=kev374]
it’s not a linear scale that way. It’s needs vs wants. The first $15-20k of car may be a *need*, you need decent transport for work etc. But the other $40k is then fluff that can be afforded only if you have all your other more important financial priorities set…savings, retirement, emergency fund, kids college, home paid off, investments etc. etc.[/quote]
You don’t NEED a $15k-$20k car. You can get a decent used civic that runs well for $3k-$4k. So, a $20k car is a luxury. You don’t ever need to buy a new car.[/quote]

I could be wrong, but I thought he was quoting new prices. Like a civic new is about a 20k car, and if you bought it used and only paid 5 then it would be a USED 20k car you got for 5k. It is the NEW 60k car, 30k used, that he is calling a luxery that you need that kinda income for. But again I could be wrong. That is just how I read it.

I dont necessarly agree, it depends on your priorities. If you dont travel, you could use that money on car payments. If you live in middle class neighborhoods instead of trying to move up to the big time, if you dont really like eating/going out, if you dont buy alot of stuff and live minimally… cut any of these and the ability to really afford a luxery car goes up alot. The problem is that we in the USA want our luxery AND everything else too. We have learned to assign high priorities to anything that improves our lives now, not matter how fleeting; and low priorities to things that improve our lives in the long run but take time to accumulate. This is the fundamental flaw we refuse to face as a nation.

[DWCAP]

Also, remember that in most RE markets most movements up or down have the seeds of the next change sown into them in equal magnitude. Or think of it as a big ship that turns slowly, itll take many turns to put it back on course.

What I mean is that we had a RE bubble of gigantic proportions, and have a recession/fall to match.

We had almost no demand last year for houses, and now it is crazy out there with 20 people lined up for a house not even on the market.

It is crazy out there and prices are starting to rise as inventory plumets and interest rates are just plain stupid, and this fall I believe we will have historically low but non stupid (~6%) rates with a balance of inventory on the market inrelation to demand. (itll be brisk, dont think you can window shop forever, it just shouldnt be a frenzy)

I would say that we should have high rates this fall as a correlation to out now low rates, but the government has obviously decided this is unacceptable and will financially rape future generations to make sure it isnt so.

[DWCAP]

Also, remember that in most RE markets most movements up or down have the seeds of the next change sown into them in equal magnitude. Or think of it as a big ship that turns slowly, itll take many turns to put it back on course.

What I mean is that we had a RE bubble of gigantic proportions, and have a recession/fall to match.

We had almost no demand last year for houses, and now it is crazy out there with 20 people lined up for a house not even on the market.

It is crazy out there and prices are starting to rise as inventory plumets and interest rates are just plain stupid, and this fall I believe we will have historically low but non stupid (~6%) rates with a balance of inventory on the market inrelation to demand. (itll be brisk, dont think you can window shop forever, it just shouldnt be a frenzy)

I would say that we should have high rates this fall as a correlation to out now low rates, but the government has obviously decided this is unacceptable and will financially rape future generations to make sure it isnt so.

[DWCAP]

Also, remember that in most RE markets most movements up or down have the seeds of the next change sown into them in equal magnitude. Or think of it as a big ship that turns slowly, itll take many turns to put it back on course.

What I mean is that we had a RE bubble of gigantic proportions, and have a recession/fall to match.

We had almost no demand last year for houses, and now it is crazy out there with 20 people lined up for a house not even on the market.

It is crazy out there and prices are starting to rise as inventory plumets and interest rates are just plain stupid, and this fall I believe we will have historically low but non stupid (~6%) rates with a balance of inventory on the market inrelation to demand. (itll be brisk, dont think you can window shop forever, it just shouldnt be a frenzy)

I would say that we should have high rates this fall as a correlation to out now low rates, but the government has obviously decided this is unacceptable and will financially rape future generations to make sure it isnt so.

[Author]

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