[drunkle]

the we dont need another stinking paris hilton taxes: the rockefellers and morgans are still going strong even after surviving decades of stiff inheritance taxation. elimination of the tax would only amount to a paris hilton entitlement and acceleration of corporate consolidation and control of america.

tort reform: just like inflation, tort reform is a con. medical expenses, insurance costs going up because of “frivolous” lawsuits? no, it’s because those lawsuits that are justified and right don’t and can’t go far enough: merck killing people with unsafe drugs is only fined a few bucks. they immediately turn those costs over on future business. rather than… merck getting sued into non-operation and the persons responsible being barred from working in the industry, thereby allowing competition from new and small independants.

illegal immigration: with a wave of the illegal immigration flag, nationalism and racism are immediately stirred, overwhelming the insect-like attention spans of the american people. immigrant employees, legal or illegal are only a problem now because of all the years of union busting and anti-labor policies.

[drunkle]

the we dont need another stinking paris hilton taxes: the rockefellers and morgans are still going strong even after surviving decades of stiff inheritance taxation. elimination of the tax would only amount to a paris hilton entitlement and acceleration of corporate consolidation and control of america.

tort reform: just like inflation, tort reform is a con. medical expenses, insurance costs going up because of “frivolous” lawsuits? no, it’s because those lawsuits that are justified and right don’t and can’t go far enough: merck killing people with unsafe drugs is only fined a few bucks. they immediately turn those costs over on future business. rather than… merck getting sued into non-operation and the persons responsible being barred from working in the industry, thereby allowing competition from new and small independants.

illegal immigration: with a wave of the illegal immigration flag, nationalism and racism are immediately stirred, overwhelming the insect-like attention spans of the american people. immigrant employees, legal or illegal are only a problem now because of all the years of union busting and anti-labor policies.

[drunkle]

your fat lazy stupid smug kid doesnt deserve anything that you worked for except what clothes and education you can provide him during your lifetime.

republicans are not the only ones who want cheap labor.

[drunkle]

your fat lazy stupid smug kid doesnt deserve anything that you worked for except what clothes and education you can provide him during your lifetime.

republicans are not the only ones who want cheap labor.

[drunkle]

fox *was* the network that did the show The Bachelor with the fake rich guy.

this guy was black. out of the majority of white folks that flip (and scam), they do an “expose” on this guy. yeah, fox is not hypocritical or racist.

[drunkle]

fox *was* the network that did the show The Bachelor with the fake rich guy.

this guy was black. out of the majority of white folks that flip (and scam), they do an “expose” on this guy. yeah, fox is not hypocritical or racist.

[drunkle]

it would be nice if people would stop referring to currency devaluation as “inflation”…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_economic_crisis_in_Mexico

home prices are going down due to contraction of demand/credit. currency devaluation is increasing the absolute cost of homes. but since absolute wages are not being increased by devaluation, homes prices cannot be artificially increased by the same devaluation. they have to be within reach of those who are buying, regardless of devaluation.

ie., accounting for deval, a home is “worth” 500k. but since no one is buying at that price and you have to get rid of it, the home is worth only that which someone is willing to pay. deval or not. calculations that “homes will decrease 20% in 3 years with an additional loss due to inflation will equal 50%” is meaningless. because that assumes that the difference will be taken up by wage increases. which it wont necessarily. the trend is currently for wages to be decreasing due to devaluation, stagnation, outsourcing, automation, etc.

[drunkle]

it would be nice if people would stop referring to currency devaluation as “inflation”…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_economic_crisis_in_Mexico

home prices are going down due to contraction of demand/credit. currency devaluation is increasing the absolute cost of homes. but since absolute wages are not being increased by devaluation, homes prices cannot be artificially increased by the same devaluation. they have to be within reach of those who are buying, regardless of devaluation.

ie., accounting for deval, a home is “worth” 500k. but since no one is buying at that price and you have to get rid of it, the home is worth only that which someone is willing to pay. deval or not. calculations that “homes will decrease 20% in 3 years with an additional loss due to inflation will equal 50%” is meaningless. because that assumes that the difference will be taken up by wage increases. which it wont necessarily. the trend is currently for wages to be decreasing due to devaluation, stagnation, outsourcing, automation, etc.

[drunkle]

what? the bush tax cuts didn’t translate into a 130% raise for you? you must be one of them anti-merican libruls.

[drunkle]

what? the bush tax cuts didn’t translate into a 130% raise for you? you must be one of them anti-merican libruls.

