[DaCounselor]

The last 3 sales in the fall in LCV at around the $2 mil mark were all like 3400 or 3500 sq. ft.? Now we have a guy coming in with a $2.1 ask for 2700 sq. ft.? What do you think sdr – it closes at around $2.25 mil? What does that mean for the 3500 sq. ft. big boys on that street this spring – $2.5 mil? When and how does this rocket ride end, we are pulling major G’s.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=phaster][quote=scaredyclassic]Ego inflation is on the rise.[/quote]

so do you think the rise in “ego” is sustainable,… or do you think there is an “ego” bubble?[/quote]

Doesn’t the ego bubble go with the financial bubble?[/quote]

The first time I fully appreciated the Ego Bubble was when I listened to endless Investing Genius commentary at my local gym during the dot.com insanity. I had no idea I had been in the company of so many geniuses until they dazzled me with stories of their investing acumen. About a year later, the conversations avoided investing entirely, and it was back to which brand of protein shake was best. Same thing during the RE bubble about 5 years later.

When Ego Bubbles burst, I call it The Great Humbling. I suspect we’re in for another such event but I have no idea when.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=sdrealtor]Really interested to see what that house ends up going for as it is really the perfect lot to add an ADU and there’s a very good chance the buyer is looking at it that way. Would help to get an idea as to what someone would value a lot like that over and above what the house alone would sell for.

In case anyone is interested this is the house in question

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2878-Avenida-Cereza-Carlsbad-CA-92009/59308886_zpid/%5B/quote%5D

House in question just closed for $2M. Just wow[/quote]

I really have no words at this point.

So now one question is will a bigger Davidson home in LCV close at $2.5 mil in 2022? And why stop there – what about $3 mil for a buffed out jumbo Davidson? Can it happen? LOL as I type this knowing that it’s not impossible. All you need is one person who is going to buy that house no matter what it takes, and that seems to be the mentality.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=gzz]

The decline in spending on travel, entertainment, and the like is temporary, so the “nothing else to spend it on” effect has already diminished and will disappear entirely.

I disagree that we’ll ever get back to pre-COVID levels on a lot of these issues.

I think these broad “fun outside the home” areas that ranges from trips to France to Applebees, will never recover.

______________

Never recover? My math might be bad, but I think Never sounds like a very long time. Never?

In my own experience, and that of my family and social circles, there has been and is an enormous pent-up demand for travel and any variety of outside the home activities. People want to get back to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. A lifestyle comprised of work from home all day, school from home, cook at home every meal, work out at home, movies at home, Zoom calls from home to relatives instead of travel, etc etc etc is not what people desire. At least not the people I know.

So I would disagree, I think we will see a recovery over the coming years.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=ncsd760][quote=DaCounselor][quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.[/quote]

Ok so $1.9 mil for 3,174 sqft on Camino Robledo in LCV.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2320-Camino-Robledo-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712278_zpid/

Decent lot but finishes look verrrrry basic.

$1.9 million tract home. Sdr who built this part of LCV? Not that the builder matters anymore.[/quote]

Shea for the Robledo. KB for the Helecho one.[/quote]

Thanks. Just realized Robledo closed for $405K over list. $405,000 OVER list. That’s Four Hundred and Five Thousand Dollars over list. La Costa Valley.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=DaCounselor][quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.[/quote]

Ok so $1.9 mil for 3,174 sqft on Camino Robledo in LCV.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2320-Camino-Robledo-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712278_zpid/

Decent lot but finishes look verrrrry basic.

$1.9 million tract home. Sdr who built this part of LCV? Not that the builder matters anymore.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]30% appreciation year over year is pretty much in the tank and Im seeing a bunch showing closer to 40%.[/quote]

So my question is how much more appreciation before NCC is not cheaper than Silicon Valley and nice LA neighborhoods? Another 10%? 20% more? Even more than that?[/quote]

I’m no expert but I’d ballpark 100% as to SV, aka current prices in NCC are about 1/2 of comps in SV area. From what I have looked at and what my friends in Sunnyvale and Mountain View say. FWIW which may not be much.

More interesting to me is that the price spiking (generally) is not only a NCC thing, SD thing or CA thing but is national and occurring in many many metro areas at some level and also internationally in many places. This is not an importing of SV refugee issue, something much bigger is going on.

[DaCounselor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.[/quote]

Ok so something on Camino Serbal is going to close at $2 mil now? Wait that’s too low, let’s say $2.25 mil. But why stop there, how about we say $2.5 mil before the year is up? Come to think of it, let’s go with $2.75 mil. Actually, let’s just make it a nice even $3 mil, wtf.

I’m going to need a thesaurus to come up with more adjectives to describe this market.

[DaCounselor]

So were are going north of $1.8 mil in LCV? Can we hit $2 mil this year? Insane.

Re: Apple many engineers are renters, they are way priced out of Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Mountain View, etc.

I do see major value inflation in many metro areas nationwide so I guess we’re not so special here in SD after all?

