[davelj]

Friday’s going to be interesting. We had such a crazy final-hour rally at the end of today that we could actually rally going into the weekend.

On the other hand, lots of traders will be thinking, “There’s a better chance of net bad news coming out over the weekend than net good news, therefore I should lighten up on risk.”

As usual, I have no idea which one’s going to have a greater impact on trading on Friday. Asia’s totally sh*ting the bed, so it’ll be… interesting.

I ain’t no trader man, but as a bear these last few weeks have been fun to watch.

[davelj]

Friday’s going to be interesting. We had such a crazy final-hour rally at the end of today that we could actually rally going into the weekend.

On the other hand, lots of traders will be thinking, “There’s a better chance of net bad news coming out over the weekend than net good news, therefore I should lighten up on risk.”

As usual, I have no idea which one’s going to have a greater impact on trading on Friday. Asia’s totally sh*ting the bed, so it’ll be… interesting.

I ain’t no trader man, but as a bear these last few weeks have been fun to watch.

[davelj]

Friday’s going to be interesting. We had such a crazy final-hour rally at the end of today that we could actually rally going into the weekend.

On the other hand, lots of traders will be thinking, “There’s a better chance of net bad news coming out over the weekend than net good news, therefore I should lighten up on risk.”

As usual, I have no idea which one’s going to have a greater impact on trading on Friday. Asia’s totally sh*ting the bed, so it’ll be… interesting.

I ain’t no trader man, but as a bear these last few weeks have been fun to watch.

[davelj]

I loved this:

***************

Bill Ashmore drove his Porsche Cayenne to Countrywide’s Laguna Niguel office and waited half an hour to cash out $500,000, which he then wired to an account at Bank of America.

“It’s because of the fear of the bankruptcy,” said Ashmore, president of Irvine’s Impac Mortgage Holdings, which escaped bankruptcy itself recently by shutting down virtually all its lending and laying off hundreds of employees.

“It’s got my wife totally freaked out,” he said. “I just don’t want to deal with it. I don’t care about losing 90 days’ interest, I don’t care if it’s FDIC-insured — I just want it out.”

************

Note to self: President of huge, nationwide mortgage company concerned about Countrywide’s ability to survive. Eh, what does he know?

[davelj]

I loved this:

***************

Bill Ashmore drove his Porsche Cayenne to Countrywide’s Laguna Niguel office and waited half an hour to cash out $500,000, which he then wired to an account at Bank of America.

“It’s because of the fear of the bankruptcy,” said Ashmore, president of Irvine’s Impac Mortgage Holdings, which escaped bankruptcy itself recently by shutting down virtually all its lending and laying off hundreds of employees.

“It’s got my wife totally freaked out,” he said. “I just don’t want to deal with it. I don’t care about losing 90 days’ interest, I don’t care if it’s FDIC-insured — I just want it out.”

************

Note to self: President of huge, nationwide mortgage company concerned about Countrywide’s ability to survive. Eh, what does he know?

[davelj]

I loved this:

***************

Bill Ashmore drove his Porsche Cayenne to Countrywide’s Laguna Niguel office and waited half an hour to cash out $500,000, which he then wired to an account at Bank of America.

“It’s because of the fear of the bankruptcy,” said Ashmore, president of Irvine’s Impac Mortgage Holdings, which escaped bankruptcy itself recently by shutting down virtually all its lending and laying off hundreds of employees.

“It’s got my wife totally freaked out,” he said. “I just don’t want to deal with it. I don’t care about losing 90 days’ interest, I don’t care if it’s FDIC-insured — I just want it out.”

************

Note to self: President of huge, nationwide mortgage company concerned about Countrywide’s ability to survive. Eh, what does he know?

[davelj]

This made me laugh out loud (from the above article):

***************

Occupancy is now expected in early 2009, but Saberi said the delay might actually help.

“You’re going to see existing inventory gradually dwindle down over the next 12 to 18 months,” he said. “We’ll be dealing with a better market from the seller’s point of view than we’re experiencing today.”

****************

What planet is this guy on?

