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August 25, 2006 at 4:13 PM in reply to: David Lereah now says hard landing for some CA and FL #33304
Daniel
ParticipantAha, now it makes sense. Thanks for clearing this up, folks.
ParticipantNice website, that rentslicer.com. But do you know if those prices are asking prices, or transaction prices? It seems to me that either those prices are a bit high, or I’m getting a whale of a deal on my house (which I rent for about 10% less than asking).
August 25, 2006 at 1:10 PM in reply to: 1 year ago — “Real estate guru: Local housing market stable” #33253ParticipantI don’t think prices will remain flat. But I’m very doubtful that Thornberg actually said or meant that. You may think that he said that, but I have seen you putting words in people’s mouths so many times, that somehow I have trouble believing you. I have read many of his reports, and yes, there are some parts where he strikes a more optimistic tone, but he’s still a bear. As an analyst, he pretty much has to weigh all the possibilities (“on one hand…on the other hand”), and present scenarios. Only a fool would predict something with absolute certainty. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of them among either bulls or bears. Thornberg isn’t one of them.
BTW, Thornberg started to be a RE bear as far back as 2002-2003, only to be ridiculed by the inflating bubble afterwards. Somehow I don’t think it’s fair to pick on someone who was ahead of his time, just because you happened to learn about the bubble at the right time.
Finally, even if he DID say that prices were going to flatten out, I’m pretty confident that this outcome would be closer to the mark than your 50% haircut prediction. But it’s pointless arguing now about this. Only time will tell.
August 25, 2006 at 11:36 AM in reply to: 1 year ago — “Real estate guru: Local housing market stable” #33239ParticipantPowayseller: Thornberg’s forecast will likely be much closer to the actual outcome that yours will be…This much I’m pretty confident about.
ParticipantI’m glad they printed this, because I think it’s a real issue nowadays. This is my #1 concern regarding the reliability of supposedly accurate price metrics, such as the CME Case-Schiller index. Anecdotal evidence in SD shows incentives in the 2%-5% range, perhaps even higher for new construction. I’m sure these are not captured in NAR’s data (they don’t even bother to make that claim), but I am afraid they’re not captured in the CME futures, either.
ParticipantPoint taken. I’m not saying it’s for everyone. But I like it a lot. Businesses like it a lot, too. There isn’t much freedom to spit on the sidewalk, but it takes you only half an hour to open up a new business. By most measures of quality of life (education, health, crime, corruption), it’s way up there. Should we do the same here? Definitely not. It’s not in this country’s spirit. But I can still dream of it, can’t I?
Participant“DarylK, what would you advise David to do about the house? Are you planning any layoffs over there or is his job secure?”
Either you didn’t get Daryl’s joke, or I’m not getting yours…
Participant1) Rent
2) Never owned (30 yrs old), although I actually do own speculative land in faraway places (would you have guessed that?)
3) N/A
4) Independent analysis (which, as #7 below shows, was not initially very good)
5) I will buy in the area where I now rent, and probably a house very similar to the one I’m renting. In other words, when I picked a rental, I picked a house where I would actually like to live for several years.
6) N/A
7) I moved to SD in 2003. In retrospect, I should have bought then, but decided that the market looked “rich”, and thought it would roll over. By next year, the bubble was in full swing, and there was no question that it was overpriced. I can afford to buy today pretty much anywhere I want in SD county, but I choose not to.ParticipantSingapore has the best government in the world, bar none. The country is run like a business enterprise.
Participant“I normally check my “Inactive” list on Zip each week”.
Could I ask how you do that? Is there an “Inactive” section on ZipRealty? If so, I haven’t been able to find it yet. Thanks.
ParticipantWow! It’s unreal! Hawk, I hereby nominate your finding for “Best Piggington Post of the Year” award.
ParticipantSince we’re on the “breakeven opportunities” topic, I’d say that Ms. Bloom isn’t doing too bad on her Cape Cod condo. She could do worse in San Diego, I’m sure.
ParticipantIt sounds like the same article from yesterday’s print edition.
ParticipantDavid,
Just my 2 cents: if you can afford it, like it, and feel better that way, by all means, go for it. From a purely financial perspective, I think it’s better to wait. But if customization and other things are important to you, and if you can’t find a rental that you like (although this is really doubtful, you can nowadays rent one-million-plus homes easily), then yes, you should buy. Just keep in mind that, although nobody can predict the future, there are pretty solid signs that prices have further room to fall.
Regarding the insults that went back and forth, I am not going to apologize for what others have written (they should do that). But I would prefer if you didn’t insult back all the regulars here when you are attacked. If someone calls you a moron, it’s only fitting that you respond in kind, but please direct your anger only at those who deserve it. Thanks, and good luck to you.
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