Can’t imagine how this trend can continue much longer but wtf do I know?!

[DaCounselor]

Funny thing is that the average Apple engineer is probably already priced out of the best North County areas….

[DaCounselor]

Fantastic thread.

I’ve been bullish on SD coastal RE for about 30 yrs and believe for much of that period it’s been a pretty good value. How would I describe it now? I would just plagiarize from you all on this thread who have used the following adjectives:

Stunning
NUTS
Ridiculous
Relentless
Astounding
Skyrocketing
Crazy
Insane
Shocking
Raging

Yeah, that about sums it up.

Also, unsustainable in my view, but when and how will it end? You got me.

It’s a beautiful place with an amazing lifestyle, glad to have my piece(s) of the pie. Share the sad sentiment of families being priced out. Sad to see friends depart for OR, AZ and TX. But like Stovetop Stuffing, I’m stayin’.

Keep the thread going its a good one!

[DaCounselor]

Thanks CAR! We are primarily looking at the newer neighborhoods and LCV is probably where we will end up if we move to La Costa. We are also looking at parts of CV and Scripps. The deal killer on La Costa may be the commute, as my wife is not interested in slugging it out every day to get in/out to clients in the Downtown area.

[DaCounselor]

Yes I can provide the link bearishgirl, here it is:

http://api.cde.ca.gov/Acnt2012/2012GrowthSch.aspx?allcds=37683383733508

I was just following up on your representation where you posted:

“I was referring to the comments made by Piggs that because a portion of these “nonresident students” at LJHS qualified for “free or reduced-price lunches,” they must somehow be inferior in intelligence or test scores to resident-students. Actually, nothing could be further from the truth.”

The test score breakdown from the DoE shows a much lower test score for the socio-economically disadvantaged, so when you said nothing could be further from the truth I was wondering what you base that on? If you could now post your link and also the link that supports your “cream of the crop” statement that would be great – I am trying to compile data on the issue and based on what you are saying I am missing something somwhere.

[DaCounselor]

bearishgirl can you please provide me with a link to the data that supports what you wrote here:

“I was referring to the comments made by Piggs that because a portion of these “nonresident students” at LJHS qualified for “free or reduced-price lunches,” they must somehow be inferior in intelligence or test scores to resident-students. Actually, nothing could be further from the truth.”

As I posted above, the DoE separates API scores and has a line item for socio-economically disadvantaged kids and at LJHigh those kids’ API is much lower than the top groups’. I would like to see your supporting data to the contrary and am also still waiting for your data that shows that the incoming transfer students at the LJ schools are the “cream of the crop”. It would be awesome if you could just provide the data and then I can opt out of this issue – Thanks.

[DaCounselor]

Characterizing CCA as a “lottery” school is technically correct so I take no issue there but I raise the question of what are a kid’s chances of getting in? I have heard but not confirmed a success rate in the range of 90%. If so, that’s my kind of lottery. I have heard but not confirmed that CCA also has a continuity policy and sibling policy so once you are in there is no need to re-apply and your sibs get preference as well. If the above is true, I would not carve this school out of the analysis of LJ v. CV but instead would make the direct comparison. Per the DoE data CCA’s API in ’12 was 917 vs. LJH at 854. Whether someone finds that difference significant or not is up to them. At the middle school level, the DoE show CVM at 974 vs. Muirlands at 913 for ’12. Significant or not is up to you.

With respect to the SDU transfer policies, I make no assumptions and rely entirely on their published catalogue, which can be downloaded quite easily. It says what it says and I know nothing more.

Regarding socio-economically disadvantaged students, I think the data is clear that LJ has a far higher % than CV, which I assume is due to incoming tranfers from transfer program pattern feeder schools. I would expect some degree of higher motivation or at least higher level of parental involvment with respect to kids who are transferring in relation to those who stay put, for the obvious reasons.

I would expect that the transfer students’ performance in general would be higher than if they did not transfer based again on the obvious. However I think the suggestion that LJ has raised these students’ performance to the level of the average “allegedly more motivated” CV student is not borne out by the data, again at the middle and high school levels.

According to the DoE, the “average” CVM student has an API of 974. The same source states that the average API for a socio-economically disadvantaged youth at Muirlands is 793. That is almost 200 points. Significant or not is up to you. At LJH, the socio-economically disadvantaged API is 737 whereas at CCA the average API is 917. Another large difference.

In fairness to LJ I think there is probably data to support that they are raising the scores of transferees and getting better academic performance out of them which is fantastic and the whole point behind the transfer policies. I think the same holds true for CV regarding their small enrollment of disadvantaged students, who at CVM have an API of 844 and at CCA have an API of 840 per the DoE (which still exceed those of their LJ counterparts but not by nearly as much as the “average” CV score)

Overall I would tend to agree with UCGal to also look beyond the numbers based upon your personal situation because the final correct answer is not necessarily related to an average test score or student background data. Nevertheless the scores are what they are and provide an objective source of comparison.

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