Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
DaCounselor
ParticipantI guessed Serbal would close at $3.175 and I’m sticking to it!
What gets me is the Sitio Fresno sale at $2.5 and then the Morera sale at $3.05. Same floorplan, essentially same cul-de-sac area. You would think the guy that bought Morera was a prior bidder on Fresno, so he didn’t put up $2.5. If that’s true, a few weeks later he throws another $500K+ at Morera? I mean I get the finishes are much nicer, however I do like the larger usable lot on Fresno and the pool. Just throw another $500K at it, no problem!
I see a couple of other big boys listed in LCV at $2.4, can’t wait to see how those resolve. Looks like a tiny price reduction on Segovia. Sdr does this most likely mean no bids at the original list? Not even a bid under list?
Participanthttps://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7917-…
Also just noticed the Nueves house must have sold, wonder what he got after just paying $1.8 for it last month.
Also have seen two houses in Santa Fe Trails at around $1.6 mil for 2K sq. ft. just sitting. Not a fan of that neighborhood personally.
The big bomber on Corte Morero in LCV closed at $3.05 mil, looks pretty nice, but $3 mil in LCV, seems like yesterday i was trying to wrap my head around $2 mil there, oh well what’s an xtra mil LOL.
Participanthttps://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2801-…
Looks like the Jacaranda house is re-listed for $1.1 with no takers at $1.35. Terrible location, floorplan and finishes. What is this one pre-pandemic – $850K?
Participant[quote=ncsd760]The prices of condos/attached homes/zero lot line in the area astound me. Is it possible that the lower-end inventory — and I mean *relatively* since these units are closing in on 1mm and above in some cases — hold their ground more than the 4000sf tract homes? I can see demand for a 6 bedroom waning more than I can for a reasonable priced, low-maintenance attached home but also I’m not a realtor/broker and am just running off anecdotes.
For example, something in Summer Hill encinitas or Sea Point Tennis seems like it will be solid longer term even if we have “peaked”, no?[/quote]
Looking at attached vs. detached devaluation during the last crash may provide some insight as to which will fare better if this thing comes off the rails.
ParticipantLOL re Nuences, that is classic! Let’s see what they can get for it. They’ll probably just shrug off the “loss” in any event. Maybe they’ll have to cut the Summer in Europe short and buy their daughter a RAV4 instead of a Range Rover for her Sweet 16. On second thought, no way.
Looks like something happened with this one in LCV as well:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2955-Avenida-Ciruela-92009/home/4083670
Participant[quote=ncsd760]Sitio Lima in LCO closed for 2.8 (bought for 760k) … wonder why Serbal isn’t pending yet on a better lot/street with real upgrades.
Seeing some overpriced homes languish and I think that’s normal and no cause for panic. If Jacaranda was sitting at 999k maybe I’d be nervous but for 1.25 I’d rather take a nicer condo with a less frustrating floorplan/lot.[/quote]
The RP subdivision seems like it’s all over the place regarding pricing. I think that Jacaranda house might have been in the range of $900K pre-COVID? Let’s see what they can get now. I’m feeling like $1.1-something.
There’s another one in there with a recent list-sale-list-price reduction history, not sure why the quick re-list unless it fell out of escrow?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7917-Las-Nueces-Pl-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16710515_zpid/
What I find interesting is how it got bid up $225K yet back on the market they’re dropping the price.
Anyway i think sdr’s stats give a good wider lens on the local market and what’s trending. I still like looking at what’s going on with individual properties though.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]DaCounselor asked if that house was the Canary in the Coal mine. I dont think it was but rather this weeks update could be.
New listings 32 (21) – a nice leap up to where we should be. Surprised it took so long to hit 30 in a week. Much more than we have been getting but in line with what we should be getting.
New Pendings of 13 (32) – this is a very low number and potentially the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Outside of early pandemic lockdown, holiday shutdown the lowest number Ive seen in over 2 years and this should be peak selling. More commentary below to follow
Thats +19!
Closed sales at 25 –
Total houses for sale 83 (73) with median of $2.1M ($1.85M)
Inventory is up 50% from last week. Like i have been reading in places like Calculated Risk its increasing everywhere not so much because of more supply but dimished demand.
Looking at the inventory there are great houses in every price range in lots of great neighborhoods. Maybe there are still multple offers to settle on some but still this number seems way low. We are finally positive year over year on inventory. Lets see what next week and the week after bring. With the inventory we have there should be pendings in the high 20’s if not 30’s this time of year. If not inventory will continue to grow even with limited new offerings.
Then the question is what next? Do sellers dig in their heels or reduce expectations? DaCounselor we may have our canary but then what next?[/quote]
Plus 19, wow. I looked at your numbers from this time last year and we were minus 11 for the 3rd week of May. Lots of minuses over the past few years overall, seems like more evidence of the winds of change you felt last month.
Yeah the Jacaranda listing is one data point in a sea of data, just find it interesting that it’s on its second price reduction (today) and down to the price of the sale of that floorplan in August ’21. So no bidding war, or even an offer? Agree that the time to sell that house at peak has probably passed.
What next? I’ve been bullish long-term big picture on SD for 30 years, with some specific bearish periods mixed in. Let’s just say my mood right now has more in common with a Grizzly than an Angus.
ParticipantDuring the beginning of the last RE price deflation did we see weakness in the inferior properties first? I’m wondering what will happen with this one and if it is a canary in the coal mine of sorts – arguably worst location in the neighborhood and it looks like it needs a complete update:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2801-Jacaranda-Ave-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16710664_zpid/
ParticipantOk I’m calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.
How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it’s first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.
Participant$3.5ish mil for the top end? Sure why not. How can I dispute that thought at this point LOL.
ParticipantA few months ago we talked about maybe seeing a spring close around $2.5 mil on a big boy 3500 sq. ft on Camino Serbal, and we end up getting one on sub 2800 sq. ft. at $2.44 mil. Who built that, Centex? All cash. Why the quick turnaround from last year’s sale?
Now it feels like $2.75-$3 mil for a big one on Serbal is in the cards before the end of the summer.
March 2, 2022 at 12:26 PM in reply to: Inventory: lack of overpriced listings is very bullish #824000ParticipantLike that one guy in La Costa Heights with the big lot who lists his house once a year or so? LOL I’m surprised not to have seen it listed for $6 mil recently.
March 2, 2022 at 12:26 PM in reply to: Inventory: lack of overpriced listings is very bullish #823999ParticipantLike that one guy in La Costa Heights with the big lot who lists his house once a year or so? LOL I’m surprised not to have seen it listed for $6 mil recently.
ParticipantPacifica Serena used to be 55+, once they lifted that restriction young families started moving in. I see an increasing number of duplexes there with 2nd stories added on. Without any addition, those places are tiny, can’t believe what they are selling for but just add that neighborhood to the list of all the other neighborhoods with closed prices that make you shake your head.
-
AuthorPosts