[davelj]

This made me laugh out loud (from the above article):

***************

Occupancy is now expected in early 2009, but Saberi said the delay might actually help.

“You’re going to see existing inventory gradually dwindle down over the next 12 to 18 months,” he said. “We’ll be dealing with a better market from the seller’s point of view than we’re experiencing today.”

****************

What planet is this guy on?

[davelj]

This made me laugh out loud (from the above article):

***************

Occupancy is now expected in early 2009, but Saberi said the delay might actually help.

“You’re going to see existing inventory gradually dwindle down over the next 12 to 18 months,” he said. “We’ll be dealing with a better market from the seller’s point of view than we’re experiencing today.”

****************

What planet is this guy on?

[davelj]

The only thing that irritates me about what the Fed is doing right now – providing liquidity, that is – is that the market-based Fed Funds rate has often been below 5% during this liquidity dump. The policy rate is 5.25% and, in theory, there should be some small “penalty” for having to avail oneself of the discount window. Consequently, the market-based Fed Funds rate should be closer to 5.50%. So, while I think it certainly fits the Fed’s job description to provide liquidity via the discount window, it shouldn’t be providing so much liquidity that the market-based Fed Funds rate is 25 bps BELOW the policy rate. This bothers me a little bit.

[davelj]

The only thing that irritates me about what the Fed is doing right now – providing liquidity, that is – is that the market-based Fed Funds rate has often been below 5% during this liquidity dump. The policy rate is 5.25% and, in theory, there should be some small “penalty” for having to avail oneself of the discount window. Consequently, the market-based Fed Funds rate should be closer to 5.50%. So, while I think it certainly fits the Fed’s job description to provide liquidity via the discount window, it shouldn’t be providing so much liquidity that the market-based Fed Funds rate is 25 bps BELOW the policy rate. This bothers me a little bit.

[davelj]

The only thing that irritates me about what the Fed is doing right now – providing liquidity, that is – is that the market-based Fed Funds rate has often been below 5% during this liquidity dump. The policy rate is 5.25% and, in theory, there should be some small “penalty” for having to avail oneself of the discount window. Consequently, the market-based Fed Funds rate should be closer to 5.50%. So, while I think it certainly fits the Fed’s job description to provide liquidity via the discount window, it shouldn’t be providing so much liquidity that the market-based Fed Funds rate is 25 bps BELOW the policy rate. This bothers me a little bit.

[davelj]

CFC will probably go lower – perhaps a lot lower – but it’s an unlikely BK candidate because it does have a franchise with perceived value (“perceived” being the operative word). Consequently, if things got really dicey, my guess is that someone like Chris Flowers would organize a group to recapitalize the company, albeit at a single-digit share price. The trick, whether an investor or depositor, is to figure out which depositories will end up handing the keys over to the regulators and which ones have a franchise – whether in the form of originations or deposits – that’s worth saving from an investor’s viewpoint. CFC has the perception of being something worth saving, although that could change over time…

[davelj]

CFC will probably go lower – perhaps a lot lower – but it’s an unlikely BK candidate because it does have a franchise with perceived value (“perceived” being the operative word). Consequently, if things got really dicey, my guess is that someone like Chris Flowers would organize a group to recapitalize the company, albeit at a single-digit share price. The trick, whether an investor or depositor, is to figure out which depositories will end up handing the keys over to the regulators and which ones have a franchise – whether in the form of originations or deposits – that’s worth saving from an investor’s viewpoint. CFC has the perception of being something worth saving, although that could change over time…

[davelj]

CFC will probably go lower – perhaps a lot lower – but it’s an unlikely BK candidate because it does have a franchise with perceived value (“perceived” being the operative word). Consequently, if things got really dicey, my guess is that someone like Chris Flowers would organize a group to recapitalize the company, albeit at a single-digit share price. The trick, whether an investor or depositor, is to figure out which depositories will end up handing the keys over to the regulators and which ones have a franchise – whether in the form of originations or deposits – that’s worth saving from an investor’s viewpoint. CFC has the perception of being something worth saving, although that could change over time…

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