[drunkle]

carmel valley is a nice area. it’s close to town, new in development, good freeway access… but it’s overpriced. cv is the least expensive in ncc? compared to oceanside?

i would say that cv is far more desireable than carlsbad, encinitas, del mar, etc for the given reasons excluding price. being inland is obviously going to affect price so i dont think it’s a far comparison.

given the choice for a very upper middle class family, cv is far and away more attractive than poway, rancho whatever, north tijuana (chula east lake), etc. that should be obvious to anyone. given that, it should stand to reason that cv will hold out longer against the tide than everywhere else. ergo, “flight to quality”, although i’d stand to reason that there is no “flight”, that demand for quality always exists. just that the demand for crap dies as speculation dies and therefore you “see” a relative “flight”.

but as far as market bellweathers are concerned, i speculate that the high end marks the market. that demand for better and better properties is sparked by “move ups”. when the supply of move-ups dwindles/dies, the high end gets hit first. the “cant-move-up-anymore” either stay still or fall down, but like a weak foundation, they no longer support the top.

evidence: median prices. if the bottom dropped while the top stayed up (in terms of sales volume and price), median prices would creep up. more evidence: biggest cuts in current prices are at the top while the bottom is still holding out.

[drunkle]

carmel valley is a nice area. it’s close to town, new in development, good freeway access… but it’s overpriced. cv is the least expensive in ncc? compared to oceanside?

i would say that cv is far more desireable than carlsbad, encinitas, del mar, etc for the given reasons excluding price. being inland is obviously going to affect price so i dont think it’s a far comparison.

given the choice for a very upper middle class family, cv is far and away more attractive than poway, rancho whatever, north tijuana (chula east lake), etc. that should be obvious to anyone. given that, it should stand to reason that cv will hold out longer against the tide than everywhere else. ergo, “flight to quality”, although i’d stand to reason that there is no “flight”, that demand for quality always exists. just that the demand for crap dies as speculation dies and therefore you “see” a relative “flight”.

but as far as market bellweathers are concerned, i speculate that the high end marks the market. that demand for better and better properties is sparked by “move ups”. when the supply of move-ups dwindles/dies, the high end gets hit first. the “cant-move-up-anymore” either stay still or fall down, but like a weak foundation, they no longer support the top.

evidence: median prices. if the bottom dropped while the top stayed up (in terms of sales volume and price), median prices would creep up. more evidence: biggest cuts in current prices are at the top while the bottom is still holding out.

[drunkle]

In a rising market inventory tends to be very thin and buyers more apt to take whatever they can get.

sure, but assuming that there are two equal homes for sale at the same time, the fixer is going to be worth less.

In a falling market buyers want turnkey AND a great price. That is what is selling right now. Fixers arent selling and overpriced palaces arent selling.

isn’t that what i’m saying? you say that buyers want turnkey and a great price, i’m saying that a dump requires an even “greater” price. if a circa 1996 dumpster price *won’t* be offered or even a circa 2000 dumpster, then it wont sell and it’ll simply slide down anyway: “When we hit bottom bargain hunters will swarm the fixers “.

We can express our opinions all we want but that is what’s is happening right now among real rather than “prospective” buyers. When we hit bottom bargain hunters will swarm the fixers in an attempt to be at the absolute bottom. The problem is a fixer is often alot more of a fixer than they bargained for.

i think we’re surely in the middle of discussing sales and marketing theory at this point. while you certainly have real sales to show for, you can’t deny that the prospective buyers, not just bottom bargain hunters (who are more likely than not to be the investor or flipper types anyway) are apt to become real buyers if given the opportunity. that opportunity is “reasonable pricing”, pricing which really still doesn’t exist.

[drunkle]

“a reasonable price alone isnt getting it done these days. crappy houses just arent selling well in this kind of market. W/O the prospect of appreciation people want something turnkey.”

since appreciation is out of the picture for the time being, “reasonable price” will have to reflect that.

i would think that in an appreciating market, a crappy house will still have a smaller price tag than an equal but pristine home given the same time period.

it seems however, that you’re alluding to two different markets; the flipper market and the residence market. “reasonable” is going to mean two different things for those two groups. for either group, “reasonable” is gonna be low for either the depreciating market conditions or for “real”, non speculative valuation.

alot of the people that post up “my wife is hounding me to buy a house, should i?” are in the residence position, people who are willing to take a loss in the short term for ownership. they’re actually looking at the house, the neighborhood, etc and not particularly dollar signs. a crappy house for them that would require work is going to be worth far less simply because they don’t have the connections, the contractors to do the labor cheap/shoddy (edit: if they even have any vague notions of how much the work will cost; ignorance probably leads to exaggeration), not to mention whether or not “crappy” relates to the surrounding area… you’re obviously not going to sell an upscale 2+2+dog a shack in city heights no matter what the price.

[drunkle]

“Sounds good. Yes, seriously, all that, and maybe even pricing it at what the others in the neighborhood have recently sold for, or even lower considering the current downward trajectory of the market, could actually bring in some buyers. ”

right, that’d be the biggest attractor in this or any market; a good price. even if the house is crap and looks it, offering it at a reasonable price is key. “reasonable” is of course subject to market pressures. once you get people’s attention, get them in the door, get a few offers in, you have the leverage to pick, chose and counter (up, of course).

that doesn’t guarantee the owner will be living high on the hog, just means you made a sale…

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