[Doofrat]

And the loss is tax free too (at least until 1/1/2010.)

[Doofrat]

I wouldn’t say we are at the bottom when home prices and and incomes match up, we will only be at the fundamentals, house prices could and probably will (who am I kidding, just look at the graph, of course they will!) drop below the fundamentals before they hit bottom. Look at Rich’s graphs of historical price/income ratios:

http://piggington.com/images/primer/sdpricetoincome.gif

They go well below the historical averages on their way down from even minor ‘bubbles’, I can’t imagine a different outcome this time, except most likely more severe.

It seems like home ownership rates would be a laggy indicator and tough to figure out at this point. How do you know if it’s hit it’s historical average that another wave of foreclosures won’t hit and push it well below the average.

[Doofrat]

I wouldn’t say we are at the bottom when home prices and and incomes match up, we will only be at the fundamentals, house prices could and probably will (who am I kidding, just look at the graph, of course they will!) drop below the fundamentals before they hit bottom. Look at Rich’s graphs of historical price/income ratios:

http://piggington.com/images/primer/sdpricetoincome.gif

They go well below the historical averages on their way down from even minor ‘bubbles’, I can’t imagine a different outcome this time, except most likely more severe.

It seems like home ownership rates would be a laggy indicator and tough to figure out at this point. How do you know if it’s hit it’s historical average that another wave of foreclosures won’t hit and push it well below the average.

[Doofrat]

I wouldn’t say we are at the bottom when home prices and and incomes match up, we will only be at the fundamentals, house prices could and probably will (who am I kidding, just look at the graph, of course they will!) drop below the fundamentals before they hit bottom. Look at Rich’s graphs of historical price/income ratios:

http://piggington.com/images/primer/sdpricetoincome.gif

They go well below the historical averages on their way down from even minor ‘bubbles’, I can’t imagine a different outcome this time, except most likely more severe.

It seems like home ownership rates would be a laggy indicator and tough to figure out at this point. How do you know if it’s hit it’s historical average that another wave of foreclosures won’t hit and push it well below the average.

[Doofrat]

I wouldn’t say we are at the bottom when home prices and and incomes match up, we will only be at the fundamentals, house prices could and probably will (who am I kidding, just look at the graph, of course they will!) drop below the fundamentals before they hit bottom. Look at Rich’s graphs of historical price/income ratios:

http://piggington.com/images/primer/sdpricetoincome.gif

They go well below the historical averages on their way down from even minor ‘bubbles’, I can’t imagine a different outcome this time, except most likely more severe.

It seems like home ownership rates would be a laggy indicator and tough to figure out at this point. How do you know if it’s hit it’s historical average that another wave of foreclosures won’t hit and push it well below the average.

[Doofrat]

I wouldn’t say we are at the bottom when home prices and and incomes match up, we will only be at the fundamentals, house prices could and probably will (who am I kidding, just look at the graph, of course they will!) drop below the fundamentals before they hit bottom. Look at Rich’s graphs of historical price/income ratios:

http://piggington.com/images/primer/sdpricetoincome.gif

They go well below the historical averages on their way down from even minor ‘bubbles’, I can’t imagine a different outcome this time, except most likely more severe.

It seems like home ownership rates would be a laggy indicator and tough to figure out at this point. How do you know if it’s hit it’s historical average that another wave of foreclosures won’t hit and push it well below the average.

[Doofrat]

Ah, I was using the maps and it has a line up the road. Now I finally know what it feels like to make a mistake. 🙂

[Doofrat]

Ah, I was using the maps and it has a line up the road. Now I finally know what it feels like to make a mistake. 🙂

[Doofrat]

Ah, I was using the maps and it has a line up the road. Now I finally know what it feels like to make a mistake. 🙂

[Doofrat]

Ah, I was using the maps and it has a line up the road. Now I finally know what it feels like to make a mistake. 🙂

[Doofrat]

Ah, I was using the maps and it has a line up the road. Now I finally know what it feels like to make a mistake. 🙂

[Doofrat]

So as you can see, Interest rates are a really strong driver in the prices of houses, which is why it was so stupid for people to take on ARMs when rates were at their lowest, the only possible direction for rates to go was up, yet everybody loaded up at the worst possible time. Add to this that regulation was nil and hype was all over the place. These same factors in reverse will drive the prices down for years to come in my opinion. So from this point, 226k looks low when in reality the current prices are still too high.

[Doofrat]

So as you can see, Interest rates are a really strong driver in the prices of houses, which is why it was so stupid for people to take on ARMs when rates were at their lowest, the only possible direction for rates to go was up, yet everybody loaded up at the worst possible time. Add to this that regulation was nil and hype was all over the place. These same factors in reverse will drive the prices down for years to come in my opinion. So from this point, 226k looks low when in reality the current prices are still too high.

[Doofrat]

So as you can see, Interest rates are a really strong driver in the prices of houses, which is why it was so stupid for people to take on ARMs when rates were at their lowest, the only possible direction for rates to go was up, yet everybody loaded up at the worst possible time. Add to this that regulation was nil and hype was all over the place. These same factors in reverse will drive the prices down for years to come in my opinion. So from this point, 226k looks low when in reality the current prices are still too high.

[Doofrat]

So as you can see, Interest rates are a really strong driver in the prices of houses, which is why it was so stupid for people to take on ARMs when rates were at their lowest, the only possible direction for rates to go was up, yet everybody loaded up at the worst possible time. Add to this that regulation was nil and hype was all over the place. These same factors in reverse will drive the prices down for years to come in my opinion. So from this point, 226k looks low when in reality the current prices are still too high.

[Author]

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